Louisville or NC: Most likely to fall?

**MonkeyF0cker** · 03-28-09, 08:41 PM

Yeah. Like Louisville and Oklahoma tomorrow.

**jjgold** · 03-28-09, 08:43 PM

Both top seeds will win

**BetterBetter** · 03-28-09, 08:46 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Both top seeds will win

**BobHarvey** · 03-28-09, 11:59 PM

I think Oklahoma has the best chance at an upset but I agree with J.J. both top seeds will win.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 03-29-09, 12:21 AM

I think the size of Oklahoma could give UNC more fits than people anticipate, especially on the glass. Oklahoma outsizes UNC at every position. Griffin should be able to handle Hansbrough on both sides of the ball. I think this game comes down to guard play for UNC. If Ellington, Green, and Lawson continue to be hot from behind the arc, look out. However, Lawson has looked to settle more for the perimeter shot since his injury rather than penetrating and dishing. If they don't knock down their perimeter shots or if Lawson reaggravates his toe injury, Oklahoma has the edge inside and could very well steal this one. I look for Oklahoma to slow down the tempo and work it inside to Griffin as much as possible. This could put some key players for UNC in some foul trouble. By tipoff, I think this line will be inflated. Oklahoma will be a solid value and could surprise quite a few people tomorrow.

**The_Kid** · 03-29-09, 12:31 AM

MF, UNC has size too. You're making it sound like Oklahoma towers over UNC, which I don't think is the case. Griffin probably has a couple inches on Hansborough but UNC will either let him get his or make the other guys beat them. You mentioned foul trouble, but UNC could put Deon Thompson or Ed Davis on Griffin. They could also choose to play zone. Warren is probably the same height as Ellington and Green and Crocker are similar in height too. I just don't think Oklahoma has enough firepower to keep up with UNC. If Blake Griffin can carry his team past the Tar Heels, you just have to tip your hat to the guy. To me, I just don't think it will happen.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 03-29-09, 12:45 AM

Everyone has tried to zone up the Sooners. It hasn't been effective to this point. I don't think people understand that there is more to this team than Griffin.

**kevindakota00** · 03-29-09, 12:58 AM

both favorites will easily cover the spread and LT and Mcmanible will strongly agree. do not belive me?

just donate your money to me instead.

**kevindakota00** · 03-29-09, 12:59 AM

both top seeds will win by dd maybe 20+

**BetterBetter** · 03-29-09, 01:59 AM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

I think the size of Oklahoma could give UNC more fits than people anticipate, especially on the glass. Oklahoma outsizes UNC at every position.

Starters:
C Hansbrough 6'9'' 250 Blake Griffin 6'10'' 251
F Deon Thompson 6'8'' 240 Taylor Griffin 6'7'' 238
G/F Danny Green 6'6'' 210 Tony Crocker 6'6'' 206
G Wayne Ellington 6'4'' 200 Willie Warren 6'4'' 207
G Ty Lawson 5'11'' 195 Austin Johnson 6'3'' 170

Bench:
F Ed Davis 6'10'' 220 Ryan Wright 6'9'' 234
G Bobby Frazor 6'3'' 210 Cade Davis 6'5'' 208
G Larry Drew II 6'1'' 180 Omar Leary 5'11'' 173
F Tyler Zeller 7'0'' 220 Orlando Allen 6'11'' 267

**treece** · 03-29-09, 02:36 AM

Michigan State will cover. #1 rebounding team getting +7. They should get enough second chance points.

**pico** · 03-29-09, 04:16 AM

blake griffin is better than jesus

**The HG** · 03-29-09, 04:42 AM

IMO, Louisville.

Lville has some legit, if minor, weaknesses, and MSU has a speedy PG and depth.

Oklahoma, I agree, is much more than Griffin, and of course has Griffin, but UNC is a legit juggernaut IMO. I don't think they're likely to romp like they did vs Gonzaga, but are they more likely to get knocked off than Lville? No way, IMO.

**Milkman** · 03-29-09, 08:14 AM

Originally posted by kevindakota00

both top seeds will win by dd maybe 20+

I will take both dogs at +dd and I gaurntee I do no worse than 1-1.

**Bob Roberts** · 03-29-09, 10:01 AM

Blake Griffin is the best player on the court. But UNC has the 5 of the best 6 players on the court. Did you see how Johnny flynn was blowing by the Sooner guards? Those farm boys are too slow and not tough enough to defend the UNC guards. Griffin will get his double double, but if the Sooner gaurds don't hit their jumpers, Oklahoma simply won't be able to keep up with the 90 to 100 points UNC is going to put up.

Michigan State is well coached and IF they don't turn it over, louisville could be in for a battle like uconn had to battle with missouri last night. This one is too much of a coinflip for me, I am staying away, though if it is tight at half-time, and Michigan State is hanging around because of above average outside shooting, I am going to hammer the second half bet on louisville.

Question: does michigan state have enough good rebounders to defend their glass and create second chances for them on offensived glass against louisville? Can some provide insight on this for me? Thank you.

**slacker00** · 03-29-09, 10:19 AM

Both dogs are worth betting today. Neither one is better than the other.

**solobass** · 03-29-09, 11:40 AM

Originally posted by kevindakota00

both favorites will easily cover the spread and LT and Mcmanible will strongly agree. do not belive me?

just donate your money to me instead.

i will donate

MSU +6.5

i will come back tomorrow to either heap scorn or take what i have coming.....

**solobass** · 03-29-09, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by slacker00

Both dogs are worth betting today. Neither one is better than the other.

amen, and look how much public money is on the favorites today that alone is a good indicator. keep watching that espn folks.....

**solobass** · 03-29-09, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by Bob Roberts

Blake Griffin is the best player on the court. But UNC has the 5 of the best 6 players on the court. Did you see how Johnny flynn was blowing by the Sooner guards? Those farm boys are too slow and not tough enough to defend the UNC guards. Griffin will get his double double, but if the Sooner gaurds don't hit their jumpers, Oklahoma simply won't be able to keep up with the 90 to 100 points UNC is going to put up.

Michigan State is well coached and IF they don't turn it over, louisville could be in for a battle like uconn had to battle with missouri last night. This one is too much of a coinflip for me, I am staying away, though if it is tight at half-time, and Michigan State is hanging around because of above average outside shooting, I am going to hammer the second half bet on louisville.

Question: does michigan state have enough good rebounders to defend their glass and create second chances for them on offensived glass against louisville? Can some provide insight on this for me? Thank you.

Michigan State is the best rebounding team in the nation.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 03-29-09, 11:51 AM

I still don't understand how OU wins games??? Everytime I'm sure there going to lose they keep beating teams easily. I'm going with UNC today but won't be surprised if OU wins the game. The Ville should cover easily.

**Bob Roberts** · 03-29-09, 12:07 PM

Originally posted by solobass

Michigan State is the best rebounding team in the nation.

Thanks Solo.... On paper, yes they are.....

What I meant was more specifically how they actually match-up against each other.... As you know, college bball is all about eludicating how 2 teams who never have played against each other will fare in personal match-ups. On paper Douchebag A has great numbers, but in a particular 1 on 1 match-up his opponent might have too much speed for him etc.... I have not watch Michgan State enough to get a "feel" for their players.

Solo, I am going with a small play on michigan state....thanks for your input.

**SpartyPt11** · 03-29-09, 12:38 PM

Michigan State is a tale of two teams!! They can go 1-19 from 3 and lose by 15 or 5-11 from 3 with a good inside game to help them win!! They are an offensive libility sometimes but this years team is better at scoring then past teams! One thing though it doesnt matter if they are out sized at all. If a shot goes up 5 guys will crash the glass for a rebound and they will fight to get it! they will always play D also!!! That is y MSU is scary as hell becasue when they play their game and hit 3s they are tough to beat no 3 ball no much chance! Hope that helps!

**Bob Roberts** · 03-29-09, 01:48 PM

Originally posted by Bob Roberts

Thanks Solo.... On paper, yes they are.....

What I meant was more specifically how they actually match-up against each other.... As you know, college bball is all about eludicating how 2 teams who never have played against each other will fare in personal match-ups. On paper Douchebag A has great numbers, but in a particular 1 on 1 match-up his opponent might have too much speed for him etc.... I have not watch Michgan State enough to get a "feel" for their players.

Solo, I am going with a small play on michigan state....thanks for your input.

10 mintues into the game, and it is apparent that Michgan St. has no chance of offensive rebounds. This is the kind of ideal situatinional match-up ananlysis that I always like to figure out ahead of time, but didn't have a read on for todays game.....

This will be tight game until the Spartan jumpers stop falling, then louisville will pull away...

I like my original post in this thread, take louisville 2nd half if its close and michigan has above average shooting percentage in the first half

**unde0087** · 03-29-09, 01:54 PM

Mich St isn't going away and they by far have the best chance to win because OU isn't going to. Mich St is just as deep and will not wear down like other teams.

**unde0087** · 03-29-09, 03:09 PM

Originally posted by Bob Roberts

10 mintues into the game, and it is apparent that Michgan St. has no chance of offensive rebounds. This is the kind of ideal situatinional match-up ananlysis that I always like to figure out ahead of time, but didn't have a read on for todays game.....

This will be tight game until the Spartan jumpers stop falling, then louisville will pull away...

I like my original post in this thread, take louisville 2nd half if its close and michigan has above average shooting percentage in the first half

Still waiting?

**Portlander** · 03-29-09, 03:25 PM

Wow.. I hope Louisville enjoys there time off. It looks like they didnt want it. Never pressured the paint, and looked like they didnt know how. Just took horrible jumper after jumper with a sea of green under the basket. Amazing..

**solobass** · 03-29-09, 05:28 PM

yeah so remember what i said about the spartans......thank God i laid the ML too. keep watching that espn for "inside info". how many turnovers were caused by that louisville press? like i said before, louisville can look great against a 12 seed but cannot take a team with junk yard dog instincts.

bottom line, there was so much square money on louisville from people that cannot cap a game and blindly bet a #1 seed with no research or anything, same as last night with villanova where i did the same 2/3 ATS 1/3 ML.