What happened to all the math sharps?

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  • ChalkyDog
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 10-02-11
    • 9598

    #1
    What happened to all the math sharps?
    ... and the think tank generally?

    I am about to jump into sports gambling again, and all the posters like Granchow, Data and Mathdotcom are gone? Even more insane is a lot of their juicier threads have been deleted.


    Originally posted by Ganchrow
    I've for some time been a bit embarrassed by my rather egregiousness overcomplication of the mathematical curiosity that is the unconstrained simultaneous independent event Kelly solution, which I detailed over 3 years ago in this thread.

    So to rectify in brief:
    Given N independent events, x1, x2, ..., xN, with corresponding single bet Kelly stakes of κ1, κ2, ..., κN, the unconstrained Kelly solution (for any Kelly multiplier > 0) consists of the 2N-1 parlays such that the wager on a given parlay comprised of all events in set S would be:
    [nbtable] [tr] [td] [/td] [td] κi[/td] [td]   [/td] [td]   [/td] [td] × [/td] [td]   [/td] [td] [/td] [td] (1-κi) [/td] [/tr] [/nbtable]

    So given, for example, events A, B, C, D, and E, with corresponding single-bet Kelly stakes of κA, κB, κC, κD, and κE, then the Kelly stake for the 1-team parlay consisting of only bet A would be:
    κA * (1-κB) * (1-κC) * (1-κD) * (1-κE)

    While the Kelly stake for the 3-team parlay consisting of bets A, B, and C would be:
    κA * κB * κC * (1-κD) * (1-κE)
    That shit right there is beautiful, but barely touches the surface of the gold mine that was the math nerds of the past. If they're no longer here, SBR - can you unfukk their threads?
  • Sam Odom
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-30-05
    • 58063

    #2
    Even Ganchrow could NOT beat the MAN

    So... he joined them
    Comment
    • milwaukee mike
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 08-22-07
      • 26914

      #3
      kelly criterion is the most overrated thing in gambling

      bunch of nerds thought they were smart coming up with ideal bet sizing... if you have an advantage, bet the max allowed, if you're underfunded then get some more money

      much more important to determine if you have an advantage then determining exactly how much you should bet, based on some arbitrary bankroll number and the foolish thinking that the bankroll could never be added to
      Comment
      • unlearn
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 03-22-14
        • 9041

        #4
        Originally posted by milwaukee mike
        kelly criterion is the most overrated thing in gambling

        bunch of nerds thought they were smart coming up with ideal bet sizing... if you have an advantage, bet the max allowed, if you're underfunded then get some more money

        much more important to determine if you have an advantage then determining exactly how much you should bet, based on some arbitrary bankroll number and the foolish thinking that the bankroll could never be added to
        Bingo. Play to win, not not to lose
        Comment
        • Sam Odom
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 10-30-05
          • 58063

          #5
          Vast majority do not know if they have a +EV bet
          Comment
          • ChalkyDog
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 10-02-11
            • 9598

            #6
            Originally posted by milwaukee mike
            kelly criterion is the most overrated thing in gambling

            bunch of nerds thought they were smart coming up with ideal bet sizing... if you have an advantage, bet the max allowed, if you're underfunded then get some more money

            much more important to determine if you have an advantage then determining exactly how much you should bet, based on some arbitrary bankroll number and the foolish thinking that the bankroll could never be added to
            No doubt, that was just an example of all that remains as far as usable equations. There are a few other things, but wildly over complicated to be usable.

            Glad to hear he was able to get a job in the industry. Granchow is the dude who would have been able to make that happen.

            As far as edge, I've always just used the log5 or small variants thereof. Either way, just started to get going again and was trying to compile info, but alas - SBR deleted the good shit (my assumption, could have been the posters themselves). The bigger clusterfuk will be determining which numbers are still viable.
            Comment
            • hubie69
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 09-16-10
              • 7329

              #7
              I would completely agree here, It's a shame those posts are gone.

              There is no longer any math on this forum, as sports betting has become more popular most guys here are recreational bettors that have no desire to jump into the analytical side of this industry. The guys that do the work on the backend won't post their Math. I know I certainly wont, at least not on here. I'm not going to do the work for guys that won't understand it anyway.
              Comment
              • milwaukee mike
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 08-22-07
                • 26914

                #8
                Originally posted by ChalkyDog
                No doubt, that was just an example of all that remains as far as usable equations. There are a few other things, but wildly over complicated to be usable.

                Glad to hear he was able to get a job in the industry. Granchow is the dude who would have been able to make that happen.

                As far as edge, I've always just used the log5 or small variants thereof. Either way, just started to get going again and was trying to compile info, but alas - SBR deleted the good shit (my assumption, could have been the posters themselves). The bigger clusterfuk will be determining which numbers are still viable.
                mathdotcom posts at tgf under "reno marty", monkeyfocker posts there too, not sure about anyone else from the old days
                Comment
                • Sam Odom
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 10-30-05
                  • 58063

                  #9
                  Chalky

                  much harder than it used to be (and/or Sammy is just too old)

                  numbers across the board are tight and move together

                  have to grab the early numbers and hope you guessed right
                  Comment
                  • BigDeem5
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 02-26-11
                    • 17191

                    #10
                    Not all move together

                    -FH
                    Comment
                    • milwaukee mike
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 08-22-07
                      • 26914

                      #11
                      Originally posted by hubie69
                      I would completely agree here, It's a shame those posts are gone.

                      There is no longer any math on this forum, as sports betting has become more popular most guys here are recreational bettors that have no desire to jump into the analytical side of this industry. The guys that do the work on the backend won't post their Math. I know I certainly wont, at least not on here. I'm not going to do the work for guys that won't understand it anyway.
                      and many of the better posters were driven away, either by sbr, or by dumb trolls... or they left on their own after betislands/legends/etc exposed the pay-for-play nature of the forum business
                      Comment
                      • hubie69
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 09-16-10
                        • 7329

                        #12
                        Originally posted by milwaukee mike
                        and many of the better posters were driven away, either by sbr, or by dumb trolls... or they left on their own after betislands/legends/etc exposed the pay-for-play nature of the forum business
                        I agree 100%, you're right on the nose here.
                        Comment
                        • 19th Hole
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 03-22-09
                          • 18953

                          #13
                          Great to see your post Chalky.
                          Welcome back even if it's a brief stay.
                          Hoping that your Wildcats back their glory.
                          Comment
                          • SEAHAWKHARRY
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 11-29-07
                            • 26068

                            #14
                            Just pick winners you will do Great
                            Comment
                            • The Kraken
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 12-25-11
                              • 28918

                              #15
                              KVB doesn’t have the same education as Scott, I think he has a masters (maybe phd)in economics from Brown if I remember correctly, but kvb puts out more practical information/advice for betting IMO. What Scott posted was way over everyones head and it just wasn’t useful for 99% of us.

                              4LengthsClear was another great one to read. Not sure if it was 4 or four but search his stuff, he was brilliant.

                              It’s nearly impossible to find an edge an keep that edge today. Books limit or just flat out show you the door. They will adjust to anyone winning consistently. You need to be funded at different shops, the risk one closes down isn’t zero, fees, all the fluff around gambling that is meant to separate you from your $$$ means to break even you need an even higher win %. I couldn’t imagine starting out now tbh. But certainly ggood luck

                              personally I never found the high level math stuff very practical, but learning to code and scrape info for massive databases is invaluable
                              Comment
                              • jjgold
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 07-20-05
                                • 388179

                                #16
                                We just like to hit game is hard we don’t care about math and winning
                                Comment
                                • hubie69
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 09-16-10
                                  • 7329

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by jjgold
                                  We just like to hit game is hard we don’t care about math and winning
                                  JJ, This is pretty clear and doesn't need to be stated. Your spreadsheet lets us all know that your math skills reside at the 4th grade level.
                                  Comment
                                  • franklee168
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 03-06-11
                                    • 5544

                                    #18
                                    Shivabowl was one of my favorites.
                                    Comment
                                    • jjgold
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 07-20-05
                                      • 388179

                                      #19
                                      Juice doesn’t matter when you win


                                      Pointing and clicking is also a good way to bet just as good as any other method
                                      Comment
                                      • SlickFazzer
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 05-22-08
                                        • 20209

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by jjgold
                                        Juice doesn’t matter when you win


                                        Pointing and clicking is also a good way to bet just as good as any other method
                                        Corbin, if you get some good power ratings and models... you have the ability to grind out a 2 percent edge.
                                        Comment
                                        • jjgold
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 07-20-05
                                          • 388179

                                          #21
                                          Math is good for scalpers and bonus whores
                                          Comment
                                          • SlickFazzer
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 05-22-08
                                            • 20209

                                            #22
                                            Spot bet, pick up 10 units a year.
                                            Comment
                                            • BuckyOne
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 01-02-15
                                              • 2728

                                              #23
                                              Math by itself is not enough! Fundamentalists who cannot define their value will not be successful long term. How is math doing explaining these NBA playoffs?
                                              Comment
                                              • The Kraken
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 12-25-11
                                                • 28918

                                                #24
                                                The problem is to find value you need to know your edge, and thats incredibly difficult. Thats where databases come into play, dozens (if not more) variables, and trying to weight each variable, regression analysis, margin of error, etc... Thats what makes a model and that is just the basic stuff. Write code, scrape info, build a database, design a model and voila, you’re nearly back to where you started
                                                Comment
                                                • hubie69
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 09-16-10
                                                  • 7329

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by BuckyOne
                                                  Math by itself is not enough! Fundamentalists who cannot define their value will not be successful long term. How is math doing explaining these NBA playoffs?
                                                  That's a pretty poor example. The NBA, especially the Playoffs, has a pretty efficient market, comparatively.

                                                  Clearly math is required in defining ones edge, and thusly value.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • TheLock
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 04-06-08
                                                    • 14427

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by The Kraken
                                                    Books limit or just flat out show you the door. They will adjust to anyone winning consistently..
                                                    The thing is, though, I know for a fact that if your unit size is $500 in MLB and your winning, the big books aren’t showing you the door.

                                                    I can’t speak for guys who are trying to get down $3K-$5K on a MLB side, however.

                                                    I just wanted to put some perspective on long term winning.

                                                    I miss having durito and Ganchrow around even if I only understood 10% of what they were saying.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 04-04-11
                                                      • 37428

                                                      #27
                                                      Math.com had it by the balls. Game was too ez for him.
                                                      Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 04-04-11
                                                        • 37428

                                                        #28
                                                        ChalkyDog, you're right. Think Tank has dropped off considerably.
                                                        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • stevenash
                                                          Moderator
                                                          • 01-17-11
                                                          • 65599

                                                          #29
                                                          I’m math guy, but yeah all the Uber nerds are gone.
                                                          Math is critical in handicapping MLB, there’s so much data out there, use it to your advantage.
                                                          Follow the trends too, never lay stupid juice, if you lose a flat bet at -180 you need to win your next two to break even, conversely if you bet the dogs and go 1-2, chances are you’ll break close to even.

                                                          Slick is right spot plays are the way to go, pretty much 80 percent of my plays are spot plays, with so many games in a season there’s usually a few diamonds in the rough, seek them out.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • TheLock
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 04-06-08
                                                            • 14427

                                                            #30
                                                            Follow what trends?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • jjgold
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 07-20-05
                                                              • 388179

                                                              #31
                                                              Math only wins

                                                              Best handicappers can’t name one professional athlete
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Chi_archie
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 07-22-08
                                                                • 63172

                                                                #32
                                                                I'm still here
                                                                Comment
                                                                • RudyRuetigger
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 08-24-10
                                                                  • 65084

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Guys

                                                                  If ganch was making so much and such a sharp, why did he want to go work for blackie in a failed business venture

                                                                  Think about it, 1 of the sharpest, begging to work for book's

                                                                  Last I know he went to heritage and once he gave any info he knew, he was answering phones
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                    • 04-04-11
                                                                    • 37428

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Thorp has talked about Kelly Criterion in some of his recent books. Thorp's recommendation is basically:

                                                                    1) Identify your edge.
                                                                    2) But an amount that is a little LESS than your calculated edge.

                                                                    This should make perfect sense. Over-betting is a sure path to the poorhouse EVENTUALLY.
                                                                    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • RudyRuetigger
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 08-24-10
                                                                      • 65084

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                                                                      Thorp has talked about Kelly Criterion in some of his recent books. Thorp's recommendation is basically:

                                                                      1) Identify your edge.
                                                                      2) But an amount that is a little LESS than your calculated edge.

                                                                      This should make perfect sense. Over-betting is a sure path to the poorhouse EVENTUALLY.
                                                                      Is thorp related to thremp?

                                                                      Trust me, all losers

                                                                      Might push small edges and books catch that quickly
                                                                      Comment
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