Would It Be +EV To Do This...

d2bets · 12-23-11, 12:59 AM

This is a rhetorical question, right?

daneault23 · 12-23-11, 12:59 AM

Actually or you could just bet on those teams ML and they should prob be at least even.

warriorfan707 · 12-23-11, 01:00 AM

Problem is splitting you pay out the juice, so it may not be +EV at all

suicidekings · 12-23-11, 04:53 AM

Originally posted by daneault23

According to SBRodds, at The Greek Bulls are +2.5, well if Lakers were to somehow move to +2.5 and if either team wins by 2 or 1 you win both. If they win by three or more, you split. Would it be +EV to have this middle and bet on both sides?

You can determine the value of this middle using the Half Point Calculator, or using NBA push probabilities directly.

However in this particular example, there's no way you'd get Lakers +2.5 unless you're talking about using live betting and then it opens up a lot more questions and assumptions that make it harder to answer. In general, +2.5 on both sides is not a big window to shoot for in the NBA.

FourLengthsClear · 12-23-11, 05:02 AM

Originally posted by daneault23

According to SBRodds, at The Greek Bulls are +2.5, well if Lakers were to somehow move to +2.5 and if either team wins by 2 or 1 you win both. If they win by three or more, you split. Would it be +EV to have this middle and bet on both sides?

It would be +EV yes but it would be a lower +EV than simply holding on to your initial bet.

ApricotSinner32 · 12-23-11, 05:37 AM

Asking these types of questions will typically get you a shit answer 99.485573757574% of the time on this forum.

rm18 · 12-23-11, 05:45 AM

I dont think they are +2.5 at greek it is probably OTB and was 2.5 when they pulled it

warriorfan707 · 12-23-11, 06:17 AM

Originally posted by FourLengthsClear

It would be +EV yes but it would be a lower +EV than simply holding on to your initial bet.

Bongo · 12-23-11, 06:33 AM

I see Lakers are listed at +3 at SI.

OT but a question I have would be if OP could get +2.5 at 2 books, could the book with the different line from the widely available line at other books just cancel your wager, citing it was a "bad" line?

Bill Dozer · 12-23-11, 07:32 AM

Originally posted by Bongo

I see Lakers are listed at +3 at SI.

OT but a question I have would be if OP could get +2.5 at 2 books, could the book with the different line from the widely available line at other books just cancel your wager, citing it was a "bad" line?

If a book canceled the bet and it led to a complaint, we would look at if they failed to move it or if it was released with the -+ swapped. It would almost always be an obvious error as lines arent off by 5 points. If the two best players had a collision in practice and were out, and one book failed to take it OTB then they'd be expected to honor the line. Its their job to be up to speed with whats going on. In this case, SBRodds is showing the last line for the book because the feed doesnt send "offline" so we are working with the books for a solution.

Bongo · 12-23-11, 07:52 AM

^^
Thanks Mr. Dozer!

daneault23 · 12-25-11, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by daneault23

According to SBRodds, at The Greek Bulls are +2.5, well if Lakers were to somehow move to +2.5 and if either team wins by 2 or 1 you win both. If they win by three or more, you split. Would it be +EV to have this middle and bet on both sides?

too bad I didnt bet on Bulls when the line first came out

. Lakers now +4.5 at most places.