NFL week 10- Contrarian Angles

[TheLock]

I like the Packers today but I mushed Chucky last week so I’m not making it an official play.

The line makes no sense. Packers are a dumpster fire.

I also like Browns +3.5. It’s very contrarian but I hate having a position on any game involving the Dolphins.

Texans are a Top 3 contrarian play as well this week. Only 5 points on the road vs Giants? Lol.

I’m going to sit this week out. I think I’ve lost 2 weeks in a row after starting off hot.

I will cheer for all of you from the bleachers.

[GzaTheGenius]

Seabirds on the ML +124

[canepole]

Just curious here Chucky, I just recently found your thread. Wouldn't the contrarians love Indianapolis this week against the Raiders with a coach who has no experience and is a "drinking buddy of Jim Irsay? If this is the theme of the thread, give me Indy +4. GL everyone.....

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I like the Packers today but I mushed Chucky last week so I’m not making it an official play.

The line makes no sense. Packers are a dumpster fire.

I also like Browns +3.5. It’s very contrarian but I hate having a position on any game involving the Dolphins.

Texans are a Top 3 contrarian play as well this week. Only 5 points on the road vs Giants? Lol.

I’m going to sit this week out. I think I’ve lost 2 weeks in a row after starting off hot.

I will cheer for all of you from the bleachers.

Thank you, Lock. Have a great day. Here's to a profitable day for the crew:

Summary of picks:

243 Jax +9.5
248 PIT +1
251 Cle +3.5 (2x)
255 Den +2.5...with: 256 Ten -2.5
262 GBAY +5.5
263 Chargers +7
265 Wash +10.5
265/266 Wash/PHI: over 43.5

*Polo and Lock line up on the Browns.
*Dissenting opinions on Den/Ten.
Thanks to all for contributing. Good Luck.

[Snowball]

Weird how some my picks this week swung the other way a lot.
Very little faiths that the Giants and Raiders can handle real scrub teams, Colts and Texans.
I'm surprised at that. -6.5 to -4.5's. crossing the 2 FG thresholds.
Also, the total of Rams Cardinals down to 39 from 43.5

So I guess the line moves to the contrary make these Contrararian plays

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Just curious here Chucky, I just recently found your thread. Wouldn't the contrarians love Indianapolis this week against the Raiders with a coach who has no experience and is a "drinking buddy of Jim Irsay? If this is the theme of the thread, give me Indy +4. GL everyone.....

Thx for posting, Cane. I'm putting you down on the Colts:

Summary of picks:

243 Jax +9.5
248 PIT +1
251 Cle +3.5 (2x)
255 Den +2.5...with: 256 Ten -2.5
257 Indy +4

262 GBAY +5.5
263 Chargers +7
265 Wash +10.5
265/266 Wash/PHI: over 43.5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Weird how some my picks this week swung the other way a lot.
Very little faiths that the Giants and Raiders can handle real scrub teams, Colts and Texans.
I'm surprised at that. -6.5 to -4.5's. crossing the 2 FG thresholds.
Also, the total of Rams Cardinals down to 39 from 43.5

So I guess the line moves to the contrary make these Contrararian plays

Thanks for your post, Snowball. Can always learn from someone else's ideas.

You hit on a very nice topic. I'll call it the idea of "Public Consensus vs movement on the market line."

Steve Merril does a nice weekly NFL video that he calls "Fade the Public". Nice video but I'd take exceptions with two things he does:

1) He posts way too late in the week (on SATURDAY, not Jeff Saturday). I've mentioned my view on NFL lines. You really need to prepare and be ready EARLIER in the week.

I'm of the opinion that value has been sucked out by the time we get to NFL gameday. Getting BTCL value on your ticket is huge.

2) This ties to your comment above. Why do these #s move in (seemingly) the wrong direction?

Merril takes a straight-forward view that the Public consensus moves the #. No, $$ moves the #.

Let's say (for argument) that the public is on the Giants/Raiders...b/c the Texans/Colts are un-touchable. OK, who is betting ON the Texans/Colts? Doesn't look like those are square-bets...so what's left?

Re: the Ram/Card total, I think that's tied directly to the injury news. Stafford in doubt, and even Murray showed up on the injury list.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Just curious here Chucky, I just recently found your thread. Wouldn't the contrarians love Indianapolis this week against the Raiders with a coach who has no experience and is a "drinking buddy of Jim Irsay? If this is the theme of the thread, give me Indy +4. GL everyone.....

Cane, thx for the post. Yes, you're hitting on the spirit of the thread.

I intentionally left the definition of "contrarian" open-ended. People have different views on things.

The summary you lay out makes one scratch his head. How many vodka tonics does Irsay down daily? Irsay forces Reich to start Ehlinger, who has been a disaster. Pick up a few losses and can Reich...to bring in Saturday.

And the line has dipped from -6.5 to -4. Begs the question: Who is betting ON the Colts?

Truth is that this particular matchup is the ugliest of the week. Two teams going up in flames. As bad as the Colts look, Raiders have problems, too. Adams questioning McDaniels' play-calling. Raiders should have kept Bisaccia, that was a guy the players respected.

The crazy part is that the Division is still there to be had...if the Texans lose some games. Maybe Jeff Saturday is the next Vince Lombardi. THAT'S why they play the games.

[Snowball]

Yes, the reasons for the LM on Rams/Cards is expected, but it's still low for a warm weather game at 39.
That's not unusual but the Raiders and especially the Giants line moves don't make sense to me.
We can only chalk it up to the great parity that is characterising this season. It won't last. Teams will separate.

The quantitative systems used by so many today are placing a lot of value on points.

Steve Merril is doing the right thing by not fading the public until at least Saturday. Really, he's better to wait until Sunday
but then his video views would suffer for it. The more time you allow the public to increase the line, the better for the contrarian angle.

It is best to bet the public side early in the week, and the contrarian side as late as possible.

[canepole]

Cane, thx for the post. Yes, you're hitting on the spirit of the thread.

I intentionally left the definition of "contrarian" open-ended. People have different views on things.

The summary you lay out makes one scratch his head. How many vodka tonics does Irsay down daily? Irsay forces Reich to start Ehlinger, who has been a disaster. Pick up a few losses and can Reich...to bring in Saturday.

And the line has dipped from -6.5 to -4. Begs the question: Who is betting ON the Colts?

Truth is that this particular matchup is the ugliest of the week. Two teams going up in flames. As bad as the Colts look, Raiders have problems, too. Adams questioning McDaniels' play-calling. Raiders should have kept Bisaccia, that was a guy the players respected.

The crazy part is that the Division is still there to be had...if the Texans lose some games. Maybe Jeff Saturday is the next Vince Lombardi. THAT'S why they play the games.

Wondering the same thing

[cincinnatikid513]

my 1 and only pick


Texans +5 -110

i was very surprised early in week giants were not bigger favs like -6 -6.5 ish coming off a bye against a very bad texans team something fishy here , fading myself and common sense texans plus the points

[OldBill]

Nate is looking to stay undefeated w/ TEN. Bill counters that pick w/ DEN.

Enjoy the games. Should be a fun day.

when big dogs cover losing the game it's n auto fade for me especially losing in o t

it's my systems play any big dog that loses a game by 3 points or less i fade following week

yeah Broncos are bad but the injuries titans have from chiefs game gives edge to rested Broncos and screw the 2.5 points ML baby +125

[ChuckyTheGoat]

my 1 and only pick


Texans +5 -110

i was very surprised early in week giants were not bigger favs like -6 -6.5 ish coming off a bye against a very bad texans team something fishy here , fading myself and common sense texans plus the points

Adding in the Kid's HOU play:

Summary of picks:

243 Jax +9.5
245 Hou +5
248 PIT +1
251 Cle +3.5 (2x)
255 Den +2.5...with: 256 Ten -2.5

257 Indy +4
262 GBAY +5.5
263 Chargers +7
265 Wash +10.5
265/266 Wash/PHI: over 43.5

Thanks and GL.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Props to poster Nate Rasta.

Guy is carrying a very sharp view right now. Wins again w/ TENN -2.5.

Thru ten weeks, Nate is undefeated ATS:
*Didn't post wk01.
*Pushed +3 in wk09.
*Win today runs his ytd mark to 8-0 ATS (with one push).

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Also, re: the Indy/Veg, SOMEBODY must have known that Ryan was going to start. Addition by subtraction. Who knows what was going in backrooms in the Indy compound?

[ConleyPicks]

Ah so close on my Jax+9.5 if I had 10 then it would have been a push

Lots of good angles going to Jax on this game but hey next time fellas! Next time!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Ah so close on my Jax+9.5 if I had 10 then it would have been a push

Lots of good angles going to Jax on this game but hey next time fellas! Next time!

Salud, Conley. Very tough game to beat. #s are mostly sharp.

Jags also playing in Cold. So, that might have been a factor.

[agendaman]

that viks-bills game has me drinking some double johnny walker red sccotches.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

that viks-bills game has me drinking some double johnny walker red sccotches.

As if we needed ANOTHER REASON.

Haha. Enjoy the games, Agenda.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Just curious here Chucky, I just recently found your thread. Wouldn't the contrarians love Indianapolis this week against the Raiders with a coach who has no experience and is a "drinking buddy of Jim Irsay? If this is the theme of the thread, give me Indy +4. GL everyone.....

Cane, props on Indy. What a debut post!

Yes, your notes match the spirit of the thread. In NFL, I'm of the opinion that the harder the bet is to make...the better the ATS result (over time).

You found the toughest side to back. I mean, How do you back Indy today?

I'm convinced the line move was tied to someone knowing that Ryan was going to start. One factor that might have been overblown was how much impact Saturday could possibly have on THIS WEEK'S game.

What is he really going to do in that short turnaround? IMHO, he's a name/figurehead tied to the Colt championship team. I'd imagine that his role this week was to:
1) Give a few pep talks.
2) Put some pressure on the players. "We're all playing for our jobs, including me."
3) Maybe a few game decisions like "Go for it" on 4th Down.

Sometimes the HC role in NFL can be overblown. All the position coaches have their responsibilities. If the coordinators are in place, things should run status quo.

[TheLock]

I’m going to sit this week out. I think I’ve lost 2 weeks in a row after starting off hot.

I will cheer for all of you from the bleachers.

Not a big deal at all but I didn’t make a selection today.

Great call on Packers, Chucky.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Not a big deal at all but I didn’t make a selection today.

Great call on Packers, Chucky.

OK, Thx, Lock.

[canepole]

Thank you Chucky Hey, who knows? Like you alluded to earlier, look out Vince, here comes Saturday!! Great thread, keep it up

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Adding in the Kid's HOU play:

Summary of picks:

243 Jax +9.5L
245 Hou +5L
248 PIT +1W
251 Cle +3.5 (2x)LL
255 Den +2.5L...with: 256 Ten -2.5W

257 Indy +4W
262 GBAY +5.5W
263 Chargers +7
265 Wash +10.5
265/266 Wash/PHI: over 43.5

Thanks and GL.

Lock did correctly state that he wasn't playing this week. For transparency, I'm going to leave it as is. My error.

Still < .500 for the week going into the Sun/Mon nite games.

Jack, GL on the Chargers. I honestly don't understand why they're catching > 7 pts here:

1) Can the McCaffrey addition make THAT MUCH difference?
2) I swear the Charger injury to CB Jackson will be a blessing. He was playing injured and getting smoked. Live body that's healthy can do better than his league-low performance rating.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Fading 49'ers

Taking the chargers and the 7.5. Chargers have disappointed all year and its about time for a big game.

I look for a lot of points in this prime-time game!

Nice call on the Chargers, Jack. Catching the extra pts pays off. Beats the # by a whisker, just perfect.

One observation from the game:
*Charger injuries are accumulating again. This time, the Def Line is thinning out. Down to rookies and lesser names.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thank you Chucky Hey, who knows? Like you alluded to earlier, look out Vince, here comes Saturday!! Great thread, keep it up

Thanks, Cane. Just trying to have some fun and print a few Dead Presidents.

[pologq]

browns shit the bed. sorry men.

of all the dogs yesterday that is the one i pick.

[agendaman]

looking at week 11 opening odds a few dog picks appear.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

browns shit the bed. sorry men.

of all the dogs yesterday that is the one i pick.

No worries, Polo. Tua just appears to be that good. Doesn't mean it was a bad pick.

[TheRedZone]

I don't see much contrarian angles for tonight's game. Maybe I'm missing something

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Summary of picks:

243 Jax +9.5L
245 Hou +5L
248 PIT +1W
251 Cle +3.5 (2x)LL
255 Den +2.5L...with: 256 Ten -2.5W

257 Indy +4W
262 GBAY +5.5W
263 Chargers +7W
265 Wash +10.5W
265/266 Wash/PHI: over 43.5 W

[ChuckyTheGoat]

wk01: 5-2 ATS
wk02: 10-0 ATS
wk03: 10-1 ATS.
wk04: 10-8 ATS
wk05: 7-6 ATS
wk06: 8-4 ATS
wk07: 7-8 ATS

wk08: 9-8 ATS
wk09: 1-5 ATS (one push)
wk10: 7-5 ATS
YTD: 74-47 ATS (.612)

8 of 10 winning weeks. Props to the SUN/MON bettors. Strong finish to secure a winning week.

If someone told me Russ Grimm was suiting up, I would have taken WASH for sure. Clint Didier, where did he come from?

Props, boys. Thanks for contributing.

[TheLock]

Lions only getting 3 points at Giants in Week 11 is the essence of contrarian