Martingaling against Redskins starting today.

[SlickFazzer]

This week +120 Giants.

If that fails after a bye week they host the Giants and then at SF.

If they stick it in my rear, they will have gone on a 9-1 stretch.

[habitualwinning]

Moneyline or spreads? I'm assuming you mean moneylines but wouldn't spreads be safer for you? I mean they could lose all 3 games but cover 1 or 2 in the process.

[cincinnatikid513]

could just fade the fraud giants

[SlickFazzer]

Moneyline or spreads? I'm assuming you mean moneylines but wouldn't spreads be safer for you? I mean they could lose all 3 games but cover 1 or 2 in the process.

Worth considering. Just considering a way to start something with chance.

[pologq]

good luck.

so they play the giants back to back really.

[SlickFazzer]

yes, dec 4th, then bye week, then again on the 18th.

[jjgold]

Staying away there a very good team

[iwantcougars]

this will hit, very clever

[pologq]

Staying away there a very good team

they are good. not sure about very good.

[SlickFazzer]

I can't see them going on a 9-1 run.

This is what it will take to crush this betting scheme.

[Renegades]

Oddsmakers like wash here. For them to be a fave at NY is an attempt to invite more giants money

[Renegades]

No way wash will be -8.5 at home vs ny which is what this week’s line implies. Wash will be -4 or 5 at home in two weeks.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

This week +120 Giants.

If that fails after a bye week they host the Giants and then at SF.

If they stick it in my rear, they will have gone on a 9-1 stretch.

Probably a good bet; the Redskins are 6-1 against the bad teams, 1-4 against the good ones and four of their last five are against good ones. Needless to say, I'll be rooting against you.

[stake1]

lets go big blue!

[texhooper]

No way wash will be -8.5 at home vs ny which is what this week’s line implies. Wash will be -4 or 5 at home in two weeks.

Nah, home field in the NFL is probably at an all time low. Like a point maybe. Not what it’s traditionally been at all. Someone like KVB probably knows more about that though

[habitualwinning]

Is there a big injury on giants or something? Why tf are the redskins favored in meadowlands and that means they'll be favored at home the next game same teams. That seems screwy to me. How often do you see 2 teams neck and neck in standings basically same kinda seasons point differential offense defense very similar, but the same team favored both games home and road back to back. Idk I can't figure that one out but that leads me to believe Vegas likely knows something we don't and it makes me think the same team wins both games thanks to some shenanigans. I don't know which team though I just have a feeling same team wins both of the next 2.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Redskins have won six of the last seven, Giants have lost three of the last four; that's why the Redskins are favored.

[KVB]

No way wash will be -8.5 at home vs ny which is what this week’s line implies. Wash will be -4 or 5 at home in two weeks.

Nah, home field in the NFL is probably at an all time low. Like a point maybe. Not what it’s traditionally been at all. Someone like KVB probably knows more about that though

Agree with Tex here. That home field advantage is based on what looks like a false assumption. It is true that overall the home field andvantage has gotten less and less, it has definitely declined.

I calculate home field a few different ways, including using a math formula I invented myself and has likely never existed before then.

But let's keep it simple. Let's not talk history, let's just talk this season and what we see now with these two teams.

As it stands, not considering any type of strength of schedule, we have a few facts.

Here are the average margin of victories for Wash and NYG this season...

Again, this is Avg Margin of victory at home and on the Road...

	Home	Road
Wash	-1.5	1
NYG	1.1	-3.75

This is just this season, so there's little protection from variance. These are means, not medians.

So we can do a few things with these numbers, but the main takeaway here is we can see with Washington actually exhibit a Road Field advantage here, or home field disadvantage.

A common practice is to do subtraction here and see that for Wash: -1.5 - 1 = -2.5. So when compared to the road, we see Wash perfrorming 2.5 points WORSE at home.

This is a home field disadvantage. And it does happen sometimes.

Doing the same for the Giants: 1.1 - (-3.75) = 4.85. This tells us that when compared to the road, NYG perform 4.85 points better at home.

So Home Field Advantage can vary so much specifically that you can go, for example, from nearly 5 points to an actual disadvantage.

When we do this for the league, and do it with rolling averages over a set number of previous years (to try to deal with variance) we can see that league wide the home field advantage can be as low as 1.5 points. Using some of my methods, we have not seen a 3 point home field advantage since the early 2000s.

In another post, I'll show how we can use these numbers to actually compare the teams. When we do this, we do not compare the teams in a vacuum, we compare them relative to the league. For this we will involve medians.

[semibluff]

Nah, home field in the NFL is probably at an all time low. Like a point maybe. Not what it’s traditionally been at all. Someone like KVB probably knows more about that though

I don't like the implication numbers either. If the line is -140, +120 then the Redskins are close to a 56.5% chance to win on the road. Altering the line for a neutral venue and then altering it again for Washington home field advantage probably isn't going to increase Washington's chances beyond 69%. At that mark the line would be around -250, +200 with the spread at -6. 69% would be the high point. The actual number would likely be nearer 67% inferring a -225, +185 line with a -4.5 spread.

[GunShard]

Martingale against the Broncos and bet Under their games have been profitable for me.

[habitualwinning]

Redskins have won six of the last seven, Giants have lost three of the last four; that's why the Redskins are favored.

Ok I didn't realize that but that still doesn't make sense. Why were the packers favored against the titans then when packers were on a losing streak and titans were hot?

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Don't know, I guess sometimes Vegas gets it wrong. In the case of Giants-Redskins, I think it has to do mostly with the fact that the Giants aren't as good as their record would indicate; I've been pointing out for weeks now the fact that Daniel Jones has a ridiculously low amount of TD passes (10 in 11 games as of now) and teams simply can't keep winning like that in today's NFL.

[d2bets]

This week +120 Giants.

If that fails after a bye week they host the Giants and then at SF.

If they stick it in my rear, they will have gone on a 9-1 stretch.

Show us the actual wager amounts.

Do some math and see how long you can actually afford to martingale it.

[jjgold]

Fazzer you might get barreled in

See you in Allentown 2 months

[SlickFazzer]

Its a risky move betting against these Redskins.

and yes thanks for the invite, looking at motels now actually.

Fazzer you might get barreled in

See you in Allentown 2 months

[jjgold]

Fazzer your playing a dangerous gambling game here

[SlickFazzer]

JJ the STOP LOSS comes if the Skins win the next 3, which would put them at a 9-1 run.

If they stick it to me, they stick it to me.