2009 MLB Preview: Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins in thick of AL Central hunt
The Twins went down to the wire in the AL Central last season, bowing out of the postseason picture in a one-game playoff with the White Sox, and they've had all winter to stew about coming so close.
Aside from maybe Game 7 of a World Series, there’s nothing more exciting than a regular season being extended to 163 games for a couple of teams. The last two MLB seasons have seen just such an occurrence with the Rockies and Padres playing off for the 2007 NL Wild Card and the White Sox and Twins going to sudden death for the AL Central last year.
As exciting as the one-game playoff is, however, it’s inevitable that one team and its fans will be left with a disappointed, bitter taste in their mouth all winter. The Twins and their fans have spent just such an offseason in mourning, not to mention bettors that were holding tickets around +1600 for them to win the AL Central.
Minnesota and Chicago went back and forth most of the summer. The ChiSox held a one-game lead over the Twins at the All-Star break on July 13, the Twins had the one game lead on Aug 22, the two teams were deadlocked (77-61) after play on Sep 2, you get the picture. Chicago took a 2½-game lead into Minnesota for a 3-game series starting Sep 23, and the Twins promptly swept all three to move back in front by a half-game.
At the end of play on the final Sunday of the season (Sep 29), Minnesota still had that half-game lead after they dropped two of three at home to the Royals on the final weekend. That forced Chicago to makeup a rainout with Detroit on Monday, a game in which the Tigers simply failed to show up for having lost interest in the season before September calendars were up. The White Sox won the makeup, and then took the playoff game the following day at home from the Twins in a 1-0 nail-biter to win the AL Central flag.
Minnesota winters are always cold, but this last one must have seemed even colder for the Twins and their fans. Even manager Ron Gardenhire remarked the loss at the end after coming so close stayed with him from October through January.
“It's still one of those things where you get that cold sweat again because you know how close you were to the playoffs. You don't get those opportunities very often and we had that chance, but we couldn't come up with a couple runs to get there,” Gardenhire recently told Kelly Thesier in an interview on the team’s MLB.com site. “But once we have gotten on the field down here in spring, you kind of let go of it. Being on the baseball field kind of relieves all of the things that you spent all winter thinking about.
“Every year is different, still that's something they will remember. They won't forget it easily. None of us will. But you can use it as motivation like, 'Hey, every game means something.' When you end up in a dead tie at the end of the year, you realize that when we talk about being one hit away or one pitch away, you realize how really important every game is. It kind of magnifies it.”
Gardenhire and the Twins know that the best way to forget 2008 is to win in 2009, and they have a team that is very capable of taking the division this season.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
They didn’t have much power, ranking last in the AL with 111 homers, and while they did rank fifth in steals with 102, about a third of those base thefts came from one rookie who didn’t even reach .300 in the on-base column. Yet the Twins still managed to score runs with the best of them, crossing the plate 829 times to finish third in the American League in that category.
Minnesota is a team built for their home park, posting a 289-196 (.595) record at the Metrodome since the start of the 2003 season. That includes a 53-28 record on their home field last season where they also scored about a half-run more than on the road – 5.32 runs at home, 4.85 on the road.
Returning the bulk of those same position players that accounted for those 829 runs last year, the Twins should be on board for similar offense this year. One problem is they will be without a big stick in the order in the early going.
Catcher Joe Mauer underwent some kidney surgery in December and his recovery went a little slower than expected. And now he’s experiencing back pain, diagnosed as an “inflammation of the sacroiliac joint,” and it looks like mid-April before he’s going to return. That is a very important bat to not have in the lineup after Mauer led the team with a .328 average and 98 runs scored in 2008.
With no Mauer, it means the Twins turn to Mike Redmond and Jose Morales to handle their catching chores.
The infield is set with Justin Morneau leading the way at first. Yet another stick the Twins cannot afford to have out of their lineup for any extended time, Morneau dipped below 30 HR last season but still came within one of matching his career high in RBI with 129 while hitting .300 and banging 47 doubles.
In the middle of the diamond will be switch-hitters Alexi Casilla at second and Nick Punto at short. Signed in the offseason to hopefully add a little pop to the order, Joe Crede will take over at third coming off a 17-HR season in which injuries limited him to 97 games for the White Sox.
Best bets for infield backups are Brendan Harris and Matt Tolbert, both of whom are very versatile and can play all over the field, with Brian Buscher also in the mix depending on how many arms Gardenhire and pitching coach Rick Anderson decide to take north.
The outfield is where there is tremendous depth on this club with five good enough to start. The worst of them defensively is Jason Kubel, and he will spend the bulk of his time at DH. Plans now are for him to hit third in the batting order until Mauer returns.
Michael Cuddyer, who missed action last season with a broken foot, is healthy this spring and getting used to better vision after offseason Lasik surgery. The speedy Carlos Gomez is in center, and if this kid can bump his on-base mark up from the .296 last season to .340 or better, he’s going to be a terror on the bases.
Left field appears to be Denard Span’s for the moment, though he’s having a rough time this spring and that could open the door for Delmon Young to take that job. Young was very hot and cold at the plate last season, and fell out of favor with the Minnesota fans for some shoddy defense, but remains a very talented young player.
PITCHING
When they dealt Johan Santana to the Mets last February, it was supposed to be the fatal blow for Minnesota’s chances in 2008. With their ace gone and young Francisco Liriano’s status still uncertain, there was simply not going to be enough starting pitching for the Twins to compete. Or so it was believed.
Without Santana, the staff ERA rose ever so slightly from 2007, inching up from 4.15 to 4.18 in ’08. A marvelous season once again out of the pen by closer Joe Nathan certainly helped, but the improvements by Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey also played a key role in the Twins being able to stay in the playoff hunt until that fateful 163rd game.
As things turned out, the club did try to rush Liriano back a little early before sacking the trial just three starts into the lefty’s season. Give Liriano credit though for biding his time in the minors and getting himself back in major league shape. Returning in early August with an 11.32 ERA and 0-3 record on the ledger already from his April outings, Liriano went 6-1 over his final 11 starts – Minnesota was 6-5 in those games. He’s having a very nice spring with a 2.95 ERA in six starts, whiffing 19 in his 21.1 innings of work.
Liriano, Baker and Slowey fill out the first three slots in the rotation this season, with Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins taking the last two starting jobs. With Boof Bonser apparently lost for the season to shoulder surgery, it probably means Philip Humber, part of the compensation from New York for Santana a year ago, sticks as the long man out of the pen and first arm promoted into the rotation when needed.
With Jesse Crain having a very strong spring so far, he appears more than ready to be the primary setup arm for Nathan once again. Luis Ayala, a free agent pickup in the winter, is back in camp after touring with the team from Mexico in the WBC and Matt Guerrier will be the righthanders for the sixth and seventh innings.
Gardenhire should have plenty of lefthanders to choose from to fill out the remaining relief roles. Craig Breslow will be one of them, and as things stand now Brian Duensing has pitched his way past Jose Mijares for another spot on the big league roster.
SCHEDULE
The Twins have one screwed up schedule as far as AL clubs go. It’s not as uneven as some of the NL Central clubs face, but some of their home-away turns against AL teams are really messed up. Minnesota will not face an AL Central team at home in April despite having a home-heavy slate in the opening month (14 at home, eight on the road).
When the simulations were run back in early February, the Twins were setup for a full season from Joe Mauer. That isn’t the case now, so the 84.0 wins Minnesota averaged could be a little high and that has me straddling the fence on The Greek’s win break which is currently at 83½ and priced at -110 for both the Over and the Under. I do still like them to end up in the mid-80s and be in the AL Central hunt with the Indians, but just feel there are better Over/Under wagers to be had out there.
The Greek also has their betting odds set at +3550 for the Twins to go all the way and win the World Series, listing Minnesota at +245 in the AL Central and +1415 to win the AL Pennant. Today’s odds at 5Dimes have the Twins +3000 in the World Series, +1700 in the AL and +250 in the AL Central.
The Twins went down to the wire in the AL Central last season, bowing out of the postseason picture in a one-game playoff with the White Sox, and they've had all winter to stew about coming so close.
Aside from maybe Game 7 of a World Series, there’s nothing more exciting than a regular season being extended to 163 games for a couple of teams. The last two MLB seasons have seen just such an occurrence with the Rockies and Padres playing off for the 2007 NL Wild Card and the White Sox and Twins going to sudden death for the AL Central last year.
As exciting as the one-game playoff is, however, it’s inevitable that one team and its fans will be left with a disappointed, bitter taste in their mouth all winter. The Twins and their fans have spent just such an offseason in mourning, not to mention bettors that were holding tickets around +1600 for them to win the AL Central.
Minnesota and Chicago went back and forth most of the summer. The ChiSox held a one-game lead over the Twins at the All-Star break on July 13, the Twins had the one game lead on Aug 22, the two teams were deadlocked (77-61) after play on Sep 2, you get the picture. Chicago took a 2½-game lead into Minnesota for a 3-game series starting Sep 23, and the Twins promptly swept all three to move back in front by a half-game.
At the end of play on the final Sunday of the season (Sep 29), Minnesota still had that half-game lead after they dropped two of three at home to the Royals on the final weekend. That forced Chicago to makeup a rainout with Detroit on Monday, a game in which the Tigers simply failed to show up for having lost interest in the season before September calendars were up. The White Sox won the makeup, and then took the playoff game the following day at home from the Twins in a 1-0 nail-biter to win the AL Central flag.
Minnesota winters are always cold, but this last one must have seemed even colder for the Twins and their fans. Even manager Ron Gardenhire remarked the loss at the end after coming so close stayed with him from October through January.
“It's still one of those things where you get that cold sweat again because you know how close you were to the playoffs. You don't get those opportunities very often and we had that chance, but we couldn't come up with a couple runs to get there,” Gardenhire recently told Kelly Thesier in an interview on the team’s MLB.com site. “But once we have gotten on the field down here in spring, you kind of let go of it. Being on the baseball field kind of relieves all of the things that you spent all winter thinking about.
“Every year is different, still that's something they will remember. They won't forget it easily. None of us will. But you can use it as motivation like, 'Hey, every game means something.' When you end up in a dead tie at the end of the year, you realize that when we talk about being one hit away or one pitch away, you realize how really important every game is. It kind of magnifies it.”
Gardenhire and the Twins know that the best way to forget 2008 is to win in 2009, and they have a team that is very capable of taking the division this season.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
They didn’t have much power, ranking last in the AL with 111 homers, and while they did rank fifth in steals with 102, about a third of those base thefts came from one rookie who didn’t even reach .300 in the on-base column. Yet the Twins still managed to score runs with the best of them, crossing the plate 829 times to finish third in the American League in that category.
Minnesota is a team built for their home park, posting a 289-196 (.595) record at the Metrodome since the start of the 2003 season. That includes a 53-28 record on their home field last season where they also scored about a half-run more than on the road – 5.32 runs at home, 4.85 on the road.
Returning the bulk of those same position players that accounted for those 829 runs last year, the Twins should be on board for similar offense this year. One problem is they will be without a big stick in the order in the early going.
Catcher Joe Mauer underwent some kidney surgery in December and his recovery went a little slower than expected. And now he’s experiencing back pain, diagnosed as an “inflammation of the sacroiliac joint,” and it looks like mid-April before he’s going to return. That is a very important bat to not have in the lineup after Mauer led the team with a .328 average and 98 runs scored in 2008.
With no Mauer, it means the Twins turn to Mike Redmond and Jose Morales to handle their catching chores.
The infield is set with Justin Morneau leading the way at first. Yet another stick the Twins cannot afford to have out of their lineup for any extended time, Morneau dipped below 30 HR last season but still came within one of matching his career high in RBI with 129 while hitting .300 and banging 47 doubles.
In the middle of the diamond will be switch-hitters Alexi Casilla at second and Nick Punto at short. Signed in the offseason to hopefully add a little pop to the order, Joe Crede will take over at third coming off a 17-HR season in which injuries limited him to 97 games for the White Sox.
Best bets for infield backups are Brendan Harris and Matt Tolbert, both of whom are very versatile and can play all over the field, with Brian Buscher also in the mix depending on how many arms Gardenhire and pitching coach Rick Anderson decide to take north.
The outfield is where there is tremendous depth on this club with five good enough to start. The worst of them defensively is Jason Kubel, and he will spend the bulk of his time at DH. Plans now are for him to hit third in the batting order until Mauer returns.
Michael Cuddyer, who missed action last season with a broken foot, is healthy this spring and getting used to better vision after offseason Lasik surgery. The speedy Carlos Gomez is in center, and if this kid can bump his on-base mark up from the .296 last season to .340 or better, he’s going to be a terror on the bases.
Left field appears to be Denard Span’s for the moment, though he’s having a rough time this spring and that could open the door for Delmon Young to take that job. Young was very hot and cold at the plate last season, and fell out of favor with the Minnesota fans for some shoddy defense, but remains a very talented young player.
PITCHING
When they dealt Johan Santana to the Mets last February, it was supposed to be the fatal blow for Minnesota’s chances in 2008. With their ace gone and young Francisco Liriano’s status still uncertain, there was simply not going to be enough starting pitching for the Twins to compete. Or so it was believed.
Without Santana, the staff ERA rose ever so slightly from 2007, inching up from 4.15 to 4.18 in ’08. A marvelous season once again out of the pen by closer Joe Nathan certainly helped, but the improvements by Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey also played a key role in the Twins being able to stay in the playoff hunt until that fateful 163rd game.
As things turned out, the club did try to rush Liriano back a little early before sacking the trial just three starts into the lefty’s season. Give Liriano credit though for biding his time in the minors and getting himself back in major league shape. Returning in early August with an 11.32 ERA and 0-3 record on the ledger already from his April outings, Liriano went 6-1 over his final 11 starts – Minnesota was 6-5 in those games. He’s having a very nice spring with a 2.95 ERA in six starts, whiffing 19 in his 21.1 innings of work.
Liriano, Baker and Slowey fill out the first three slots in the rotation this season, with Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins taking the last two starting jobs. With Boof Bonser apparently lost for the season to shoulder surgery, it probably means Philip Humber, part of the compensation from New York for Santana a year ago, sticks as the long man out of the pen and first arm promoted into the rotation when needed.
With Jesse Crain having a very strong spring so far, he appears more than ready to be the primary setup arm for Nathan once again. Luis Ayala, a free agent pickup in the winter, is back in camp after touring with the team from Mexico in the WBC and Matt Guerrier will be the righthanders for the sixth and seventh innings.
Gardenhire should have plenty of lefthanders to choose from to fill out the remaining relief roles. Craig Breslow will be one of them, and as things stand now Brian Duensing has pitched his way past Jose Mijares for another spot on the big league roster.
SCHEDULE
The Twins have one screwed up schedule as far as AL clubs go. It’s not as uneven as some of the NL Central clubs face, but some of their home-away turns against AL teams are really messed up. Minnesota will not face an AL Central team at home in April despite having a home-heavy slate in the opening month (14 at home, eight on the road).
- 11 of first 14 games at home, but all vs. AL East or AL West teams; no home games against AL Central until May 1
- 30-22 (Home-Away) through May; 67-64 through August
- First home game vs. Indians on June 1; first home game vs. White Sox on July 10
- 3-7 (Home-Away) vs. A’s and Rangers, will play each seven times on road before getting either at home
- 7-3 (Home-Away) vs. Mariners, 6-4 vs. Angels
When the simulations were run back in early February, the Twins were setup for a full season from Joe Mauer. That isn’t the case now, so the 84.0 wins Minnesota averaged could be a little high and that has me straddling the fence on The Greek’s win break which is currently at 83½ and priced at -110 for both the Over and the Under. I do still like them to end up in the mid-80s and be in the AL Central hunt with the Indians, but just feel there are better Over/Under wagers to be had out there.
The Greek also has their betting odds set at +3550 for the Twins to go all the way and win the World Series, listing Minnesota at +245 in the AL Central and +1415 to win the AL Pennant. Today’s odds at 5Dimes have the Twins +3000 in the World Series, +1700 in the AL and +250 in the AL Central.