Betting Arizona Diamondbacks Futures in 2009
Betting Arizona Diamondbacks Futures in 2009
Armed with one of the best pitching staffs in the National League and a bright young crop of hitters, the Diamondbacks look poised to claim the division, and maybe more.
The Arizona Diamondbacks truly are a gambler’s team at heart. With a roster full of impatient young players with strikeout rates as high as their potential, it is impossible to know whether 2009 will bring more patience at the plate and more productivity, or more of the same free-swinging struggles that plagued them last year.
The optimist will highlight the Diamondbacks fast start in April 2008, pointing out how the team was just smashing balls out of the park left and right in getting off to a 20-8 start. They will point to the 30+ home run potential of Chris Young, Mark Reynolds, Justin Upton and Stephen Drew, the latter two both considered to be even better prospects then their older brothers were (BJ Upton and JD Drew).
Conor Jackson’s batting .300 last year solidified him as a great middle of the order contact hitter. Chad Tracy and Eric Byrnes provide veteran leadership.
Brandon Webb is among the absolute best in the game year in and year out. Dan Haren, the opening day pitcher on almost any other staff, has electric stuff and with a year in the NL now under his belt can take another step forward this year. The dominance of this 1-2 punch is indisputable, but here is where the optimism comes in.
Max Scherzer is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. He has flat out nasty stuff and has all the potential to be an overpowering ace in the big leagues, as soon as this season. As with all young pitchers though, he is unproven; and more worrisome are his past injury woes.
If Scherzer is healthy, he would eventually fit into the third slot, which bumps Doug Davis to fourth and Jon Garland to fifth. With three dynamic pitchers at the top of the staff and two serviceable ones at the bottom of it, Arizona would be a force to be reckoned with. With Scherzer out, Davis would be in the third spot, Garland in the fourth, and a depth pitcher in the fifth, putting a bit more pressure on the young offense to produce runs to win games.
The skeptic would point out that the team was second in the league in strikeouts, 20th in run production, and 19th in home runs last season; numbers that may not be improved upon at all with virtually the same roster (minus Adam Dunn, too). With Manny Ramirez with the Dodgers right from the get go, they are the easy pick to win the NL West.
I can see the merit in both arguments, and so many unknowns will lead people to find value in both fading and tailing the Diamondbacks this year. I for one am definitely in the optimist camp.
Last year the Diamondbacks front office fearlessly left the field to their young prospects, which was a smart move in my opinion and likely did wonders for their development. The team managed 82 wins last year, largely without the services of their emotional leader and excellent base runner Eric Byrnes as well as utility infielder Chad Tracy. These two healthy and at the very least available in backup and pinch hitting roles should help immensely, giving the Diamondbacks plenty of options depending on the pitching match ups and how hot or cold certain players are.
The pedigree on these Arizona prospects is just too good to think that at least one or two of them won’t take a big step forward and have a breakout year after learning the ropes last season (I’m looking at you, Justin Upton).
The division looks weak again this year, too. Los Angeles has a very good looking offense, but pitching (which is usually their strong point) has a lot of question marks this year. Colorado also has a good looking offense, but the effect of not having Holliday in the lineup is yet to be seen, and the starting pitching and bullpen leaves plenty to be desired. San Francisco has a very good pitching staff, but doesn’t have the offense to make it count. San Diego is pretty bad across the board, with only a few bright spots (Jake Peavy, Adrian Gonzalez) in the mix.
Lastly, the Diamondbacks have such a wealth of young talent that they are in perfect position to make a trade or two at the deadline to put them over the top if need be. If they are active in the trade market this season, it will almost certainly be as a buyer instead of a seller.
Factor in the offensive depth, the potential for growth, the weak division, and the Scherzer trump card, and this team improving last year’s win total by 5-8 wins seems within reason to me.
So assuming you agree with me that this team can be an 86 to 90 win team this year, where are some good spots to make money on Diamondbacks futures? Taking a look around, I’ve found a few spots worth taking a closer look at.
Win the NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks +160 (Bodog)
The price on the Diamondbacks shot up when Manny Ramirez was signed by the Dodgers as they became the favorite to win the division. Manny and a healthy Furcal make this offense a lot more dangerous, but I still question their pitching staff and its depth this year. Last season it only took 84 wins to win the NL West, and the division (other than the addition of Manny) doesn’t look a whole lot better this year. A high 80 win total could cash this ticket, and seems like a good gamble at this price.
Arizona Diamondbacks over 86½ regular season wins +100 (The Greek)
Another issue of faith. Asking a team that didn’t make too many changes this off season to improve their win total by 5 is a pretty tall order; but this just goes to show how much respect this means Arizona is getting from bookmakers. Public money will likely follow the Dodgers and fade the Diamondbacks, but I’m sticking to my guns.
Season Series Price: Arizona Diamondbacks (-170) over Colorado Rockies (The Greek)
If you don’t mind eating a little chalk, this is a very tempting wager. Rarely (if ever) will a Rockies pitcher take the mound that is superior to the pitcher taking the mound for the Diamondbacks. Just the mismatch you get in Webb and Haren starts alone make this bet worthwhile.
Regular Season Wins: Arizona Diamondbacks +0.5 wins (+120) over Tampa Bay Rays (The Greek)
Last season the Rays finished with 97 wins to the Diamondbacks 82. This spread goes to show you what direction bookmakers think these two teams are going in. I’m projecting the Rays to finish in the mid-to-low 80s in wins, dishing out yet another payout if the Diamondbacks finish in the high 80s. Getting a team in one of the worst divisions in baseball over a team in one of the best divisions in baseball at +120 is fun, too.
World Series Champions: Arizona Diamondbacks +1850 (The Greek)
If Arizona makes the playoffs, they will be a very tough team to play against, especially in the first round’s best of five format. Batting against Webb and Haren in a best of five would be frightening, and if Scherzer ends up being as good as his potential screams he might be, Arizona would be all the more lethal in this format. A win in the first round now leaves you with a bet 100 to win 1850 ticket only two series away from cashing. Depending on how good the team is looking, you can decide to hedge or let it ride then; but either way, it would be a nice ticket to hold regardless.
Some might still be skeptical that Arizona will take this big leap forward, but every year a team seems to come “out of nowhere” and take the league by storm. Hindsight is always 20/20; “Oh, that was so obvious, how did I miss it?” Well, a roster full of young and energetic players with a ton of upside led by two of the games best starting pitchers is as good a place to gamble on as any. And if they end up being this year’s “it” team, you get to brag to all of your friends that you called it; and more importantly, you get to cash all those tickets in your pocket.
Armed with one of the best pitching staffs in the National League and a bright young crop of hitters, the Diamondbacks look poised to claim the division, and maybe more.
The Arizona Diamondbacks truly are a gambler’s team at heart. With a roster full of impatient young players with strikeout rates as high as their potential, it is impossible to know whether 2009 will bring more patience at the plate and more productivity, or more of the same free-swinging struggles that plagued them last year.
The optimist will highlight the Diamondbacks fast start in April 2008, pointing out how the team was just smashing balls out of the park left and right in getting off to a 20-8 start. They will point to the 30+ home run potential of Chris Young, Mark Reynolds, Justin Upton and Stephen Drew, the latter two both considered to be even better prospects then their older brothers were (BJ Upton and JD Drew).
Conor Jackson’s batting .300 last year solidified him as a great middle of the order contact hitter. Chad Tracy and Eric Byrnes provide veteran leadership.
Brandon Webb is among the absolute best in the game year in and year out. Dan Haren, the opening day pitcher on almost any other staff, has electric stuff and with a year in the NL now under his belt can take another step forward this year. The dominance of this 1-2 punch is indisputable, but here is where the optimism comes in.
Max Scherzer is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. He has flat out nasty stuff and has all the potential to be an overpowering ace in the big leagues, as soon as this season. As with all young pitchers though, he is unproven; and more worrisome are his past injury woes.
If Scherzer is healthy, he would eventually fit into the third slot, which bumps Doug Davis to fourth and Jon Garland to fifth. With three dynamic pitchers at the top of the staff and two serviceable ones at the bottom of it, Arizona would be a force to be reckoned with. With Scherzer out, Davis would be in the third spot, Garland in the fourth, and a depth pitcher in the fifth, putting a bit more pressure on the young offense to produce runs to win games.
The skeptic would point out that the team was second in the league in strikeouts, 20th in run production, and 19th in home runs last season; numbers that may not be improved upon at all with virtually the same roster (minus Adam Dunn, too). With Manny Ramirez with the Dodgers right from the get go, they are the easy pick to win the NL West.
I can see the merit in both arguments, and so many unknowns will lead people to find value in both fading and tailing the Diamondbacks this year. I for one am definitely in the optimist camp.
Last year the Diamondbacks front office fearlessly left the field to their young prospects, which was a smart move in my opinion and likely did wonders for their development. The team managed 82 wins last year, largely without the services of their emotional leader and excellent base runner Eric Byrnes as well as utility infielder Chad Tracy. These two healthy and at the very least available in backup and pinch hitting roles should help immensely, giving the Diamondbacks plenty of options depending on the pitching match ups and how hot or cold certain players are.
The pedigree on these Arizona prospects is just too good to think that at least one or two of them won’t take a big step forward and have a breakout year after learning the ropes last season (I’m looking at you, Justin Upton).
The division looks weak again this year, too. Los Angeles has a very good looking offense, but pitching (which is usually their strong point) has a lot of question marks this year. Colorado also has a good looking offense, but the effect of not having Holliday in the lineup is yet to be seen, and the starting pitching and bullpen leaves plenty to be desired. San Francisco has a very good pitching staff, but doesn’t have the offense to make it count. San Diego is pretty bad across the board, with only a few bright spots (Jake Peavy, Adrian Gonzalez) in the mix.
Lastly, the Diamondbacks have such a wealth of young talent that they are in perfect position to make a trade or two at the deadline to put them over the top if need be. If they are active in the trade market this season, it will almost certainly be as a buyer instead of a seller.
Factor in the offensive depth, the potential for growth, the weak division, and the Scherzer trump card, and this team improving last year’s win total by 5-8 wins seems within reason to me.
So assuming you agree with me that this team can be an 86 to 90 win team this year, where are some good spots to make money on Diamondbacks futures? Taking a look around, I’ve found a few spots worth taking a closer look at.
Win the NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks +160 (Bodog)
The price on the Diamondbacks shot up when Manny Ramirez was signed by the Dodgers as they became the favorite to win the division. Manny and a healthy Furcal make this offense a lot more dangerous, but I still question their pitching staff and its depth this year. Last season it only took 84 wins to win the NL West, and the division (other than the addition of Manny) doesn’t look a whole lot better this year. A high 80 win total could cash this ticket, and seems like a good gamble at this price.
Arizona Diamondbacks over 86½ regular season wins +100 (The Greek)
Another issue of faith. Asking a team that didn’t make too many changes this off season to improve their win total by 5 is a pretty tall order; but this just goes to show how much respect this means Arizona is getting from bookmakers. Public money will likely follow the Dodgers and fade the Diamondbacks, but I’m sticking to my guns.
Season Series Price: Arizona Diamondbacks (-170) over Colorado Rockies (The Greek)
If you don’t mind eating a little chalk, this is a very tempting wager. Rarely (if ever) will a Rockies pitcher take the mound that is superior to the pitcher taking the mound for the Diamondbacks. Just the mismatch you get in Webb and Haren starts alone make this bet worthwhile.
Regular Season Wins: Arizona Diamondbacks +0.5 wins (+120) over Tampa Bay Rays (The Greek)
Last season the Rays finished with 97 wins to the Diamondbacks 82. This spread goes to show you what direction bookmakers think these two teams are going in. I’m projecting the Rays to finish in the mid-to-low 80s in wins, dishing out yet another payout if the Diamondbacks finish in the high 80s. Getting a team in one of the worst divisions in baseball over a team in one of the best divisions in baseball at +120 is fun, too.
World Series Champions: Arizona Diamondbacks +1850 (The Greek)
If Arizona makes the playoffs, they will be a very tough team to play against, especially in the first round’s best of five format. Batting against Webb and Haren in a best of five would be frightening, and if Scherzer ends up being as good as his potential screams he might be, Arizona would be all the more lethal in this format. A win in the first round now leaves you with a bet 100 to win 1850 ticket only two series away from cashing. Depending on how good the team is looking, you can decide to hedge or let it ride then; but either way, it would be a nice ticket to hold regardless.
Some might still be skeptical that Arizona will take this big leap forward, but every year a team seems to come “out of nowhere” and take the league by storm. Hindsight is always 20/20; “Oh, that was so obvious, how did I miss it?” Well, a roster full of young and energetic players with a ton of upside led by two of the games best starting pitchers is as good a place to gamble on as any. And if they end up being this year’s “it” team, you get to brag to all of your friends that you called it; and more importantly, you get to cash all those tickets in your pocket.
Lets get 'em this year