KVB Have a bases question

[USCPHILLYGUY]

yes it was bro

i can post the hand

rudy I had 92 points. Unless your saying the system makes it all in when you disconnect then you’re wrong. I wasn’t calling your river bet w q high.

You got your points. Move on

[LT Profits]

I use saber numbers. I don't specifically rely on them though like some. Example of some I use are:

WPA (Win probability added)

REW (Base-Out wins saved)

FIP (Field Independent pitching)

BABIP (Batting average on batted balls in play)

LD% (Line drives in play excluding homers)

That's a start

Just compare those stats with the two teams you are looking at and you will get a good idea on the number the favorite should be and what the dog should be

This is only a start though. You can add more if you feel it will be relevant to the game which I usually will.

I actually like xFIP as a catch-all pitching number and WOBA as a catch-all offensive number. Sometimes simple is better, especially for Saber newbies.

[RangeFinder]

I actually like xFIP as a catch-all pitching number and WOBA as a catch-all offensive number. Sometimes simple is better, especially for Saber newbies.

WOBA is good to use and I do like xFIP but I find the ones that I mentioned above to do a little better in line accuracy when creating numbers

If you're trying to create scores then yea the ones you use are accurate

Different people I talk to all use different ones I just personally like the ones I use then add one or two if I feel it's relevant to the game I'm looking at

I don't think there are right and wrong numbers

[RudyRuetigger]

rudy I had 92 points. Unless your saying the system makes it all in when you disconnect then you’re wrong. I wasn’t calling your river bet w q high.

You got your points. Move on

good

you agree to send me 57 points

now go log back into the poker client

then log out

you will get 149 more points

57 of those are owed to me

THANKS

[RudyRuetigger]

thanks bro

now do like i said and you will see 149 more

[RudyRuetigger]

oh you didnt even transfer to poker so mustve been using rollover points

well i can promise you, you have 149 at the table

[USCPHILLYGUY]

Not a problem.

Enjoy

[RudyRuetigger]

i always send when i disconnect

i just wanted to see if you would

thanks for being a stand up guy

sent back 57

[USCPHILLYGUY]

i always send when i disconnect

i just wanted to see if you would

thanks for being a stand up guy

sent back 57

rudy stop. Points are yours so please keep them. Like I said I’ve never had a disconnect issue so wasn’t sure what the protocol is.

[LT Profits]

I don't think there are right and wrong numbers

Of course there are wrong numbers to use, just ask the guys still using ERA and WHIP.

[RudyRuetigger]

rudy stop. Points are yours so please keep them. Like I said I’ve never had a disconnect issue so wasn’t sure what the protocol is.

the protocol is tough luck to the person that loses

i always send back because i dont want people thinking i did it on purpose (you can atleast ask Bigorange about me in that regard)

you are actually still sitting at the table with 149

57 points is nothing and i never cash out, i just wanted to see if you would send when pressed

well good job bro

[USCPHILLYGUY]

Loving the Yankees OVER 9 this afternoon. Just seems low.

[Jayvegas420]

Tha Fukk is Reid-Foley?

[LT Profits]

Tha Fukk is Reid-Foley?

Big strikeout guy that cut his walks down considerably this year at Triple-A. Time will tell if that translates to bigs though.

[LT Profits]

Big strikeout guy that cut his walks down considerably this year at Triple-A. Time will tell if that translates to bigs though.

Despite the walk issues, only had xFIP higher than 4.00 once in minors.

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=17034&position=P

[USCPHILLYGUY]

Not expecting a big outing from him 1st time out at Yankee stadium

[LT Profits]

Not expecting a big outing from him 1st time out at Yankee stadium

I didn't say I did either, just presenting the facts.

[KVB]

When posting about the Contrarian Fund, I give away so many factors, many based on successful historical regressions regarding market activity.

When I sometimes post multiple times, walking through plays, I mention what I see, and what I am looking for as well why it is on the radar.

I then come back to confirm, or not confirm, the situation.

When it comes, to factors, even non contrarian capping, I have given away the shop and left it up to readers to figure out the relevant weightings. Even then I've stressed importance. I've done much of this real time with real live examples, with multiple types of handicapping.

I have spread and hidden gems throughout the Forum, some of which Sharon has come to remove, because it really is knowledge for the esoteric. Who really wants to learn and who just wants a shortcut that will lead them to eventual losses? These posters and readers are weeded out.

I can count on 1 hand the number of posters that gave up with one post and then went on to failed trolling. It always ends the same as these guys always have to make up some lies to try to get me to engage.

There are many more who are learning, and taking or changing their own handicapping, and then looking at a bigger picture with my handicapping. They are enhancing what they know or just taking moment to listen, sticking to their own tried and true methods.

All I did was share, and never sought the attention, in fact, while giving away the shop, I intentionally stayed out the light, for years.

I have felt better in my neck and decided to share the Contrarian Fund thoughts, reads, radars and plays.

I offered that analysis in threads where games were being discussed. Unlike the dishonest Rudy and his bitch, I don't seek attention. I rarely start threads.

I won't do this forever and I have posted a ton of valuable information about gambling and even specifically about handicapping. This won't last forever because I have already revealed too much.

I have met some great people here at SBR and many of us will share our work offline as my factors are being put into the hands of computer programmers, allowing even more good work to be done and enhancing the computers already at work.

We all have a lot to learn.

Track your bets and why you made them.

If you understand why the line opens where it opens and closes where it closes then you will go a long way towards winning long term.

[danshan11]

KVB you are a nice guy and you take a ton of time doing all these writeups and research but I just dont understand what all that is. Basically all we need to know is what the closing line will be and bet accordingly, nothing else matters, how can it, I mean if we agree the markets are basically effecient. I guess I just dont understand all that, maybe you can clarify it better for me.

[USCPHILLYGUY]

I didn't say I did either, just presenting the facts.

Wasn’t even commenting on your post LT

that walk in 1st inning sure didn’t help his cause

[KVB]

KVB you are a nice guy and you take a ton of time doing all these writeups and research but I just dont understand what all that is. Basically all we need to know is what the closing line will be and bet accordingly, nothing else matters, how can it, I mean if we agree the markets are basically effecient. I guess I just dont understand all that, maybe you can clarify it better for me.

That's the key Dan, that's what you are missing.

I don't always agree that the markets are efficient, and in many cases, by live example, I have demonstrated that they are not.

Regardless of that argument, we are sometimes looking at the market through that lens and approaching it from that standpoint.

That should give you a better frame of reference, now you it's a matter of following along, because I can only suggest you read the first CFL thread, from a few years ago. It taught so much. But really it's best to watch by example and the even this year's CFL thread has given us great examples. The regulars will attest to that. I will try to do better to explain the mechanics behind my some of those run downs.

Beating that line in a inefficient market is important.

The MLB Congrarian Fund is sometimes willing to pay for more information before triggering a play but the research also anticipates line moves, and I try to jump on them. That Fund is currently positive 4 units (as tracked with SBR prices) over 141 plays but has been very volatile, winning as many as 10 units to being down 2 units.

[danshan11]

I know we can go round and round but in reality telling people that markets are not effecient makes them believe they are betting smart because the bears are good on 3rd down and that is just not the case. The only way 99.99% of should judge their plays is against the line. Thinking you are smarter than the market for most people is a guaranteed long term loss.

[Jayvegas420]

There's a lot to unpack their Dan, but don't you think if you are consistently beating the closing line, you are smarter then Market?

[KVB]

There's a lot to unpack their Dan, but don't you think if you are consistently beating the closing line, you are smarter then Market?

Have you seen the CFL sharp forecast against the closer?

It has beaten it every time, with two games closing where they opened.

It hasn't failed yet. While this seems good, those aren't very liquid markets, and that is awfully far outside of statistical probability.

There really is only one explanation right now.

[USCPHILLYGUY]

Good start to this over

heating up for Vegas boys

[RudyRuetigger]

Phillips you are a clown show

[USCPHILLYGUY]

Phillips you are a clown show

Well thank you Rudy

[RudyRuetigger]

now that you got your points from poker, i see you are in a happier mood

MAYBE SAY SORRY

[LT Profits]

Wasn’t even commenting on your post LT

that walk in 1st inning sure didn’t help his cause

Ah, your comment flowed so naturally immediately after mine that I assumed you were following up.

[KVB]

I know we can go round and round but in reality telling people that markets are not effecient makes them believe they are betting smart because the bears are good on 3rd down and that is just not the case. The only way 99.99% of should judge their plays is against the line. Thinking you are smarter than the market for most people is a guaranteed long term loss.

Dan I sent you a PM.

[USCPHILLYGUY]

now that you got your points from poker, i see you are in a happier mood

MAYBE SAY SORRY

Sorry Rudy

yankees over 9 winna

[KVB]

Nice one Philly!!

[jjgold]

Stalkers

[KVB]

Stalkers

You created this mess.

Or did I?

[USCPHILLYGUY]

KVB let’s keep the momentum going Read that Yankees game like I had a crystal ball Even with some supposed SBR top cappers pulling stats on starting pitchers


Kind of reminds me of this.......