Phoenix Suns look to continue sizzle at Blazers

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  • Chance Harper
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 07-20-07
    • 788

    #1
    Phoenix Suns look to continue sizzle at Blazers
    Phoenix Suns look to continue sizzle at Blazers

    While most of the hoops attention tonight is on the Sweet 16 in the NCAA, two crucial NBA games are on the bill for your viewing and betting pleasure. First up on TNT's Thursday twinbill is the Heat traveling to Chicago to face the Heat in a battle that could determine Eastern playoff seeding. The nightcap finds the desperate and surging Phoenix Suns in Portland to meet Brandon Roy and the Trail Blazers.

    I’m like a kid with a new toy. John Hollinger, one of the leading lights of NBA statistical analysis, has released a new metric called Value Added upon the masses. This new stat tries to pin down how many more points a player provides his team in a season than would a replacement-level substitute. It has much of the look and feel of baseball’s infamous VORP statistic. So of course I’m going to give it a spin for Thursday’s TNT doubleheader.

    Miami at Chicago
    Thursday, Mar 26, 8:00 p.m. (ET) TNT
    Fans of the Heat (38-33 SU, 33-36-2 ATS) are relieved that Dwayne Wade only had to sit out the one game with his lingering hip injury. Miami has split two games SU and ATS since Wade’s return. His numbers are down a little from his MVP-level pace, which had him second only to LeBron James in Value Added:

    1. LeBron James 843.3
    2. Dwyane Wade 795.7
    3. Chris Paul 702.6

    Blame it on wear-and-tear. Miami does have some second-tier offense now in Jermaine O’Neal (18.2 points, 8.6 rebounds per 40 minutes), but O’Neal is also playing with a strained right hip. The Heat are in fourth place in the Eastern Conference, seven games clear of No. 9 Charlotte with 11 games to go. They can afford to take it down a notch.

    The Bulls (34-38 SU, 37-34-1 ATS) have no mulligans to use. They’re 2.5 games ahead of the Bobcats for that coveted No. 8 spot, with Milwaukee, New Jersey and Indiana threatening to crash the party. Chicago is 5-2 SU and ATS in its past seven games, most recently beating the Pistons (+5) 99-91 on Tuesday despite the absence of point guard Derrick Rose (wrist). He’s listed as day-to-day. Coach Vinny Del Negro tightened his rotation against Detroit, going just six-deep with Kirk Hinrich getting his old job back at the 1-spot. Those heavy minutes take their toll eventually.

    Nonetheless, it’s the Bulls having the advantage of a day of rest, with Miami coming off Wednesday’s tilt in Indiana. The Heat are 4-11-1 ATS this year in the second of back-to-back contests.

    Phoenix at Portland
    Thursday, Mar 26, 10:30 p.m. (ET) TNT
    The Suns (40-31 SU, 29-39-2 ATS) will not go down quietly. They’ve won six games in a row at a sizzling 5-1 ATS to move within striking distance of 43-28 Dallas for eighth place in the West. This is with guard Leandro Barbosa (knee) joining the Phoenix injured list, where he’s expected to stay for another week or so. Barbosa is ranked No. 11 among shooting guards at 210.4 VA, so this is hardly a minor problem for the Suns. Jared Dudley (13.44 PER), though, is getting some playing time now at small forward and showing the same moxie that opened eyes in Charlotte last year.

    Portland (44-27 SU, 36-34 ATS) is a game ahead of Dallas in seventh, but only three behind 47-24 San Antonio for second place in the wild Western playoff hunt. Greg Oden (119.2 VA, No. 24 among centers) is starting to find his groove again after a month-long layoff; Oden had 13 points, eight rebounds and a pair of blocks in 25 minutes against Philadelphia, but it wasn’t enough to stop the visiting Sixers (+8) from winning 114-108 in overtime. At least the Blazers have had all that time to rest, while Phoenix is coming off Wednesday night’s exciting 118-114 triumph over the Jazz (+3 on the road).

    Phoenix has owned the season series between these two clubs ever since Steve Nash (246.7 VA, No. 10 among point guards) rejoined the Suns. But their reversal in fortunes started in earnest this year, with Portland beating Phoenix 124-119 at the Rose Garden to snap an 11-game losing streak. The Suns were 5-1 ATS in the previous six meetings.

    Early betting odds had the Blazers laying seven points with a fat total of 221½. The Suns are running up the score again with the over at 13-7 since the arrival of “Seven Seconds or Shaq” under interim coach Alvin Gentry. Portland, in stark contrast, runs the same plodding halfcourt offense that coach Nate McMillan perfected as a player in Seattle. The under is 6-5 in the last 11 Blazers games.
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