NCAA FB 2024-25 System Picks Week 7

**Aunty808** · 10-08-24, 05:31 PM

Adding to Group 1
54% FIU+16 @ Liberty

**Aunty808** · 10-08-24, 11:25 PM

Update

I should've added the Summary from last weeks post but was in a rush and missed posting it here.

Public Contest Dogs
Summary: Your best bets out of this Subset from the System will come from Groups 2 and 3. A team that also has a 4-3 consensus is the stronger pick in those groups.Group 1 should be the NO PLAY teams or PLAY ON the dogs to win the ML.

Group 1
53% Clemson @ WF+20'
54% FIU+16 @ Liberty

Group 2
55% Stanford+23 @ ND
56% Kan St @ Col+4
56% Cinn+3' @ UCF
57% Ohio St @ Oreg+3'
58% Texas @ Okl+14
59% Vandy+13' @ Kentucky

Group 3
62% UTSA @ Rice+6
==========================

Update
Group 1
51% Clemson @ WF+20'
If it falls out of the 50%, it's a NO PLAY.

**Aunty808** · 10-10-24, 11:51 AM

Update

Group 1 51%-54%
47% Clemson @ WF+20' NO PLAY
52% Ohio St @ Oreg +3' (was Group 2 @ 57%)
53% Penn St @ USC +4' (added)
54% No Ill +3 @ B Green ( added)
54% Cinn +3 @ UCF (was Group 2 @ 56%)

Group 2 55%-59%
58% Stanford+23 @ ND (was 55%)
57% Kan St @ Col+4 (was 56% / line now +3')
59% Texas @ Okl+14 (was 58%)
58% Vandy+13' @ Kentucky (was 59%)
57%% UTSA @ Rice+6 (was Group 3 @ 62%)

Group 3 60% -100%
N/A
==========================
Next update Friday evening/early Sat morning.
GL2A

**Aunty808** · 10-10-24, 02:13 PM

Breakdown for the UAB @ Army Game

UAB @ Army -26

I have some extra time on hand so I'll do the numbers for the UAB @ Army game.
For comparison, I'll first do the Army/Tulsa game from last week.

Team/SRS/Y-PAD-Y-RAD (Yards Per Pass Attempt Diff- Yards Per Rush Attempt Diff)
Army-14 +12.90/+4.2 - +5.0
Army passes for 10.3 yards per attempt and gives up 6.1 yards per attempt, difference of +4.2 yards.
Army rushes for 6.5 yards per attempt and gives up 1.5 yards per attempt, difference of +5.0 yards.

Tulsa -10.22/-4.0 - +.5
Tulsa passes for 5.8 yards per attempt and gives up 9.8 yards per attempt, difference of -4.0 yards.
Tulsa rushes for 4.3 yards per attempt and gives up 3.8 yards per attempt, difference of +.5 yards

Game Results
Army 48-7
Army passed for 26.6 yards per attempt and rushed for 8.0 yards per attempt.
Tulsa passed for 3.6 yards per attempt and rushed for 3.6 yards per attempt.
==============================

UAB -777/-.2 - -2.0
Army -26 +12.96/ +8.2 - +4.3

UAB passes for 6.4 yards per attempt and gives up 6.6 yards per attempt, difference of -.2 yards.
UAB rushes for 3.5 yards per attempt and gives up 5.7 yards per attempt, difference of -2.0 yards.

Army passes for 13.7 yards per attempt and gives up 5.5 yards per attempt, difference of +8.2 yards.
Army rushes for 6.8 yards per attempt and gives up 2.5 yards per attempt, difference of +4.3 yards.

Opinion: Army will shut down UAB's running game and force them to pass. UAB may have some success passing the ball, but will it be enough to keep up with Army?
The Military Academy teams are disciplined teams so I don't think penalties against Army will be a factor. IMHO, the only way Army loses this game will be due to turnovers.
But what do I know........that's why they play the game!

GL2A

**Aunty808** · 10-11-24, 07:13 PM

Update

7-0 Dogs
Mia Oh @ EMich +3'
Marsh @ Geo So +1'
AF+4 @ NMex

Update- Geo So is no longer a dog, now Marsh+1 . A trend that I follow is when a
team opens as an underdog, then turns to a favorite, that team becomes a FADE.
Marsh+1 is now a Public Contest Dog in Group 3 with a 58% consensus.

Group 1 51%-54%
WF+20' is no longer a play. (Clemson 56%)
54% FIU+16 @ Liberty 24-31 LW
51% Penn St @ USC +3' (line was +4')
52% Miss @ LSU +3'
53% Cinn+3 @ UCF
53% Mia Oh @ E Mich+2'

Group 2 55%-59%
Oreg+3 is no longer a play. (Ohio St 52%)
55% No Ill+3 @ B Green
57% Stanford +23 @ ND
57% Kan St @ Col+3'
58% Vandy+13' @ Kentucky
58% UTSA @ Rice +6
58% Marsh +1 @ Geo Sou
59% Texas @ Oklahoma +14'

**Aunty808** · 10-12-24, 10:42 AM

Final Update

Final Update

FADE THE DOG
Group 1 51%-54% YTD/ATS 1-3-0
Group 2 55%-59% YTD/ATS 2-0-2
Group 3 60%-100% YTD/ATS 5-1-0
Public Contest Dogs
Summary: Your best bets out of this Subset from the System will come from Groups 2 and 3. A team that also has a 4-3 consensus is the stronger pick in those groups.Group 1 should be the NO PLAY teams or PLAY ON the dogs to win the ML.

Group 1 51%-54%
WF+20' is no longer a play. (Clemson 56%)
54% FIU+16 @ Liberty 24-31 LW
51% Penn St @ USC +3' (line was +4')
54% No Ill+3 @ B Green

Group 2 55%-59%
Oreg+3 is no longer a play. (Ohio St 52%)
55% Cinn+3 @ UCF
55% No Ill+3 @ B Green
56% Miss @ LSU +3'
57% Kan St @ Col+3'
58% Stanford +23 @ ND
58% Vandy+13' @ Kentucky
**58% Marsh +1 @ Geo Sou (Play ON Marshall)
59% UTSA @ Rice +6
59% Texas @ Oklahoma +14'
59% Mia Oh @ E Mich+2'

** Geo So is no longer a dog, now Marsh+1 . A trend that I follow is when a
team opens as an underdog, then turns to a favorite, that team becomes a FADE.
Marsh+1 is now a Public Contest Dog in Group 3 with a 58% consensus.

Group 3
N/A

GL2A

**Aunty808** · 10-13-24, 01:45 PM

Results/Summary

Results/Summary
That dreaded week showed up. Regression sucks. Just makes me want to quit sometimes.

Instead of typing up the whole System Plays, I'll just summarize them here.
Overall System picks : ATS 21-27-4 (44.231%) -$870 Fake money (Contest)

Best Bets: Only survivors of this week's massacre were Army and Texas St.

Groups 1/2: I guess Vegas wanted to keep their dog players happy this week and let them win. Watch next week, they will be donating their winnings and the books will be more than happy to accept said donations.

Group 1: USC lost the game but won ATS by a half point. No Illinois moved to 55% and was no longer a Group 1 play. They won S/U so it was a good mistake leaving them there.

Group 2: Notre Dame and Texas showed up and won, while Marshall teased us with the lead only to give it up and lose the game, pushing ATS, thank you football Gods. Kansas St HAD a healthy lead but gave it up and let Colorado win ATS with the half point. The rest of the group got the memo from Vegas and didn't show up.

7-0 Fade the Dogs: Yippeeee! We won! Two for two, thank you Air Force and E Mich!

7-0 Play on the Fav: W Kentucky and BYU won, Maryland and ULMon didn't.

That's the skinny on Week 7. Total FAIL.

Moving on the Week 8, I am thinking of changing my strategy . Do all the numbers and just find the POY, GOM, LOCK....lol....type games.
I read too much. I read on another board about rushing/passing stats. I applied it using my Y-RAD stat to find the teams that fit that theory. Army and Boise St both popped out like a sore thumb. Army won by a wide margin while Boise ended up pushing ATS. I think they were enjoying their hawaiian vacation too much.
================================
At least I got the Army game right. They did shut down UAB's rushing game, forcing them to pass. They only had 4 penalties in the game. Here's the results of that game.

UAB Y-PAD 39/242( 6.2 yds) Y-RAD 24/61 (2.5 yds)
Army Y-PAD 8/102 (12.8 yds) Y-RAD 56/413 (7.4 yds)

Here's the stat that I read about rushing
Teams that outrush their opponents by 125 yards or more cover the line more than 80% as long as their opponent's average passing ypg is less than 220.

UAB 215.2 YPG and Army outrushed UAB by +352 yards. Winner winner, chicken dinner!
Although Boise St outrushed Hawaii by +215 yards, Hawaii didn't meet the YPG, which is 253.8 YPG.
Maybe I'll call these plays the RUN FORREST RUN plays.....lol....

Anyways, on to Week 8......
GL2A