NFL week 15 - Contrarian Angles

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'd lay out the parameters as such:
1) Limit of one pick per week for a given poster.
2) Totals are fair game.
3) Quote a current price (vs -110 line or better). Can't just say "Team A".
4) List a reason WHY you are Fading a team...and why you LIKE the team you're backing. Have to state why you think the play is counter-intuitive and therefore likely to represent value.
5) Goal of the thread is to identify sides which the public likes. If the public is too high on said side, then contrarian side should have line value.

That's how I'd describe it. In addition to fading a certain team, the side we're backing often feels like it's a tough bet to make.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

wk01: 5-2 ATS
wk02: 10-0 ATS
wk03: 10-1 ATS.
wk04: 10-8 ATS
wk05: 7-6 ATS
wk06: 8-4 ATS
wk07: 7-8 ATS

wk08: 9-8 ATS
wk09: 1-5 ATS (one push)
wk10: 7-5 ATS
wk 11: 4-6ATS
wk 12: 4-5 ATS
wk13: 4-6 ATS
wk14: 5-1 ATS
YTD: 91-65 ATS (.583)
(vs -110) +19.5 units

[edawg]

Tampa Bay Yuccaneers +3.5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Tampa Bay Yuccaneers +3.5

Thank, dawg. Good Luck.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: 307 Indy Colts +4. (Fading: Vikings).

Can easily match or beat +4 (-110). +4 (-106) is available.

Number looks too short. How can a 10-3 team be Home laying only 4 pts to a team this bad?

The markets haven't liked the Vikings for a while. Go back to the Dallas game where they were a Home Dog and got blown out by 37 pts.

They beat the Jets by 5 two weeks ago. But the Jets out-statted the Vikings in that game and got nipped at the goal-line late.

There's no obvious reason to back the Colts. I see one reason the Colt players will feel motivated. It's the change in the air.

Reich was canned, Irsay made the unusual move of bringing in Saturday (who had been working with the team as a Consultant). The players know that jobs are on the line and that decisions will be made at year-end.

Vikings are right on the cusp of locking up the division. I'm taking the points. In Coach Jeff we trust.

[agendaman]

i like 3 dogs this week.gotta pick one.so gimme the giants plus 4.5 vs. washington.division game cold just cannot see this line.giants run run sasquatch ball control etc. fg. game at the finish.gl all.

[jackpot269]

Rams +7 -110 check me chuck on that I've been known to make a mistake!
Fading GB
Rams have been down as of late but did come back last Thursday for a big win, their rookie wideout Watson has 8 TD last 4 games and Mayfield should be better prepared to run the offense. They are getting a TD against GB who also have underperformed this year and Rogers has not looked like himself.
Its going to be very cold Monday hope it don't effect the LA boys!!

[pologq]

taking the lions getting 1 on the road. they are hot and the jets, while playing hard, are coming back down to reality record wise. mike white makes mistakes costing them the game again.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Those look good, boys. Thank you!

Polo, I'll even put you down for the +1.5. As we speak, that's the #.

Summary of picks:

303 NY Giants +4.5
307 Indy +4
313 Detroit +1.5
328 TAMPA BAY +3.5
331 LA Rams +7

Good Luck! Very interesting set of games.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

taking the lions getting 1 on the road. they are hot and the jets, while playing hard, are coming back down to reality record wise. mike white makes mistakes costing them the game again.

Polo, very interesting game. Hard to believe the Jets are now putting their QB hopes on Mike White:

*Flacco looks like a dinosaur.
*Saleh is saying the right things about Wilson. But it's clear that Saleh is not confident in Wilson. And the locker room backs White.

Lions have a chance to make a very short list of teams that started 1-6 but made the playoffs. 1970 Bengals were one of those teams:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970_Cincinnati_Bengals_season

Goff playing well. Lion offense is ripping. In recent weeks:
*20 Touchdowns
*Only 16 Punts and 3 Turnovers

Good Luck, Polo. Enjoy the game.

[Nate rasta]

Miami Dolphins + 7
This is a must win for Miami they're going to come out with their A game. Weather is going to be a factor, keeping the score low which could help make the game close

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Miami Dolphins + 7
This is a must win for Miami they're going to come out with their A game. Weather is going to be a factor, keeping the score low which could help make the game close

Thanks for posting, Nate. Good Luck:

Summary of picks:

303 NY Giants +4.5
307 Indy +4
309 Miami +7
313 Detroit +1.5
328 TAMPA BAY +3.5
331 LA Rams +7

[ChuckyTheGoat]

taking the lions getting 1 on the road. they are hot and the jets, while playing hard, are coming back down to reality record wise. mike white makes mistakes costing them the game again.

Very interesting. This might be the pivotal game of the week for the AFC/NFC wildcard races:

*White ruled out. His medical condition must be pretty severe.
*Wilson named starter. Lions flip to Fav.
*Now, I'm seeing Jets back to Favorite (-1).

[Nate rasta]

taking the lions getting 1 on the road. they are hot and the jets, while playing hard, are coming back down to reality record wise. mike white makes mistakes costing them the game again.

Great pic Polo G, I like it

[TheRedZone]

Baltimore +3, -120 for me this week. Also like them on the money line +135

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thanks for posting, Nate. Good Luck:

Summary of picks:

303 NY Giants +4.5
307 Indy +4 W
309 Miami +7
313 Detroit +1.5
328 TAMPA BAY +3.5
331 LA Rams +7

Colts do cover the #. Wow, would have been an all-timer if they had collapsed to lose SU (as well as ATS). Even SU...how does that happen?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Miami Dolphins + 7
This is a must win for Miami they're going to come out with their A game. Weather is going to be a factor, keeping the score low which could help make the game close

Summary of picks:

303 NY Giants +4.5
307 Indy +4 W
309 Miami +7W
313 Detroit +1.5
328 TAMPA BAY +3.5
331 LA Rams +7

Great pick, Nate. Wow, you are having a great year in this thread.

I know they lost SU. But huge effort by the Dolphins.

[Nate rasta]

Yee yee

[Nate rasta]

What a game

[agendaman]

those 2 games today left me ragged and worn out.really awaiting the sunday slate.

[jjgold]

I can’t believe the crazy NFL season and how many wild endings it just goes to show. Pointspread covers are pure a luck most of the time.

[OldBill]

my top biggest 10 dime play is falcons ML @ saints + 165

[ChuckyTheGoat]

my top biggest 10 dime play is falcons ML @ saints + 165

Bill, 15min to kick. You want me to put you down for Atl +5.5?

[jackpot269]

Sorry off topic but

Does anyone in the world say "Man" more than Dan Campbell

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Sorry off topic but

Does anyone in the world say "Man" more than Dan Campbell

Maybe I do.

[jackpot269]

Maybe I do.

Thats great, man!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thats great, man!

Haha, good stuff. Good Luck on your plays.

[Nate rasta]

taking the lions getting 1 on the road. they are hot and the jets, while playing hard, are coming back down to reality record wise. mike white makes mistakes costing them the game again.

Great work Polo I tailed ya!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Great work Polo I tailed ya!

Salud, Polo. Lions nutted up there.

Summary of picks:

303 NY Giants +4.5
307 Indy +4 W
309 Miami +7W
313 Detroit +1.5W
328 TAMPA BAY +3.5
331 LA Rams +7

Good luck on the remaining plays.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Implications of DET/Jet game:

*DET has a pretty light run-in. Chi/Carol/GBay remaining.
...They did lose vs SEA early in the season, which could be a problem on H2H tie-breaker.

*Jets are really circling. Jax/Sea/Mia remaining.
...At one time, Jets looked in for sure. They did win Home game vs MIA. Season finale vs Fish for wildcard slot?

[Orbison]

tampa dominating looks like 4-0 start

[pologq]

Great work Polo I tailed ya!

i am glad you did. took some luck but the jets are snakebitten.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Salud, Polo. Lions nutted up there.

Summary of picks:

303 NY Giants +4.5W
307 Indy +4 W
309 Miami +7W
313 Detroit +1.5W
328 TAMPA BAY +3.5L
331 LA Rams +7L

Good luck on the remaining plays.

Winning week. Good job, guys.

wk01: 5-2 ATS
wk02: 10-0 ATS
wk03: 10-1 ATS.
wk04: 10-8 ATS
wk05: 7-6 ATS
wk06: 8-4 ATS
wk07: 7-8 ATS

wk08: 9-8 ATS
wk09: 1-5 ATS (one push)
wk10: 7-5 ATS
wk 11: 4-6ATS
wk 12: 4-5 ATS
wk13: 4-6 ATS
wk14: 5-1 ATS
wk15: 4-2 ATS
YTD: 95-67 ATS (.586)
(vs -110) +21.3 units