Bet on louisville & pitt ats

[jmathes]

The most important aspect of betting on a trend is recognizing why that trend is so hot and knowing when to give it up. I have about 30-40 trends I have developed for various sports and have made a killing over the past few years. One trend I am riding through the NCAA tourney right now is betting on the #1 seed to cover the spread (ATS) against a #16 team. This is a trend that that is 6-2 over the 2007 and 2008 tourney and is doing very well this year at 2-0. Like I said before you have to ask yourself "Why is this happening?" To answer this question, I strongly believe that it is do to the evolution of the game and the athletes. If you go back and look at this statistic it isn't very favorable because the teams/athletes weren't too contrasting in the long run. With that being said if you look at the athleticism that the top teams have versus the lowest teams in the tournament then you will notice a huge difference. It is very hard for a #16 team to keep up with the speed and athletic talent of those #1 teams like North Carolina, UConn, Louisville, & Pittsburgh.

Wanna see more check out my blog. Oh yeah why not go for Gonzaga -13 tonight?

[Chi_archie]

I think you have the reasoning backwards..... the gap in athleticism that the top 4 teams have compared to the rest of the tourney is getting smaller every year.


There is a larger gene pool, more players begin playing at a younger age ect... there is just no way for just a handful of teams to get tall the blue chip recruits... plus their are a number of late bloomers that big schools don't look at that actually surpass the skill of their classmates, that go to smaller schools..... like Dwayne Wade to marquette.

now this hasn't affected the #1 and #16 seed because the gap between a number 1 team and number 50 team may be considerably smaller.... the gap between a #1 and a #200 ranked team has not changed much

the number 1 vs a number 16 seed is really like a top 5 team in the country vs a 150-225 ranked team in the country (being in the tourney does not make a top 64 team)

this is why you see alot of the #1 ranked teams get knocked off by unranked conference foes or large non conf. foes in the regular season, but we are still very far from seeing a 16 seed (read 200th ranked team) knock off a 1 seed..

[jmathes]

You are absolutely correct but the point I am trying to make is that the #1 seeds will cover the spread vs a #16 seed due to the overwhelming amount of athletic talent. It is a trend that I am betting on winning both games today and hopefully both tomorrow. If one of the two does not cover the spread tomorrow then I will be at 50% for the tourney. If one does win I will be at 75% and up a few hundred dollars. If you read my blog that relates to trends betting you will understand my point of view.

[jmathes]

Bet big on louisville & pitt today. Stay with the big east! You will thank me later

[spongerat]

pitt barely up, wow

[Chi_archie]

E. Tenn played with alot of heart today.... think this game would have been a good one not to bed on Jmathes.

out of all the #1 and #2 seeds who were the best two according to kenpom?
Cal st. Northridge #99
E tenn # 112

those two have covered coincidently... I think if you used this trend and only used #175 and above rated teams, it might work better...

for the record
Chattanooga #226
E. tenn # 112
Morhead # 151
Radford #184
Binghampton #165
Morgan St. 150
R. Morris #120

[BobHarvey]

Bet big on louisville & pitt today. Stay with the big east! You will thank me later

Thanks for Pitt.



I'll be with you on Louisville though.

[unde0087]

if you want to lose money