NFL turnovers

[Dark Horse]

I'm looking for a better way to keep track of turnovers. In normal stats an interception is an interception. But in reality an interception at your own 20 yard line is not nearly the same as an interception at the opponent's 20 yard line. For more reliable stats a turnover should be given a rating, depending on where on the field it happened, and how far it was returned.

Is there a site that has this type of info?

[jjgold]

Int's at either 20 is exactly the same thing

Points will be scored on either end

[Jay Edgar]

Int's at either 20 is exactly the same thing

Points will be scored on either end

I think I'm going to cry . . . . . .


DH, I don't know of one. But I'd love to find it.

[jjgold]

How is it different?

It is the exact same thing. If your going for a score and throw an INT at their 20 you dont get points so you lose 3 or 7 points

Now if you throw an int on your own 20 the other team gets 3 or 7 so again you lose 3 or 7.

Either way the same thing

Too many HS kids posting here.

[BSTPNM68]

Int's at either 20 is exactly the same thing

This comment can only be made by a dolt that is only doing himself/herself harm by engaging in an activity--sports investing--that requires an individual to have a keen sense of math, probabilities and odds.

[Korchnoi]

I initially didn't understand JJs point, but it does seem to make sense now. The field position is symmetrical.

However, turnovers in the middle of the field are less significant than at (either) twenty.

[Dark Horse]

JJ, if a QB from the 50 throws a ball that is intercepted at the 20, that's a turnover, but not huge on the turnover scale. The measurement is made from the 50. The end result is almost the same as a punt on 4th down.

But if the QB throws a ball from his own 5 that is intercepted at his own 20, that is as about as bad as they come.

It does depend on how far the interception is returned as well, but I would start a rating with where the ball is thrown and where it is intercepted.

[Korchnoi]

JJ, if a QB from the 50 throws a ball that is intercepted at the 20, that's a turnover, but not huge on the turnover scale. The measurement is made from the 50. The end result is almost the same as a punt on 4th down.

But if the QB throws a ball from his own 5 that is intercepted at his own 20, that is as about as bad as they come.

It does depend on how far the interception is returned as well, but I would start a rating with where the ball is thrown and where it is intercepted.

why not just measure from the line of scrimmage?

[Dark Horse]

Definitely.

[Jay Edgar]

I think Korchnoi's got the right idea.

We're looking for all available information that has predictive value about what's going to happen in the future. I'll say again (more gently this time) that the statement that all interceptions are equal is, at best misguided. Plainly so, in my opinion.

In a perfect world, we could peek at (or produce on our own) something like the coaching staff's grading sheet, which factors just how 'good' or 'bad' every pick (indeed, every play) was. The NFL QB rating may be the most elaborate official attempt in all of sports to do something like this -- but even it falls very short.

Picking up on the DH/Korchnoi point (that is, it's what you do at the ends of the field that count -- in simplest terms, the good teams make 7 and give up 3 or 0 while the bad teams make 3 or 0 and give up 7), I think a valuable tool that gets at this from available data is a yards-per-point ratio. The better teams have a low YPP number on offense and a high one on defense. If a QB's interceptions come more toward midfield, it should show up in this ratio in a positive way.

[Dark Horse]

It might help to have an graph for each QB, with each INT on it. X= where is ball thrown from (line of scrimage). Y= where is ball picked off.

[jjgold]

No definite answer here, so many ways too look at it