NFL 2024-25 Dog Pound Picks

[Aunty808]

This is my all time favorite method finding the underdog plays in the NFL. No research, no stats. I've used this method for my online contest for many years. I never really tracked its win/loss record but there's been more winners than losers over the years I've played in this contest. I'll track it here this year.


Method is very simple. There's about 40K people in this nationwide contest.


Play ON any Road Dog with a consensus of less than 10%.
Play AGAINST any Road Fav with a consensus of more than 90%.


That's it. So far this season using my contest closing line to grade.


Week 1
7% Ariz+6' @ Buff 28-34 LW
6% NE+7' @ Cinn 16-10 MLDog


Week 2
4%LV+8' @ Balt 26-23 MLDog
5%Cinn @ KC 25-26 LW
4%Atl+5' @ Phil 22-21 MLDog


95%LAC @Car+4' 3-26 LL


Week 3
6%NYG+6' @ Clev 21-15 MLDog
8%Denver+6 @TB 26-7 MLDog
5%Car+5' @ LV 36-22 MLDog
4%Jax+4' @ Buff 10-47 LL


91%SF @ LAR+6 27-24 MLDog
======================================== ======


Week 4 Plays
6%Jax @ Hou (Jax+5')
5%NE@ SF (NE +10')

I didn't enter the contest yet so that's the current line today. I'll edit in the closing line after the games.

GL2A

[Aunty808]

Since I have no time for the NFL this year, I am just going to blindly tail an "Expert", with a couple of tweaks here and there.

Jax+5'/Hou
Minn+3/GB
Den/NYJ-7'
Cinn-4'/Car
Phil-1/TB
LAR+3/Chic
Pitt/Indy+2'

NO+2'?Atl
NE+10'/SF
Wash/Ariz-3'
Clev/LV+2'
KC/LAC+7'
Buff+2'/Balt

MNFTenn+1'/Mia
Sea/Det-3'

GL2A

[Aunty808]

Results Week 4

Week 4 Plays
ATS 1-1
6%Jax @ Hou (Jax+5') Jax lost 20-24 LW
5%NE@ SF (NE +10') NE lost 13-30 LL


Contest Picks
ATS 9-6 (60%)
Jax+5'/Hou 20-24 LW
Minn+3/GB 31-29 WW
Den/NYJ-7' 10-9 LL
Cinn-4'/Car 34-24 WW
Phil-1/TB 16-33 LL
LAR+3/Chic 18-24 LL
Pitt/Indy+2' 24-27 WW

NO+2'/Atl 24-26 LW
NE+10'/SF 13-30 LL
Wash/Ariz-3' 42-14 LL
Clev/LV+2' 16-20 WW
KC/LAC+7' 17-10 LW
Buff+2'/Balt 10-35 LL

MNF
Tenn+1'/Mia 31-12 ww
Sea/Det-3' 29-42 ww
=========================

Week 5 Plays (Early Look) Will update as needed.
9% NYJ @Minn
6%Clev @Wash
4%Ariz @SF
4%NYG @Sea

[Aunty808]

Week 5 Plays (Early Look) Will update as needed.9% NYJ @Minn6%Clev @Wash4%Ariz @SF4%NYG @Sea


Updated today
10% NYJ @Minn (no play)
6% Clev @Wash
4% Ariz @SF
3% NYG @Sea

[Aunty808]

Week 5 Plays

7%Clev @Wash
4%Ariz @SF
3%NYG @Sea

[Aunty808]

Results

Week 5 Plays

7%Clev+3' @Wash 13-34 LL
4%Ariz+7' @SF 24-23 MLDog Winner
3%NYG+6 @Sea 29-20 MLDog Winner
============================

Week 6 (Early Look)
Play ON the Road Dog
4% Clev @ Phil
Clev sucks. Personal opinion.

FADE the Road FAV
97% Hou @ NE
96% Atl @ Car
91% Pitt @ LV

Will update throughout the week.

GL2A

[Aunty808]

Update

Week 6 (Early Look)
Play ON the Road Dog
4% Clev @ Phil
Clev sucks. Personal opinion.

FADE the Road FAV
97% Hou @ NE
97% Atl @ Car (was 96%)
89% Pitt @ LV (was 91%)


Next update late Sat/ early Sunday.

GL2A

[Aunty808]

Final Update

Week 6
Play ON the Road Dog
4% Clev @ Phil
Clev sucks. Watson sucks. Personal opinion.

FADE the Road FAV
97% Hou @ NE
97% Atl @ Car


GL2A

[Aunty808]

Results

Week 6
4% Clev+8 @ Phil 16-20 LW

97% Hou @ NE+6' 21-41 LL
97% Atl @ Car+6 20-38 LL


Week 7 (Early Look)
Play ON the Road Dog
1% Tenn @ Buffalo
2% Car @ Wash

Sitting on the fence
10% Mia @ Indy


FADE the Road FAV
91% Cinn @ Clev
90% Phil @ NYG

GL2A

[Aunty808]

Final Update

Week 7 Plays
Play ON the Road Dog
1% Tenn @ Buffalo
2% Car @ Wash

FADE the Road FAV
91% Cinn @ Clev

GL2A

[Aunty808]

Results

Week 7 Plays
Play ON the Road Dog
1% Tenn+9' @ Buffalo 10-34 LL
2% Car+10' @ Wash 7-40 LL

FADE the Road FAV
91% Cinn-5 @ Clev 21-14 LL

These dogs are very, very bad dogs, as in very, very BAD!


Week 8 (Early Look)

Play ON the Road Dog
(Scary Halloween Picks)
1% Tenn @ Det (My Team!)
1% Car @ Den
3% NYG @ Pitt
7% Indy @ Hou
8% NO @ LAC

FADE the Road Fav
99% Balt @ Clev
97% KC @ LVR
96% Minn @ LAR
96% GB @ Jax
92% NYJ @ NE

FYI: There's just shy of 40K players in this contest.

GL2A

[Aunty808]

Update after MNF Games

Week 8 (Early Look)

Play ON the Road Dog
(Scary Halloween Picks)
1% Tenn @ Det (My Team!)
1% Car @ Den
2% NYG @ Pitt
6% Indy @ Hou
9% NO @ LAC

FADE the Road Fav
99% Balt @ Clev
97% KC @ LVR
96% GB @ Jax
95% Minn @ LAR
90% NYJ @ NE

[Aunty808]

Update before Thurs Night Game

Week 8

Play ON the Road Dog
(Scary Halloween Picks)
1% Tenn @ Det (My Team!)
2% Car @ Den
3% NYG @ Pitt
8% Indy @ Hou
9% NO @ LAC

FADE the Road Fav
98% Balt @ Clev
96% KC @ LVR
95% GB @ Jax
94% Minn @ LAR
89% NYJ @ NE (NO PLAY)

[Aunty808]

Final Update

Week 8 System Plays

Play ON the Road Dog
(Scary Halloween Picks)
1% Tenn @ Det (My Team!)
2% Car @ Den
3% NYG @ Pitt
8% Indy @ Hou
9% NO @ LAC

FADE the Road Fav
98% Balt @ Clev
96% KC @ LVR
94% GB @ Jax
93% Minn @ LAR+3 WW 30-20

GL2A

[Aunty808]

Week 8 Picks

Sometimes I forget to post the picks, but so far this season, capper I've been tailing is....
Season Total 58,252% ATS
Last Week 60% ATS

Line used is the one listed at the site where the picks are listed.
Week 8Rams+3 vs Minn WW 30-20
Phil +2' @ Cinn
Balt @ Clev +9
Tenn +11 @ Detroit
Indy +5 @ Hou
GB-4 @ Jax
Ariz +4' @ Mia
NYJ-7 @ NE
Atl @ TB+2'
NO +7 @ LAC
Buff -3 @ Sea
Car +11 @ Den
Chi @ Wash +3
Dallas @ SF -4
NYG @ Pitt -6
KC/LV no pick (10)

GL2A

[Aunty808]

Results Week 8/ Week 9 ( Early Look )


Results
Week 8 System Plays

Play ON the Road Dog
1% Tenn+12' @ Det LL 14-52
2% Car+13 @ Den LL 14-28
3% NYG+6 @ Pitt (Pending)
8% Indy+4' @ Hou LW 20-23
9% NO+7' @ LAC LL 8-26

FADE the Road Fav
98% Balt @ Clev+7' WW MLDOG Winner! 29-24
Watson sucks. Jameis does not. Personal Opinion.

96% KC @ LVR+8' LW 20-27
94% GB @ Jax+3' LW 27-30
93% Minn @ LAR+3 WW MLDOG Winner!30-20
============

I like looking at the numbers on Monday mornings to see how the public reacts to the games just played.IMHO, it paints a true picture of how the "public" will be betting this week. I read alot of discussion boards and I can see the posts saying Tua is done, take Buffalo, or Cinn will bounce back at home, or Philly's gonna beat up on Jax cause they won big yesterday and of course, Minn is not that bad, right? They'll bounce back this week, not to mention the QB for Indy quit on the team yesterday...seriously, did he actually say he was "tired"? OMG....Anyways, who knows with the NFL, your guess is as good as mine.

Week 9 (Early Look)
Play ON the Road Dog
1% Jax @ Phil
3% Mia @ Buffalo
4% Indy @ Minn
8% LV @ Cinn
8% TB @ KC

Play Against the Road Fav
97% Wash @ NYG

GL2A

[MOBIL19]

Too cool to recap?

[Aunty808]

Too cool to recap?

Recap what? I was just rambling in the previous post.......next time I'll just post the plays and results and keep my ramblings to myself.......

[Aunty808]

or maybe I'll just let this thread go to the graveyard.