Best gambling proverb I've heard

**diogee** · 03-17-09, 05:06 AM

hmm...I suppose it could work but the more a team trends down the more the line gets adjusted by the books. At what point do the books overadjust and thus making the team that has been trending down the profitable team? Would be hard to catch at the right time imo. Take Boston as an example...they have not been covering over their last team. At what point do you jump off of the wagon since you obviously wouldn't have played it for at least the first 3 or 4 games (big part has been injuries), knowing that they aren't going to slump forever? Guess I don't really use recent ats a ton and imo in order to use it you need to know what the factors were causing the streak (key players being out for team losing ats or key players out on other teams of the team winning). Many would consider the Bulls a hot team for covering their last 6 at home but they have only covered 4 of their last 10 overall.

**diogee** · 03-17-09, 05:07 AM

I probably make 0 sense...rambling on again. A little sleep deprived.

**fearless** · 03-17-09, 05:20 AM

Originally posted by diogee

hmm...I suppose it could work but the more a team trends down the more the line gets adjusted by the books. At what point do the books overadjust and thus making the team that has been trending down the profitable team? Would be hard to catch at the right time imo. Take Boston as an example...they have not been covering over their last team. At what point do you jump off of the wagon since you obviously wouldn't have played it for at least the first 3 or 4 games (big part has been injuries), knowing that they aren't going to slump forever? Guess I don't really use recent ats a ton and imo in order to use it you need to know what the factors were causing the streak (key players being out for team losing ats or key players out on other teams of the team winning). Many would consider the Bulls a hot team for covering their last 6 at home but they have only covered 4 of their last 10 overall.

I remember that the guy was talking about recent play, like within just the last few games. I think that it can work out within a two game trend. Remember I called this one:

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I saw Utah's body language at the end of the Miami game and I knew they weren't gonna recover to win in Orlando the next night. That's a trend from just part of one game to the next. If Utah would have beaten the Heat they may have been in very high spirits and beaten Orlando too. If you're sensitive to these trends you can see them all the time, imho.

I have a strategy that I want to try for the MLB this coming season.

Take the worst teams in the MLB (Padres, for example) and when they start a losing streak, say two games, start betting against them every game. If they win the next game, you lost one unit, no big deal. But, if their losing streak gets up to four (two games before you started betting, two games after) then you're guaranteed a profit. Anything longer than a four game losing streak is money in the bank. Those bad teams can rack up big losing streaks.

You can't do that blindly and you must carefully cap their two next two games after they've lost two and be confident they're gonna lose both.

This is a totally new strategy that I may bail on or change (I could do this after one loss or even a win depending on the situation). Any thoughts on that?

**diogee** · 03-17-09, 05:33 AM

Yeah I had Orl in that one as well...was more than a play on the situation then anything for me. Overall it is a decent idea since you are betting on a team that has been playing decent ball as of late instead of a team that is reeling and nothing seems to be going right for them (low spirits, letting the losing get to them, too much stress, long road trip, etc). The key is catching the trend at the right time before it starts to regress the other way. I personally like trends in a certain situation since they can tell you how a team responds. I would be interested to see how this works out. The mlb one could be a solid idea as well since the bad teams can go on long losing streaks...the only problem is you could likely be laying -200ish every game against them so they would need to lose 2 more after you jump on board before you could ensure that you at least break even. I personally bet against streaks more than for them since as the streak gets longer the oddsmakers adjust with it giving the fade more value.

Good luck with this fearless...interested to see what other comments appear in this thread.

**reno cool** · 03-17-09, 07:44 AM

I would lean towards the opposite. Diogee is right. Teams that are perceived as hot get a lot of support, more than they deserve.