Friday Plays?? Lock In Cards At A Tag @+137

[jjgold]

Tags are the slang in Northeast for a very good price

[shocka1212]

NYY. ..... considering a large bet on Red Sox also..

[7deuceoff$uit]

Looking at the over on the Orioles/Red Sox. Two righties face off in Aaron Brooks and Rick Porcello. Total is a bit high at 12, but factor these in:

- The Orioles pitchers are bad, particularly Brooks who has given up at least 5 in 3 of his last 4 games. And he has not pitched particularly well against Red Sox bats.

- Porcello has only allowed 5 or more runs in 2 of his last 4, but the Sox Bull pen has been generous with the opposition. His last 8 games have had a final total of at least 12 runs between the two teams. June 23rd was his last game that was not a home run derby.

-Fenway is a hitter's park. I expect the ball to be flying.

TL/DR

Getting up to tahoe early enough to pound O's/Sox over

[BIGDAY]

I'll BITE!

Pounding CARDS!

[Sam Odom]

shocka

not too large

show a little more prudence

thank Sammy later

[KVB]

Another Contrarian UNDER, tag that bitch...

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

974

16-Aug

MIN/TEX UNDER 10 (-110)

...

[shocka1212]

shocka

not too large

show a little more prudence

thank Sammy later

ok, just normal bet on NYY then.... thanks you Sammy, I appreciate you talking me off the ledge here

[Sam Odom]

[jjgold]

Roll it

Dice players call me

[dictator_teddy]

August 16: 3 plays for the day; need 3 winners!

TBR -305
Rox -210
Bal/Bos O12 +100

[KVB]

Tags are the slang in Northeast for a very good price

May have locked in a tag, Gold, price looks to be in the mid 120's now.

[KVB]

TEX +1.5 is on the Contrarian Runline Fund radar with a potential tag at +171.

Nothing triggered, yet.

[KVB]

TEX +1.5 is on the Contrarian Runline Fund radar with a potential tag at +171.

Nothing triggered, yet.

Obviously that's a typo.

Should say TEX -1.5 for +171.

Nothing triggered, we usually give these RL plays some time to develop.

[STANDARD BET]

Can we really pass up LAD as dogs after the debacle yesterday?

Looking at the Cubs -140 on the bounce back.

Thoughts?

[KVB]

Can we really pass up LAD as dogs after the debacle yesterday?

Looking at the Cubs -140 on the bounce back.

Thoughts?

The Contrarian Fund slightly leans towards the other side of both of those but it's not much as of now. I have some mixed signals.

The raw forecast, without any market based adjustments, has Pitt winning pretty much 5-4 creating a 9 point Total. That's right at the market and contrarian adjustments are looking to bring that down.

With money and tickets on the OVER and that line not moving much the UNDER 9 in PIT is on the Contrarian Fund radar, but it is early and could easily turn to a pass.

The raw forecast, without market adjustments, has LAD winning, also 5-4. The public appears to be on LAD, but my info show what I consider "sharper" money on ATL. With the books appearing to show early RLM, that notion seems to be confirmed and ATL is on the radar but we don't like the price there. Any adjustments may not move the forecast enough to lay for it, we'll see as volume comes in. The books can really drive money here with the line they hang; they can really generate action.

The Total there is a tougher situation for the Fund as the UNDER is an obvious play with the exception of some information mitigating the raw forecast +contrarian adjustments. I don't want to get into those factors yet, ask me later though. With these metrics, betting volume tends to bring changes and it is very early yet in the betting day.

Things become more clear after the stock market closes.

It's a tough one and the moneylines have pretty much stayed frozen, with ATL getting some movement, but so little, so far.

I will be looking at these closely.

[STANDARD BET]

Thanks, keep us posted!

[mackave]

Can we really pass up LAD as dogs after the debacle yesterday?

Looking at the Cubs -140 on the bounce back.

Thoughts?

Stay away from the god damn Cubs on the road

[STANDARD BET]

I like to live dangerously.

[2daBank]

Cardinals are not a good price JJ. This current road trip the offense has been shit on by starting pitchers named

Sparkman (6 innings 1 earned run), came in w a era around 5.5!

Keller (6ip 3 earned runs, belueve he took a no hitter into the 6th!!)

Grey, obviously we talking a better pitcher now but 5ip 1 hit, no runs, 10ks, then we managed all of 1 more hit in 4 innings vs reds pen!!!

Now cards facing Castillo tonight, you telling me we gonna score runs off this kid? I don’t fukkin see it!!! Waino been significantly worse away from home all season. Reds offense nothing special either so I suspect he will be decent for 5 innings but can’t count on him getting any support.,

Reds ff -.5 only paying -110 is the play imo.,

Also going back to the well with under.

Ff under 4.5 at ev, I like the fg under better but even money on ff I think makes it worth a play.

Stl/cincy fg under 9... even if waino struggles the pen will come in and bail him out, don’t expect cincy to score any after waino leaves considering all cards best relief pitchers are well rested.

[2daBank]

If cards can manage to get Castillo out the game after 5/6 innings and waino keeps them close cards could potentially come back late and get the w. I might even consider playing them live if they down a run or 2 and get Castillo pitch count up. Only way I would play them tho.

[KVB]

Thanks, keep us posted!

That LAD/ATL game is just not very sexy.

The line freeze in CHC/PIT is a little more interesting. I have some houses opening with -140 and sticking there, some opening at -150 and falling to the -140 and some opening at -130 and rising to the -140.

Let's see if there is a broader market blink towards the CUBS.

I think they are going to get pressure.

[5mike5]

Allgaier>Briscoe ( -160)

[2daBank]

That LAD/ATL game is just not very sexy.

The line freeze in CHC/PIT is a little more interesting. I have some houses opening with -140 and sticking there, some opening at -150 and falling to the -140 and some opening at -130 and rising to the -140.

Let's see if there is a broader market blink towards the CUBS.

I think they are going to get pressure.

Desipite how much crap I talk on pirates they def the only playable side tonight. Seems they got a little mojo out in Cali and can’t say enough how nobody should ever lay juice w the scrubbies on the road!! They basically the marlins away from wrigley this year!! Yet they get lined like the contender they are (at home!).,

[STANDARD BET]

Desipite how much crap I talk on pirates they def the only playable side tonight. Seems they got a little mojo out in Cali and can’t say enough how nobody should ever lay juice w the scrubbies on the road!! They basically the marlins away from wrigley this year!! Yet they get lined like the contender they are (at home!).,

I hear all that, but do they really drop 4 in a row trying to make a push? Pitching favors the cubs. Just looking at variables.

I don't like the juice at all tho at -140. Hoping it comes down. Could be a live play.

[KVB]

Stay away from the god damn Cubs on the road

They have been terrible when it comes to winning...

	Home	Away
Last 10	2-1	2-5
vs Div	19-5	8-18
vs AL	5-3	5-5
vs NL	36-16	18-33
Overall	41-19	23-38

For the bettor that has bet the same unit on every Cubs road game this season, that 23-38 record has lost about -15 to -16 units for an ROI of about -25%, depending on the line bought.

[2daBank]

I hear all that, but do they really drop 4 in a row trying to make a push? Pitching favors the cubs. Just looking at variables.

I don't like the juice at all tho at -140. Hoping it comes down. Could be a live play.

Honestly I havnt even gotten around to capping it yet, just in general I won’t lay juice w cubs on the road (I’m not much of a chalk eater in bases anyways, no way I’m laying it on a team as bad as they been on the road this year.)

If it turns out they do have a significant edge in the starting pitching department and you like them I’d suggest looking at the FF -.5 to limit the juice and avoid cubs pen who been atrocious away from home all season. Def wouldn’t be thrilled holding a cubs ticket if they trailing after 5 anyways., just a suggestion.

[STANDARD BET]

Damnit, you're right. I was kinda hope someone would talk me outta these 2 games.

Back to drawing board.

[2daBank]

Damnit, you're right. I was kinda hope someone would talk me outta these 2 games.

Back to drawing board.

What’s the other one?

So far all I have is reds ff -.5 and the under ff and fg in the stl/cincy game. Unders been straight money w cards dog shit offense lately!! Just don’t see them having much chance to score more than a run or 2 off Castillo.

[STANDARD BET]

I was considering Dodgers, but KVB is talking me out of it. Line is creeping toward ATL now though. If it gets above +110 might have to take LAD out of principle.

[KVB]

What’s the other one?

So far all I have is reds ff -.5 and the under ff and fg in the stl/cincy game. Unders been straight money w cards dog shit offense lately!! Just don’t see them having much chance to score more than a run or 2 off Castillo.

I think STANDARD was also looking at LAD/ATL.

Just not getting much for that game, but with the LAD, bettors can come piling in, so we'll see if ATL get's on the Contrarian radar.

But that's looking like a pass for me, despite how popular it might get to be. We'll see though, it is a Friday and thinks can get very contrarian on what I like to call "fade the public Fridays'"

[2daBank]

I was considering Dodgers, but KVB is talking me out of it. Line is creeping toward ATL now though. If it gets above +110 might have to take LAD out of principle.

It is pretty crazy to see doyers as dogs, can’t imagine that has happened more than a handful of times all year!! I’m gonna check that one out now.

[STANDARD BET]

What’s the other one?

So far all I have is reds ff -.5 and the under ff and fg in the stl/cincy game. Unders been straight money w cards dog shit offense lately!! Just don’t see them having much chance to score more than a run or 2 off Castillo.

Yeah, i"m with you on that under ff for sure. +134 is good value with Castillo on the hill.

[KVB]

I was considering Dodgers, but KVB is talking me out of it. Line is creeping toward ATL now though. If it gets above +110 might have to take LAD out of principle.

Yeah, don't let me totally talk you out of it, I see it as a potential pass here.

But that's just the Contrarian Fund. It's likely ATL or nothing there.

LAD still not a bad bet, like I said, the raw forecast has LAD 5-4. That's not a bad look at all.

[KVB]

Banker been nailing first fives, on fire all season.

Just banging them out.

[2daBank]

Yeah, i"m with you on that under ff for sure. +134 is good value with Castillo on the hill.

Reds ff -.5 -110 is a stronger play for me than the under. I don’t 100% trust waino on the road in a bandbox. Actually like fg under better than ff cause cards stud pen guys all well rested so I don’t think cincy will score much if any once waino leaves the game. Only reason I grabbed ff under was cause it even money at 4.5, don’t think cards will get more than 1 off Castillo, just hoping waino can hold cincy to 3, lol.