Are these true 25% odds?

**Justin7** · 03-23-09, 01:42 PM

Look at the current markets to figure out your equity.

You can figure out the odds of each bet separately by looking at current futures markets once they come out. Until then, you could use "guesstimates" from the original odds removing the eliminated teams.

**Matt Rain** · 03-23-09, 01:46 PM

What Justin said. Your odds of winning are roughly 35% based on current Matchbook prices.

**seaborneq** · 03-23-09, 01:48 PM

Thanks Rain. I have had this happen before a few years ago and won zero. So I hope and trust 35%

**seaborneq** · 03-23-09, 05:39 PM

Come on Nova!!!!!!!

**seaborneq** · 03-27-09, 08:30 PM

LVille 7.5-1, Oklahoma 22-1, and Nova 40-1. Are my odds better than, less than, or equal to 37.5%? I have 3 of the elite 8 left.

**seaborneq** · 03-28-09, 11:06 AM

What are my odds now? Thanks. 3/8.

**Matt Rain** · 03-28-09, 11:22 AM

Just check the current odds... using Pinny:

Louisville +370 (~21.3%)
Oklahoma +1191 (~7.7%)
Villanova +1015 (~9%)

Total = ~38%

...so roughly 3/8 as well. Real no-vig prices are a bit better (the odds a bit worse) if you trust Pinny's numbers to be that accurate.

**seaborneq** · 03-28-09, 11:26 AM

Thanks, and tell me what are you doing to come up with the numbers.

**Matt Rain** · 03-28-09, 11:44 AM

I'm probably one of the worst persons to ask for math advice, but what I do know is that decimal odds are easier to work with when doing this kind of calculation.

To convert positive US prices in decimal odds, add 100 then divide by 100.

+370 becomes 4.7

Your odds of winning a +370 bet are approx. 1/4.7=21.3%

Do the same for your other picks and add up the odds.

**themajormt** · 03-28-09, 11:49 AM

Seaborne are you going to try and hedge with UNC?? I hope Nova cashes for you man!

**seaborneq** · 03-28-09, 06:53 PM

I did not feel UNC this year. Plus their odds were never worth a play. So UNC can ruin it all for me. No hedge.

**seaborneq** · 03-28-09, 09:15 PM

Nova, L'ville, and OK left of six. I still like my chances to make money.

**donjuan** · 03-28-09, 10:34 PM

Plus their odds were never worth a play.

Bodog had +400 on Thursday.

**seaborneq** · 03-29-09, 04:55 AM

They have been the odds on favorite all year. Still are. How is that you could not get 4-1 all year long.

**seaborneq** · 03-29-09, 07:30 PM

One fukking team left. Let's go Nova at 40-1.

**Matt Rain** · 03-29-09, 07:39 PM

It's pretty cool to hold a 40-1 ticket at this point. Will you be looking to hedge? You can get UNC @ -380 right now at TheGreek.

**seaborneq** · 03-29-09, 08:22 PM

It is still early trying to examine the carnage. I still believe that I can win this thing.