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Me like! I'm on board!
Thanks LB!
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nba betting in the playoffs is a crapshoot. it's all a fukking guess.
would it surprise anyone if okc got blown out tonight?Comment -
Almost everyone forecasting with numbers agrees that the Spurs are the winner and they do vary by how much. Like I said before, I have them winning by 10 points and the line is only -2. Less dynamic models that are either triggering bets or representative of those bettors who follow subjectively do have it much closer, but still a San Antonio win.
Interestingly, the same can be said for Cleveland as sharper forecasts give Cleveland roughly an 8 point win while those unsophisticated bettors might even process data that gives concludes Atlanta as an outright winner.
There is heavy action on both road favorites and those lines, holding at 2 and pressing to 2.5, represent value to many sharp bettors.
These are given and take markets, for the most part, and I have evidence indicating that the sharper bettors will likely split the games tonight. This evidence combined with the alignment of bettors indicates that one of these road favorites will fail against the spread.
Bettors in it for the long haul like advantages and value but also know that this value comes on a fairly regular basis with these markets. Recognizing that prevents one from “jumping on the next big thing” or value bet simply because the books make it so “easy,”
We know this behavior can be perilous and I can see at least two other market strategies whereby money is being driven towards San Antonio. My forecast of a 10 point victory carries with it a long term edge, but short term metrics (some involving market based playoff regressions) indicate that it could fail. Those betting the Spurs and winning might understand partially why, but if those bettors lose, many may never know why.
There are a macro and micro economic factors at play here, if you will, and I when the picture is put together it appears there could be a surprise in Oklahoma this Friday night as the Thunder strive for a 2-1 lead in the series.
Be careful favorite backers, it could be a long night for the road team in Oklahoma City and betting more than normal because the edge appears evident in this situation is a dangerous behavior.
I am watching the markets and may pull the trigger very late with an underdog spread bet; I will not take the Spurs at this point, preferring to pass on the value play.
Good Luck whatever your play.
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lol kvb you crack me up with your bullshit.Comment -
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Kvb the lines indicate spurs will be behind at ht and comeback to win.Comment -
Also, Lakerboy, there are elements in the market that indicate many manners of games. The strongest I see is evidence for the Spurs to take a lead and then lose (at least the spread) to OKC. There is also evidence that the Spurs face strong shooting from OKC and that SA will fall behind and not make it up.
What overshadows all of this speculation is a stronger indication from a solid metrics that any lead changes may resolve themselves before halftime leaving the bettor with no decent plays at the half.
Halftime bettors will probably be gambling tonight and may even get lucky with a push on the halftime bet.
The details of these conclusions I will withhold, for now.
Good Luck.
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Just an overwhelming amount of high end market experience. Be glad I'm at least sharing a sharp forecast and offering some thoughts out loud.
Use my analysis in combination with your own handicapping, if you handicap, to get onto a winner or at least, off of a loser.
Don't forget to track your bets and why you made them, it is the most valuable piece of information you can get, available (for the most part) to no one else.
That is until we make you, if we haven't already.
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its just that everything you say never comes to a conclusion. some forecasts say the spurs will win by 30.. some say okc will win. some say spurs will win and not cover. some say halftime bettors might push. some say okc will go up and lead the whole game. some say spurs will spurs will get up early and okc will come back.. like okay dude thanks we got itComment -
KVB, I commend you. You try really hard to restrain your ego, although at times it leaks from the cracks. I'd recommend not holding back, it's a bit more entertaining and trustworthy.Comment -
My forecast is a conclusion. I also stated what I was looking for from the market and what I would and wouldn't buy.
These are all conclusions, maybe you should read it again. Some readers have told me they read more than once.
When I report who is where, and what money is where, I am reporting more facts than anything else. These facts are part of a larger picture that spans more than the game or games being discussed. Sometimes the closure you are looking for won't come until later issues. This is why I dislike posting about some games, and not the league in it's entirety.
Sometimes it leaves something to be desired, but in the interest of time and space it must that way.
Loseagain, if you are the kind who wants to tail, just follow my long term forecast, you won't lose over many plays. If you want to learn more about the behavior of the markets and it's participants and combine it with your own work, read my analysis.
The market analysis I offer is meant for bettors looking to improve their results. If readers can pick up what I put down, then they stand an excellent chance of helping the bottom line.
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Kvb the hattip is overboardComment -
laker what do you make of the series prices. books seem to be taking a stance that SA will win series, still -275 even w/o homecourt now.Comment -
Liked Spurs +2,5 when lined opened ( 1 point teaser )
not it is Spurs ML or no play for me .. gonna go with them or Cavs ML but Cavs at this line make the public takes them after the blow-out in Cleveland so it may be a trapComment -
kvb you love to bloviate man. you don't need to write a book to tell people the public is on san anton and cleveland. it takes me 5 seconds.
what's your nba playoff record? i'll be surprised if it's .500, no joke.Comment -
any line move of 4 points or more is fade or pass. 2 game chase on okc for me.Comment -
I said far more than that. Many of my sentences are conclusions based on some of the most successful forecasting metrics you've never heard about. Remember, I don't have to post but I am giving that advanced, publicly elusive analysis that you won't find anywhere else in the world.
To say "the public" is on the Spurs may seem obvious but actually leaves few answers and many questions, including what one means by "the public." This kind of one dimensional trivial handicapping is exactly why some of us continue to outperform the marketplace and take from the losing bettors. I'm trying to shed some light and offer a peek into a sharp analysts thinking.
If someone is reading this, and they can create there own valid line in sports, then I can guarantee, mathematically, that I can increase their bottom line...even if working in private. I know this is true from the past and see no indication so far that it won't be true moving forward.
If your handicapping is struggling and you are close to even, percentage and profit wise, I can say the same in helping to decrease your losses, or possibly turn you to profit.
I've taught handicappers and have colluded with some of the best in the world through a couple of decades. This Forum shit is relatively new to me, as it has had little use. It's even been a distraction at times.
Like I said before, track your bets and why you made them. If you want to increase your win percentage, you must first establish your current percentage. If you know where you are it is much easier to get to where you want to be.
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I agree. Breaking home court was enough to keep it under -300, but not by much. It's not so much the books anticipating the SA series win, but the market pressures are very real for a future's market.
And this is one reason I say it would be surprising to the bettors if OKC wins the series. Sometime the most surprising result (not just numbers wise) is the reality.
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spurs are a standard play tonight.Comment -
kvb, you did this bullshit analysis in cfl and you're doing it again here. nba playoffs is a crapshoot. don't get it twisted.I said far more than that. Many of my sentences are conclusions based on some of the most successful forecasting metrics you've never heard about. Remember, I don't have to post but I am giving that advanced, publicly elusive analysis that you won't find anywhere else in the world.
To say "the public" is on the Spurs may seem obvious but actually leaves few answers and many questions, including what one means by "the public." This kind of one dimensional trivial handicapping is exactly why some of us continue to outperform the marketplace and take from the losing bettors. I'm trying to shed some light and offer a peek into a sharp analysts thinking.
If someone is reading this, and they can create there own valid line in sports, then I can guarantee, mathematically, that I can increase their bottom line...even if working in private. I know this is true from the past and see no indication so far that it won't be true moving forward.
If your handicapping is struggling and you are close to even, percentage and profit wise, I can say the same in helping to decrease your losses, or possibly turn you to profit.
I've taught handicappers and have colluded with some of the best in the world through a couple of decades. This Forum shit is relatively new to me, as it has had little use. It's even been a distraction at times.
Like I said before, track your bets and why you made them. If you want to increase your win percentage, you must first establish your current percentage. If you know where you are it is much easier to get to where you want to be.
of course, vegas wants atl and okc to win tonight. siding with vegas is always a good thing but you never know, especially this year in the playoffs. hence, i will repeat, playoffs nba is a crapshoot. you can anal-yze until your rectums bleed but it's all bullshit.
how did you do in cfl btw? did you even break even?Comment -
My fingers are tired from banging Spurs
It is that easy menComment -
Best play in my book... Martingale San Antonio ML today... if it loses take San Antonio ML Game 4.
No fukking way San Antonio goes down 3-1 in the series.
Guaranteed Money in your pocket.Comment -
I will not take credit for Kahn's self burial here.
Don't tell me what I did in the CFL thread and then admit you didn't read it. That kind of trolling puts you near the TTWarrior and BigDaddyQH idiocy, I'd like to think you are better than that.
The CFL thread had a forecast listed with analysis for every game of the CFL for over 17 weeks. Of course it was successful and you won't likely find a thread at SBR with that level of detail coupled with that kind of success.
I can see you'd still rather be lucky than smart.
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kvb, i'm willing to bet i did better than you in cfl and i haven't a clue about cfl. what did i tell you? i will keep taking dogs until i lose three bets then i stopped.I will not take credit for Kahn's self burial here.
Don't tell me what I did in the CFL thread and then admit you didn't read it. That kind of trolling puts you near the TTWarrior and BigDaddyQH idiocy, I'd like to think you are better than that.
The CFL thread had a forecast listed with analysis for every game of the CFL for over 17 weeks. Of course it was successful and you won't likely find a thread at SBR with that level of detail coupled with that kind of success.
I can see you'd still rather be lucky than smart.
i stopped with the thread since you do the same shit. write pages and pages of nonsense. trying very hard to convince why things didn't go your way. you're no better than dr. bob. at least he gets paid to bullshit...
so let me ask you, if you can't beat an inefficient market like cfl, how do you figure you're gonna beat the nba, that's way more efficient using the same system? c'mon man, some newbies might actually believe your bullshit and put serious money listening to you.Comment -
new poll, who's worse: this guy, ilose, or mikefan?I said far more than that. Many of my sentences are conclusions based on some of the most successful forecasting metrics you've never heard about. Remember, I don't have to post but I am giving that advanced, publicly elusive analysis that you won't find anywhere else in the world.
To say "the public" is on the Spurs may seem obvious but actually leaves few answers and many questions, including what one means by "the public." This kind of one dimensional trivial handicapping is exactly why some of us continue to outperform the marketplace and take from the losing bettors. I'm trying to shed some light and offer a peek into a sharp analysts thinking.
If someone is reading this, and they can create there own valid line in sports, then I can guarantee, mathematically, that I can increase their bottom line...even if working in private. I know this is true from the past and see no indication so far that it won't be true moving forward.
If your handicapping is struggling and you are close to even, percentage and profit wise, I can say the same in helping to decrease your losses, or possibly turn you to profit.
I've taught handicappers and have colluded with some of the best in the world through a couple of decades. This Forum shit is relatively new to me, as it has had little use. It's even been a distraction at times.
Like I said before, track your bets and why you made them. If you want to increase your win percentage, you must first establish your current percentage. If you know where you are it is much easier to get to where you want to be.
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Kvb is slowly becoming a legend in my books.Comment -
U aint any good yourself, pal.. All you do is talk shit and post meaningless garbage. At least i provide some insight and winners to this forum and don't only come on here to spew useless crap like yourself. Anyways, not getting into this shit with u because u are a troll. Have a nice day.Comment
