Best NFL Handicapper

**TwoWays** · 09-21-14, 10:13 PM

Thx for sharing jmathes. He is on a heater no doubt. Would be interested to see who is leading after monday

**mitch51** · 09-21-14, 10:20 PM

He has been on a heater since the first game of the 2013-14. That's more than a heater. And I thought it was hard to cap the NFL.

Guy should never go back to trading.

**mitch51** · 09-22-14, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by jmathes

You guys have to realize the line movement is very insignificant. Historically, the spread only comes into play approx 10% of the time. With that being said, the line movement affects this maybe 3-4% of the time.

Thanks for turning us on to this guy.

**TankHankerous** · 09-22-14, 04:58 PM

Algorithmic Trader, 3Red Group

David Frohardt-Lane is an algorithmic trader at 3Red Group. He has worked as a trader for nearly 10 years and also consults for a “Big Four” professional sports team.
Prior to working in finance, he made the majority of his income betting on baseball. An individual player projection system and a Monte Carlo simulation, which projected the probability of each team winning the game, were the basis for his bets. Even after a friend convinced him to try a career in trading, he stayed actively involved in sports analytics and continues to spend time working on prediction models.
Most recently, his focus has been the NFL. Using his statistical model as a guide, he has entered several different contests selecting games against the point spread. In 2011, he was the winner of the Cantor Gaming NFL contest, with a record of 58-23-4 (the 2nd best record in recorded Vegas contest history). In 2013, he was the winner of the LVH SuperContest, achieving a record of 55-26-4 and winning $557,000. His lifetime overall record against the point spread across 8 Vegas contest entries is 384-272-26 (58.5%).
Originally from Michigan, Frohardt-Lane holds a BA in math from Carleton College and a MS in statistics from The University of Chicago.

**the1outlaw** · 09-22-14, 05:14 PM

I'm a believer...will be doing some round robins with his picks the rest of the way.

**Plopowitz** · 09-22-14, 06:50 PM

Gaining the Upper Hand: Analytical Advances in Sports Betting

This is sorta long, and I haven't watched the entire thing.. Was excited to share. David is among a few others questioned and begins speaking around the 9:00 mark.

MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference - Sports Analytics, Business, & Technology.

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=13699

We are proud to continue the great tradition of bringing together the leading figures in sports analytics, business, and technology.

**jmathes** · 09-22-14, 07:57 PM

I've been flat betting each of his picks for $1000 each since the beginning of this contest. I hope I don't jinx myself by bragging, but I am up over $17,000 grand and only at week 3. I know it will average out to approx 65-70% by the end of the contest but 80% in the first 3 weeks is just printing money.

9/22/14 6:00pm $520.00 $577.20 Pending 9/22/14 8:35pm NFL Football 479 Chicago Bears -1 +111* vs New York Jets
9/21/14 11:49pm $400.00 $500.00 Pending 9/22/14 8:35pm Reduced Football 479 Chicago Bears +125* vs New York Jets
9/21/14 11:48pm $1100.00 $1100.00 Pending 9/22/14 8:35pm Reduced Football 479 Chicago Bears +2½ +100* vs New York Jets

Tonight I have approx 2k on the bears since he picked them twice in the contest.

**briedward** · 09-22-14, 11:02 PM

shhh the more popular he gets the more the lines will change

**ATSFTW** · 09-23-14, 07:44 AM

Originally posted by briedward

shhh the more popular he gets the more the lines will change

This

**RGIlles** · 09-23-14, 09:05 AM

Guys how do we know if the picks are on the moneyline or spread? The website only states the team.

**El Nino** · 09-23-14, 09:15 AM

Originally posted by RGIlles

Guys how do we know if the picks are on the moneyline or spread? The website only states the team.

Jesus Christ, you have to be kidding me...

**Da Manster!** · 09-23-14, 09:35 AM

Originally posted by El Nino

Jesus Christ you have to be kidding me...

that's not Jesus Christ, El Nino...it's RGIlles!....

**El Nino** · 09-23-14, 09:37 AM

Originally posted by Da Manster!

that's not Jesus Christ, El Nino...it's RGIlles!....

Added appropriate punctuation. I liked RGllles better when he had 29 posts.

**Da Manster!** · 09-23-14, 10:08 AM

Originally posted by El Nino

Added appropriate punctuation. I liked RGllles better when he had 29 posts.

It's SBR, bro...nothing on these boards should surprise you or anyone else anymore!...

**El Nino** · 09-23-14, 10:14 AM

Originally posted by Da Manster!

It's SBR, bro...nothing on these boards should surprise you or anyone else anymore!...

Step by step instructions on 58% winners and morons here still have no idea. Shocking.

**PhilTheTHRILL** · 09-23-14, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by RGIlles

Guys how do we know if the picks are on the moneyline or spread? The website only states the team.

Read the dang thread man. I spent 10 minutes typing out his actual picks on page 3..

You just cant fix stoopid sometimes.

**PhilTheTHRILL** · 09-23-14, 10:50 AM

we should get this thread off of sbr solely for the jynxing purposes of this damn site. I'd be happy to email everyone his picks who wants them... What do you guys think?

**triplecrown333** · 09-23-14, 12:18 PM

please delete thread lol...

**rattlemonkey** · 09-23-14, 12:27 PM

I want them!

**SEAHAWKHARRY** · 09-23-14, 12:32 PM

Me too!!!

**TwoWays** · 09-23-14, 12:35 PM

dont fckn' be so selfish and greedy. just post his picks same as so every week and let people follow or not. holy shnikies, geez!

**PhilTheTHRILL** · 09-23-14, 12:38 PM

Originally posted by TwoWays

dont fckn' be so selfish and greedy. just post his picks same as so every week and let people follow or not. holy shnikies, geez!

Lol

**RGIlles** · 09-23-14, 12:44 PM

Thanks for letting me know that I'm an idiot with barely 29 posts. You guys are very helpful. Now I know for sure if it's the moneyline or spread.
Thanks guys!

**El Nino** · 09-23-14, 12:46 PM

Morons who can't figure it out on their own should not benefit. The information has been laid out. Not everything should have to be spoon fed.

**POOLSIDE** · 09-23-14, 12:46 PM

Originally posted by RGIlles

Guys how do we know if the picks are on the moneyline or spread? The website only states the team.

I'm too lazy to do it, but this should be added to the "Dumbest post you've ever seen on SBR" thread asap. Unbelievable.

Yeah dude, he knew the Patriots would beat the Raiders straight up. We're in awe.

**PhilTheTHRILL** · 09-23-14, 12:49 PM

Originally posted by RGIlles

Thanks for letting me know that I'm an idiot with barely 29 posts. You guys are very helpful. Now I know for sure if it's the moneyline or spread.
Thanks guys!

Dude, I apologize for being a dikk. But seriously. this thread is only a couple pages.. would've took you 2 minutes to read through.. thats all we are saying. the fact that you only have 31 posts doesnt measure your intelligence does it?

**PhilTheTHRILL** · 09-23-14, 12:50 PM

Originally posted by TwoWays

dont fckn' be so selfish and greedy. just post his picks same as so every week and let people follow or not. holy shnikies, geez!

Nothing about being greedy or selfish.. at all.

**RGIlles** · 09-23-14, 12:50 PM

Yeah! I'm a moron!

**rattlemonkey** · 09-23-14, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by PhilTheTHRILL

Dude, I apologize for being a dikk. But seriously. this thread is only a couple pages.. would've took you 2 minutes to read through.. thats all we are saying. the fact that you only have 31 posts doesnt measure your intelligence does it?

I hope not, or I'm in trouble

**PhilTheTHRILL** · 09-23-14, 12:59 PM

Originally posted by rattlemonkey

I hope not, or I'm in trouble

lol. I'm sure this thread will continue. so I doubt we'll do the email thing.

If you even understand what Im saying. Doubt it cuz you only have 7 posts.

**rattlemonkey** · 09-23-14, 01:10 PM

duhhhh whaaaat? No clue what you're saying but I'm going to shotgun another Budweiser

**swordsandtequila** · 09-23-14, 01:58 PM

Some of you monkeys should have your computers confiscated, you're either too stupid or too lazy to deserve them. Why do you need anyone to post the picks? Go to the site, it's only been linked 47 times, read, make bets. Fuk, how hard could it be?

**mitch51** · 09-23-14, 02:03 PM

Originally posted by swordsandtequila

Some of you monkeys should have your computers confiscated, you're either too stupid or too lazy to deserve them. Why do you need anyone to post the picks? Go to the site, it's only been linked 47 times, read, make bets. Fuk, how hard could it be?

WHERE DO YOU GET HIS PICKS??? LOLOLOLOLOL! Just kidding.

**rattlemonkey** · 09-23-14, 02:07 PM

I'll be writing David's picks on a napkin and placing them under a rock somewhere in north America. I'll post the geolocation every Saturday for those interested.

**Ra77er** · 09-23-14, 02:13 PM

Now just for clarification purposes are these picks ml or spread?