NFL week 17 - Contrarian Angles

**Nate rasta** · 12-29-22, 12:12 PM

Happy new year Chuck, I like your Tennessee pick,Tennessee definitely has the motivational Edge

**pologq** · 12-29-22, 12:20 PM

i am going contrarian and picking the seahawks at home. i think the jets are getting overvalued. i got it at +2. i think it is +1.5 now. the hawks should not be underdog and are playing for the playoffs. mike white is not a savior.

if hall did not get hurt i think wilson would be doing better and the jets would be continuing to be hot. losing hall killed the season.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 12-29-22, 12:47 PM

Originally posted by Nate rasta

Happy new year Chuck, I like your Tennessee pick,Tennessee definitely has the motivational Edge

Thank you, Nate! Just a wing a prayer at this point.

Put it this way on the TENN game. They COULD win. But it will likely take some big plays from a bench player you've never heard of.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 12-29-22, 12:49 PM

Originally posted by pologq

i am going contrarian and picking the seahawks at home. i think the jets are getting overvalued. i got it at +2. i think it is +1.5 now. the hawks should not be underdog and are playing for the playoffs. mike white is not a savior.

if hall did not get hurt i think wilson would be doing better and the jets would be continuing to be hot. losing hall killed the season.

Thank you, Polo. I'll put you down. Good Luck.

Very good insights, per usual. Hall had the game-breaking run at Denver. Might lose there otherwise.

And you're right on White. If that's the guy you're counting on, have to question the depth at that position.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 12-29-22, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by agendaman

chucky-you might have an ok bet.dall may want to rest some guys.just win the game by say 7 pts. or less.run ezekiel and pollard.play good defense.

Thx, Agenda. We will see. I agree that I don't think you'll see Dak playing four full quarters.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 12-29-22, 09:49 PM

Not that anyone cares:

*I'm putting about half of my Titan exposure on (2h) Dallas -4.5.

Can't believe I get a chance to get out of this mess. At 10-6, it looks like a real game.

But the Titans have been fortunate. Cmon, Dobbs has only been there for 8 days.

Chance to cut down on my exposure. When Vrabel announced the list of guys sitting out...it's like a General telling his front-line to take one for the team.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 12-29-22, 09:52 PM

Titans start w/ the ball. But is that a good thing?

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 12-31-22, 12:38 AM

Summary of picks:
102 TENN +10L
103 Carolina +3
105 Cleveland +2
119 Denver +13.5
124 SEATTLE +2
126 LAS VEGAS +5.5

128 GREEN BAY -3
129 LA Rams +6.5

Adding Polo's play on Seahawks.

Boy, my read on the Tenn/Dall game was wrong. Of course, I'm 2nd-guessing myself on that one.

You see Dead Rubbers in week 18, not so often in week 17. I knew about the Tie-Breaker situation. EZ to say now, maybe I should have thought it through differently.

When Vrabel released the sit-out list, I knew it was bad news. He effectively punted the game.

Michaels/Herbstreit were talking up one angle that I didn't give much credence. They talked about a good showing from Dobbs potentially elevating him above Willis. I took it more as Vrabel simply resting Willis and putting out a live body for fodder.

**iwantcougars** · 01-01-23, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by iwantcougars

cleveland +2, similar teams but wash qb controversy is too much

cash it, money to the bank

**pologq** · 01-01-23, 05:57 PM

Originally posted by iwantcougars

cleveland +2, similar teams but wash qb controversy is too much

solid call

**pologq** · 01-01-23, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by edawg

Denver +13.5

solid call as well

**edawg** · 01-01-23, 07:27 PM

Originally posted by pologq

solid call as well

Right back at you nice call on the Hawks!

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-01-23, 07:31 PM

Summary of picks:
102 TENN +10L
103 Carolina +3L
105 Cleveland +2W
119 Denver +13.5W
124 SEATTLE +2W
126 LAS VEGAS +5.5W

128 GREEN BAY -3W
129 LA Rams +6.5L

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-01-23, 07:31 PM

Great job, guys. 5-3 ATS. Another winning week.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-01-23, 07:36 PM

Cougar, Browns were a beautiful thing. Crushed WASH when they were the team that had everything to gain.

Edawg, what a great pick. I tailed the +13.5. I knew it was good when the Talking Heads said they would need THIRTY points to feel good with Denver.

Polo, Seahags wire-to-wire. You know something is awry when the Jet backers are celebrating the return of folk hero Mike White.

Jack, you did it the hard way. I thought it was a great value spot after the long string of Purdy wins. You know it's a great pick when it even covers the EARLY # (b4 Carr situation was announced).

Nate, awesome. Packers just rolled. As if to say the records are a fluke.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-01-23, 07:39 PM

wk01: 5-2 ATS
wk02: 10-0 ATS
wk03: 10-1 ATS.
wk04: 10-8 ATS
wk05: 7-6 ATS
wk06: 8-4 ATS
wk07: 7-8 ATS

wk08: 9-8 ATS
wk09: 1-5 ATS (one push)
wk10: 7-5 ATS
wk 11: 4-6ATS
wk 12: 4-5 ATS
wk13: 4-6 ATS
wk14: 5-1 ATS
wk15: 4-2 ATS
wk16: 5-3 ATS
wk17: 5-3 ATS
YTD: 105-73 ATS (.590)
(vs -110) +24.7 units

Land on 59% for the year! Very impressive. Thanks again to the contributors.

I'll be back with some closing remarks later. It's not easy to hit 59% over a full season on a sport lined as tightly as the NFL.

**agendaman** · 01-01-23, 11:06 PM

my bad fellas.rams just want season to end.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-01-23, 11:08 PM

Originally posted by agendaman

my bad fellas.rams just want season to end.

No worries, Agenda. Wasn't any worse than my pick.

Will be interesting to see how motivated the Rams are next week at SEA. They've shown glimpses.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-03-23, 09:50 PM

Some Closing Remarks. This thread has taken some effort. If it's too easy, the results would probably show.

First off, really appreciate everyone's efforts. A lot of consistent contributors and some part-time contributors. Thanks to one and all.

I'm of the opinion that you can always learn from someone else. I feel like the posts in this weekly thread were very well thought out. I can say that I used the information in this thread to filter my own Personal Plays.

It's Sports-Gambling, so no one has a Crystal Ball (except for maybe Nate and Edawg). If you bet games long enough, you're invariably going to regret a play or two. I can confidently say that anyone who tailed more than a few picks from this thread...had to clear a profit!

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-03-23, 09:53 PM

Want to recognize some of the consistent contributors. And there's a chance I'll miss someone who posted intermittently:

*Nate Rasta. Has to be the League MVP. By my count, he wound up the year 13-2 ATS (with one push and no pick in week 1). Awesome, Nate. Your read on the games was spot-on.

*Edawg. If Nate was the league MVP, Edawg has to be a strong runner-up. I don't recall him missing more than 2 or 3 picks. When my Personal pick lined up w/ edawg, it was a comforting feeling.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-03-23, 09:56 PM

*Jackpot269. Tell me this wasn't fun, Jack. Felt like your vantage point was just right. Betting on NFL games...and printing some Dead Presidents? Yes, sign me up for that.

*Agendaman. Always looked forward to your posts, Agenda. Your knowledge of the league showed. Always looked forward to who you were landing on. I was with you on the Packers in Miami, very nice.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-03-23, 09:58 PM

*PoloGQ. Polo always exhibited good instinct on what sides might represent value. Always looked forward to see who you were sniffing out as Value. Thank you for posting, Polo.

*TheLock. This guy had to hit about 60% for the year. Thank you, Lock.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 01-03-23, 10:06 PM

*USCPhillyGuy. This guy can sniff out a winner, boys. Was always comforting to see a game where I lined up on the same side as Philly. Philly's alarm bell goes off when a # doesn't look right. See the Phi/Ariz game. Hope all is good, Philly. Have a good 2023.

*OldBill. I wanted to acknowledge this guy! Bill, you're saving me $$. Who needs Wild Turkey when I can just read your posts? I actually try to digest every one of your posts. They spin my head, but in a good way. I know there are lessons to be learned in there somewhere. Maybe you can write a book with a working title of "NFL Biorhythms: A Master Thesis". Best of Luck, Bill, have a great 2023.

Anyway, that wraps it, boys. Thank you. And Happy 2023.

**Nate rasta** · 01-03-23, 11:06 PM

Thanks Chuck.this was a great thread. Had a fun and great time posting in here. Thanks for shedding light on the contrarian angle,it really helped me in my weekly pics

**agendaman** · 01-03-23, 11:25 PM

many thanks for everything chucky.your contrarian angle thread was well respected across the entire SBR FORUM .so take care everyone.we shall meet here next year.