Using 538s MLB elo data to bet game totals

[Shev2]

So 538's MLB game projections (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ictions/games/) are done by calculating an elo score for each team, then adjusting each elo based on day-to-day variables like starting pitcher, stadium, rest since last game, etc. to arrive at a final elo for each team in each game. They then compare the elo values to project win% for each team. I want to try and use their adjustments to starting pitchers as an indicator of when to bet the under. Here is some research:

Plays for 4/23 based on information above

Braves - Reds under 8.5 (EVEN) Bovada
pitcher adjustments are +15 Gausman and +5 Gray

Rangers - Angels under 8.0 (-105) Bovada
pitcher adjustments are +8 Lynn and +9 Montas

What do you guys think?

[Shev2]

Picked up under 9 in the Braves - Reds game today at -110 and under 8.5 in the Rangers - Athletics game at -120