so I have 2 points and the prick has one so far...do I bet $50 on the bills tommorrow and take the $50 or what?...
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prick has -1. You've already clinched winning. (Bet the Bills anyways)Comment -
by my count he gets -2 for Alabama...then plus one for Texax Tech...I am at 0, won 2, lost my best bet...I have figured out that there are 9 people who have already beat me and 17 potential people that can beat me...all of this is contingent upon the Bills not covering however...and I have no clue about the NFL, so I'll just wait and see...no real hedge opportunity (combined with the fact that all of the books have the juice -120 slanted towards the bills)...this contest is pretty fun...Comment -
easy man, just let it go and enjoy the contest.Comment -
I'd only hedge a very large pay-off ( it's relative). I had a lot of Florida Marlins futures a couple of years ago ( when they won), at odds up to 150:1 ( placed mid-season at Canbet, and other stores). I hedged. By game 7, I no longer cared much who won the game, that was like a 75k payoff, without any hedging. I blew back a lot of potential profits, but didn't want 75k or a loss of about $800 ( combined odds of winning pennant and WS at various odds). It was too much for me to not to hedge some of it. I did it early and precisely, first was assuring my initial outlay returned.Originally posted by pags11
Hedging is touchy. If you need to hedge then you overbet to start with, it's not generally advisable, but can work very well, indeed.
Someone with Astros futures could bet SL as a hedge in game 4 , win the hedge bet and still wind up going to WS live, then hedge more, if desired.
Hedging Prick's $100 is questionable because the potential payoff is small even for a $10 bettor, plus no initial outlay.
Figuring out how live your "bet" is suggests you have no gamble at all in you, let it ride, it's free after all and not a huge payout.
Some folks hedge the last leg of a made parlay, that's OK if you get proper odds to do so, or later obtain info that suggests getting out of original bet. Routinely doing so is incorrect.
In this case the amount is too small ( for almost anyone ) to screw around with hedging it.
I'll give an example of a free "bet" one might want to hedge.
Hollywood offers a contest paying 10k to anyone picking all 14 ( typically) NFL games ATS. Usually 12-2, or 11-3 wins the consolation prizes. If you were 13-0 going into monday game, a hedge might be advisable. You could even have a middle ( win hedge and contest), as contest lines come out early and don't reflect line moves. Money line on fav could work as well, assuming you need dog +points to be perfect 14-0.
Hedging shouldn't be SOP, it should be a tool in your arsenol, to be used only when appropriate to your needs.Comment -
Really good, detailed post by Doug. Pretty much a definitive answer.Comment -
Thanks, Lakerfan !Comment
