"lock" of the week? Football only

[94dc4]

Interested who sees anything that jumps of the board this week, college or NFL. List only one or two of your faves, with or without reason.

Week 1 for me was Georgia -12.5
Week 2 Texas -5.5 and -6.5 and Tennessee -6.5(right when it came out)

This week
BC +17 at Missouri. Simply, I trust Bill O'Brien game planning to keep it within this number. Bought it up to +17.5 because I hate a potential push.
Colts were -3 now -3.5 +118 @ Green Bay. I bought them down to -2.5 from -3. I don't see Malik Willis being able to keep up with the Colts offense, PERIOD. This could be a blowout if he turns it over a few times.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good Luck, dc. FWIW, Willis has never thrown a TD pass in an NFL game.

Guy is pretty bad. Amazing that they don't have a better option.

[Thefix13]

Good Luck, dc. FWIW, Willis has never thrown a TD pass in an NFL game.

Guy is pretty bad. Amazing that they don't have a better option.

Tough when you pay the starting qb the bag.

[homie1975]

Good Luck, dc. FWIW, Willis has never thrown a TD pass in an NFL game.

Guy is pretty bad. Amazing that they don't have a better option.

watch him come out and light up indy lol

here are his career stats. everyone has to start somewhere. maybe malik will shock the world?

[COLOR=var(--color-emphasized,#000)]NFL career statistics

[COLOR=var(--color-subtle,#54595d)][[/COLOR]edit[COLOR=var(--color-subtle,#54595d)]][/COLOR][/COLOR]

8	3	1–2	31	61	50.8	276	4.5	48	0	3	42.8	27	123	4.6	17	1	10	49	3	2
3	0	—	4	5	80.0	74	14.8	48	0	0	118.8	5	21	4.2	11	0	4	30	1	1
1	0	—	0	1	0.0	0	0.0	0	0	0	39.6	0	0	0.0	0	0	1	4	0	0

[Art Vandelay]

Good Luck, dc. FWIW, Willis has never thrown a TD pass in an NFL game.

Guy is pretty bad. Amazing that they don't have a better option.

Agreed, I'd rather have Tannehill if we have to have an ex-Titan at QB. Interesting weekend up here - Both Bucky and the Pack home dogs - Bet that hasn't happened on same weekend in 10-15 years

[homie1975]

for anyone who thinks betting against a first time starter is a good idea, see Cooper Rush in 2022 when dak got hurt.
he went like 4-1 in his first 5 games?

tyson bagent last year for the bears after justin fields got hurt? tyson is from a small school, but look how he did?

jake browning for cincy last year after joe burrow went down?

why is the line only Indy -3.5?

looks to good to be true, right?

this is why the sportsbooks own 99% of bettors.

they trap them.

[homie1975]

Agreed, I'd rather have Tannehill if we have to have an ex-Titan at QB. Interesting weekend up here - Both Bucky and the Pack home dogs - Bet that hasn't happened on same weekend in 10-15 years

Bucky is a DOUBLE DIGIT home dog !!!

[Art Vandelay]

Bucky is a DOUBLE DIGIT home dog !!!

Bama & its pushing 17! Camp Randall will be nuts but the game might not be pretty...

[94dc4]

for anyone who thinks betting against a first time starter is a good idea, see Cooper Rush in 2022 when dak got hurt.
he went like 4-1 in his first 5 games?

tyson bagent last year for the bears after justin fields got hurt? tyson is from a small school, but look how he did?

jake browning for cincy last year after joe burrow went down?

why is the line only Indy -3.5?

looks to good to be true, right?

this is why the sportsbooks own 99% of bettors.

they trap them.

Lafleur and the rest of the team are good+. Can Willis not LOSE the game I think is the question. His appearances in the NFL DO NOT pass my eyeball test. Cowboys overall team when Rush took the help was playing out of their minds.

As a bears fan when Bagent took over, he brought some juice/flare to the table. Certainly not comparable in total team talent etc as the Packers this year or Dallas.

Unless Anthony Richardson shits the bed, I really like my -2.5.

[94dc4]

Bama & its pushing 17! Camp Randall will be nuts but the game might not be pretty...

Not sure what to make of this line considering USF hung in there pretty good with Bama till the very end. Gonna be an electric stadium, for at least a drive or two haha.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bama & its pushing 17! Camp Randall will be nuts but the game might not be pretty...

Art, here is my main issue with thinking Bucky. It's very rare to get an SEC team to play in the North.

If you told me there was going to be a cold front, I'd think WISC. As is, I expect Alab to be very comfortable. JMHO, I don't see an upset scenario.

[actiondan]

da bears. don’t need the pts

[DJK]

for anyone who thinks betting against a first time starter is a good idea, see Cooper Rush in 2022 when dak got hurt.
he went like 4-1 in his first 5 games?

tyson bagent last year for the bears after justin fields got hurt? tyson is from a small school, but look how he did?

jake browning for cincy last year after joe burrow went down?

why is the line only Indy -3.5?

looks to good to be true, right?

this is why the sportsbooks own 99% of bettors.

they trap them.

You think and over-analyze things WAY too much.

[DJK]

da bears. don’t need the pts

Are you sure about that? Personally, I think the bears are going to get killed.

[actiondan]

2 unit play for me. i circled this game in the offseason. you may be right though

[homie1975]

You think and over-analyze things WAY too much.

20 years of betting i have won 56% of my bets.

it works.

[DJK]

20 years of betting i have won 56% of my bets.

it works.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?t=3742429&page=2&p=31341798&viewfull=1#post31341798

If I tail you the rest of the way in NFL, I'm going to make money then?

[DJK]

2 unit play for me. i circled this game in the offseason. you may be right though

Nobody knows who's going to cover the spread.

All I know is that the Bears' O was pretty shitty and it was their D that won the game for them mainly due to the mistakes by the Titans.

Texans' O isn't bad like the Titans' and if the Bears' O doesn't show up, they are dead.

[DJK]

Interested who sees anything that jumps of the board this week, college or NFL. List only one or two of your faves, with or without reason.

Week 1 for me was Georgia -12.5
Week 2 Texas -5.5 and -6.5 and Tennessee -6.5(right when it came out)

This week
BC +17 at Missouri. Simply, I trust Bill O'Brien game planning to keep it within this number. Bought it up to +17.5 because I hate a potential push.
Colts were -3 now -3.5 +118 @ Green Bay. I bought them down to -2.5 from -3. I don't see Malik Willis being able to keep up with the Colts offense, PERIOD. This could be a blowout if he turns it over a few times.

I should tail you on these picks considering that you are running hot.

However, it's tough betting against Missouri with their SOLID defense and pretty decent offense. I like Boston College's QB, but he isn't really a passer, so if he gets stopped from being able to run then what?

Besides, Boston College is playing pretty good so why is the line so high on Missouri?

[homie1975]

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...1#post31341798

If I tail you the rest of the way in NFL, I'm going to make money then?

way to cherry pick one post.

i missed your picks Nostradamus

post your plays this week Big Boy

[homie1975]

I should tail you on these picks considering that you are running hot.

However, it's tough betting against Missouri with their SOLID defense and pretty decent offense. I like Boston College's QB, but he isn't really a passer, so if he gets stopped from being able to run then what?

Besides, Boston College is playing pretty good so why is the line so high on Missouri?

what kind of a follower (loser) tails people's plays?

make a pick for crying out loud You Poser

[homie1975]

why is the colts line over packers only 3?

does the market not feel confident about a 22yo starting qb for Indy who has only started 5 games in his career, now playing on the road on natural turf ?

[94dc4]

I should tail you on these picks considering that you are running hot.

However, it's tough betting against Missouri with their SOLID defense and pretty decent offense. I like Boston College's QB, but he isn't really a passer, so if he gets stopped from being able to run then what?

Besides, Boston College is playing pretty good so why is the line so high on Missouri?

If BC can convert a handful of first downs and a couple scores at the most, they cover. Ball control is what I’m banking on keeping this spread covered. I’m trusting the qb legs to make the first downs happen ENOUGH.

[94dc4]

why is the colts line over packers only 3?

does the market not feel confident about a 22yo starting qb for Indy who has only started 5 games in his career, now playing on the road on natural turf ?

eyeball test for me. I actually WATCH too much football. Willis doesn’t seem to have it above the shoulders, tons of talent/athleticism but even back to liberty lots of wtf moments for me. Shane stiken(sp) is Uber aggressive, he gets pack down a couple scores it could get real ugly.

[homie1975]

eyeball test for me. I actually WATCH too much football. Willis doesn’t seem to have it above the shoulders, tons of talent/athleticism but even back to liberty lots of wtf moments for me. Shane stiken(sp) is Uber aggressive, he gets pack down a couple scores it could get real ugly.

steichen.

you make a good point about him being aggressive.

i, too, watch a lot of football and i watched him play multiple times at liberty after he left auburn.

liberty scheduled up so they played some decent teams and his college stats were 63% passing for 48 TD's and 18 int's, while rushing 366 times for 2131 yards at a 5.8 yds per rush avg clip and 29 TD's.

he gets the whole week with the starting offense all reps.

i think it is just as likely to be his coming out party on sunday as it is the colts will win and cover.

after watching cooper rush take over for dak in dallas in 2022 and win his first 4 or 5 games and then last year tyson bagent in chicago play so well at home and win, i have come to the conclusion that even back up quarterbacks from no name schools (look up where rush and bagent went to school, it is hilarious) are so well coached and prepared these days with game plans built off metrics and data analytics, that is just too risky.

also, when new guys start for fallen stars, in the very first game, the guys around tend to really step up their game to protect the new player as much as possible. so 21 guys out of 22 on GB will likely play the hardest yes the hardest (they are human beings) they have ever played this sunday.

GL to you.

i lean PACKERS plus the points or no play.

no way i am giving points on the road with THAT defense from indy.

[94dc4]

I don't see the Colts squandering this gift with Love out. Load the box, stop the run, make Willis beat you. I don't see Willis being able to do it. If the Colts can get some points on the board early I envision a 10+ point win before the pack covering +3. This is why I love sports betting and football in general though, we will just see.

[homie1975]

Gl 94