Wild Card Weekend Picks and Analysis

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-12-24, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by trobin31

Cleveland Browns -2, Money line and -6.5

several key trends i like just based on QBs, Flacco wild card undefeated, rookie QBs etc

Sos clearly in Browns favor but when you look even further Texans have beaten absolutely nobody

Browns have the best player on either side of the ball in Miles Garrett and OL/DL matchup in passing for Houston is whopping -75%, so high probability Stroud is running for his life, taking sacks and making mistakes we might not being accustomed to seeing him make

coaching advantage Browns, scheme advantage browns

the only reason I can find not to back the Browns here is the running game advantage but this isn’t even a substantial edge

Houston teasers going through 3 and the 7 are going to be a big bingo card for bettors and it seems books are welcoming and even baiting with reverse line move on Houston

I say Browns in a double digit win & Texans tt under 21.5

Good Luck, tr. Pretty solid writeup.

I (for one) will be looking to see if Garrett is wreaking havoc.

**franz555** · 01-12-24, 03:59 PM

Love that Cleveland Defense ( Garrett is a beast ). Its a bit alarming that they give up an avg of 30+ pts on the road.

Tough one for me

BOL Trobin

**lakerboy** · 01-12-24, 04:54 PM

Good luck.

EVERYONE is on Cleveland.

Houston is the only dog that might win imo

**Da Manster!** · 01-12-24, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Good luck.

EVERYONE is on Cleveland.

Houston is the only dog that might win imo

I think the Rams, Packers, and Bucs are live dogs that can win their games outright as well let alone cover the spread!

**trobin31** · 01-12-24, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Good luck.

EVERYONE is on Cleveland.

Houston is the only dog that might win imo

It certainly feels that way but I see lots of people on SBR on Houston, sooooo?

**Da Manster!** · 01-12-24, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by trobin31

It certainly feels that way but I see lots of people on SBR on Houston, sooooo?

and so are some sharps and some public money as well. Line has dropped to (-2)!...

**trobin31** · 01-12-24, 06:02 PM

Yeah I referenced the reverse line movement in my analysis.

I think this was due to Denzel Ward injury in practice and Robert woods trending back

**gauchojake** · 01-13-24, 01:56 AM

Line screams HOU

**DJK** · 01-13-24, 07:11 AM

Whatever below means... It's enough for me to take the Browns on ML and hope that their defense holds up against Stroud.

Besides, Flacco's away record in playoffs seems pretty decent whatever it is.

Stat to know: Stroud's weakness is solving man coverage. While he has the highest QBR in the league against zone coverage (74), he ranks 27th against man (39). His QBR decline of 35.1 is the largest from zone to man coverage this season. This weekend, Stroud will face a Browns defense that runs man coverage at the 10th-highest rate (47%) and has the best man defense in the league.

**DJK** · 01-13-24, 07:12 AM

Also, if there is anyone to tail on SBR, it's trobin31.

**Headsterx** · 01-13-24, 09:11 AM

Originally posted by gauchojake

Line screams HOU

I’ll scream if Texans don’t win.
🤣🤣🤣

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-13-24, 09:15 AM

Originally posted by gauchojake

Line screams HOU

Great line for 2-way action, IMHO.

**homie1975** · 01-13-24, 11:09 AM

Originally posted by Da Manster!

I think the Rams, Packers, and Bucs are live dogs that can win their games outright as well let alone cover the spread!

1% chance Packers win in Dallas.

only real chance is if Dak gets hurt.

other than that they are going to get run out of the stadium by 14.

**homie1975** · 01-13-24, 11:10 AM

Originally posted by trobin31

Cleveland Browns -2, Money line and -6.5

several key trends i like just based on QBs, Flacco wild card undefeated, rookie QBs etc

Sos clearly in Browns favor but when you look even further Texans have beaten absolutely nobody

Browns have the best player on either side of the ball in Miles Garrett and OL/DL matchup in passing for Houston is whopping -75%, so high probability Stroud is running for his life, taking sacks and making mistakes we might not being accustomed to seeing him make

coaching advantage Browns, scheme advantage browns

the only reason I can find not to back the Browns here is the running game advantage but this isn’t even a substantial edge

Houston teasers going through 3 and the 7 are going to be a big bingo card for bettors and it seems books are welcoming and even baiting with reverse line move on Houston

I say Browns in a double digit win & Texans tt under 21.5

GL TRobbie !

**OldBill** · 01-13-24, 11:44 AM

no shit really stone cold rookie that ws out couple games in season in HOU if Browns lose this one lol the marc lawrence playbook curse is only reason but they lose after this vs top afc teams

all you need to look at is ther div steelers rookie qb replace ments Cincy eliminated qb burrow injury 0-2 start

**Da Manster!** · 01-13-24, 11:56 AM

Originally posted by OldBill

no shit really stone cold rookie that ws out couple games in season in HOU if Browns lose this one lol the marc lawrence playbook curse is only reason but they lose after this vs top afc teams

all you need to look at is ther div steelers rookie qb replace ments Cincy eliminated qb burrow injury 0-2 start

Can someone please translate this for me!...

**lakerboy** · 01-13-24, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by da manster!

can someone please translate this for me!...

maga

**homie1975** · 01-13-24, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by OldBill

no shit really stone cold rookie that ws out couple games in season in HOU if Browns lose this one lol the marc lawrence playbook curse is only reason but they lose after this vs top afc teams

all you need to look at is ther div steelers rookie qb replace ments Cincy eliminated qb burrow injury 0-2 start

are you drunk ?

**trobin31** · 01-13-24, 12:47 PM

Dolphins 1st Half +3.5 & 1H ML, full game +5

injuries, especially on defensive side of ball are reason for this line, which likely much closer to PK if dolphins fully healthy, that’s a big swing

I don’t trust Tua and have always debated w my fellow Phins fans that Tua just ain’t that guy who is gonna make plays at end of games and makes some really aweful Kirk Cousins like interceptions. However,

best player, right now, on either side of the ball belongs to Miami, Tyreek ‘the Cheetah” I would also argue at this moment the other best player is D’Von Achane. Yeah, I said it. Next would be Mahomes, then C Jones, then Waddle. Again, I am saying playing their best right now. Not career.

the biggest reason I am drawing a line in the sand and taking Miami here is the distinctive advantage Miami has in the ground game. In a game expecting wind gusts, the running back and wide receiver ability to take a touch to the house at any moment from anywhere on the field lies squarely on Miami’s side.

Coaching, defensively KC with Spagnolo is probably a HOF coach as a def coordinator, so that’s worrisome. So, the hope here is Miami can grab an early lead and stay within the number before Spagnolo figures out Miami game plan and adjusts second half

if we can get this to play out like how I think it might with Miami controlling ealry, then we may have an optimal hedging opportunity buying back on KC

**trobin31** · 01-13-24, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by OldBill

no shit really stone cold rookie that ws out couple games in season in HOU if Browns lose this one lol the marc lawrence playbook curse is only reason but they lose after this vs top afc teams

all you need to look at is ther div steelers rookie qb replace ments Cincy eliminated qb burrow injury 0-2 start

As sbr’s official OlBill translator: Browns losing would really reinforce his bias against teams on the Marc Lawrence playbook. He feels Browns have gotten lucky with Steelers and Bengals having QB injuries.

**Da Manster!** · 01-13-24, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by trobin31

As sbr’s official OlBill translator: Browns losing would really reinforce his bias against teams on the Marc Lawrence playbook. He feels Browns have gotten lucky with Steelers and Bengals having QB injuries.

Damn Trobin! I knew you were a man of many talents but I didn't realize that you speak OldBillnese!!!...

**gauchojake** · 01-13-24, 02:56 PM

This guy's practice is full of Old Bills he has to know how to speak the language

**trobin31** · 01-13-24, 06:07 PM

So far Browns defensive has been shredded

referees have 100% impacted this game thus far. First w non PI call on Ndjoku and also blatant illegal hits

This is now Houston’s game to run the ball down Cleveland’s throats unless Cleveland steps up and makes defensive plays

**pablo222** · 01-13-24, 06:39 PM

Originally posted by Da Manster!

Can someone please translate this for me!...

**swordsandtequila** · 01-13-24, 06:49 PM

Originally posted by trobin31

So far Browns defensive has been shredded

referees have 100% impacted this game thus far. First w non PI call on Ndjoku and also blatant illegal hits

This is now Houston’s game to run the ball down Cleveland’s throats unless Cleveland steps up and makes defensive plays

Stop. One missed PI that wasn't that egregious. Nothing to do with Cleveland's pass defense getting lit up by a rookie. Or Cleveland's veteran qb throwing pick 6's. As good as the Brown's defense is, they were awful on the road this year in points against. And their offense led the league in turnovers. The margin is somewhat surprising, but assuming Houston holds on the outcome isn't.

**Renegades** · 01-13-24, 07:02 PM

Should have known that Flacco could lay an egg at any moment. Thats his career in a nutshell

**trobin31** · 01-13-24, 07:53 PM

Is it too late to say this was a jinx post?

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-13-24, 07:57 PM

Originally posted by trobin31

Is it too late to say this was a jinx post?

Never happened.

**DrunkHorseplayer** · 01-13-24, 10:40 PM

Originally posted by Da Manster!

Can someone please translate this for me!...

He started doing this around the time jj left.

**bjb7223** · 01-13-24, 10:45 PM

Originally posted by Da Manster!

Can someone please translate this for me!...

**Housemoney** · 01-13-24, 11:07 PM

Took the Browns and the Dolphins too. Time to regroup for tomorrow so I’m not paying the bookie this week.