2009 MLB Preview: Baltimore Orioles
Destined for AL East cellar again, Orioles look towards future
Baltimore's future appears to be bright with several young arms and a stud catcher in Matt Wieters on the horizon. Then again, Peter Angelos is still running the franchise.
Following our preview on the Nationals yesterday, we take the short journey north out of the US capital to the city of Baltimore where we find things are not much better for the Orioles’ outlook in 2009. Then again, things could not get much worse that the current shape of the Washington franchise, though perhaps I should hold off on making a statement like that until we get through Pittsburgh.
Like their regional counterparts in DC, the Orioles got off to a fast but short-lived start to 2008 when they opened the year with a 6-1 record. They were even flirting with a possible .500 season as late as mid-August when they stood 61-63 after taking two of three from the Tigers in Detroit. But from there on the bottom really fell out.
Baltimore won just seven of their final 37 games, sporting a disastrous 5-20 mark in September that included a 10-game losing skid from Sep 17-26. You don’t have to look deeper into their season than seeing how they fared against the top three teams in their division: The Rays, Red Sox and Yankees.
Against those three stalwarts, each of which won 89 games or more, the O’s were a sickly 16-38. They won just three of 18 games against the Rays, eventual AL Champions, and went 6-21 combined on the road in Tampa, Boston and New York.
The bad news is all three of those squads are still in Baltimore’s divisions and the Orioles will have 54 games once again against them. The good news is they don’t have more than 54 games against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays this year.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
If you’re the type of person who wants the bad news first, skip this part and go straight to the section on pitching.
Baltimore sported an offense that could’ve supported a .500 team as their record in mid-August seemed to point towards. The Orioles finished eighth in the AL in runs scored with 782 plate crossings. That was eight more runs than the Rays scored and 17 more than the Angels, both playoff teams. The lineup featured a pair of 100 RBI bats (Melvin More and Aubrey Huff), two players that scored 100+ runs (Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts), a 40-SB pair of legs (Roberts) and five players hit at least 20 home runs, a quintet that was led by Huff’s 32.
During the offseason the Orioles added a little more depth to their offense/defense and have a young stud on the near horizon who could take this group to the next level. In fact, let’s start with that young stud.
Matt Wieters was the fifth overall selection in the 2007 draft out of Georgia Tech and did everything he could in his first professional season last year to support Baltimore taking him that high…even if his agent is Scott Boras. Splitting his time at Single-A Frederick and Double-A Bowie, Wieters cracked 27 homers, drove in 91 runs and batted .355 with a 1.054 OPS in 130 games.
It looked like he would make the jump to the majors this year when Baltimore let catcher Ramon Hernandez go during the winter. But the Orioles’ front office did a smart thing – Words we haven’t really heard in Baltimore for a while now – when GM Andy MacPhail went out and brought Gregg Zaun in during to take over primary catching duties at least to begin this season. That will allow the O’s to give Wieters a taste of Triple-A to open the year, and once he does arrive, possibly as early as June, he’ll have Zaun on the bench to mentor him a bit.
Three-quarters of the infield from a year ago returns with Huff at first, Roberts at second and Mora at third. The newcomer on the dirt is shortstop Cesar Izturis. Rumors floated around during the winter that Baltimore was shopping Roberts, but those rumors never came to fruition. If it does happen this season, look for Scott Moore to take over at second base.
Additional infield backups include multi-position players Chris Gomez, Ryan Freel and Ty Wiggington who will also get some DH duty in along the way.
The three primary outfielders also return with Markakis in right, Adam Jones in center and Luke Scott probably spending more time at DH than in left where he was for 100 starts in 2008. The shift of Scott to DH was made when the club landed Felix Pie from the Cubs in a January trade. Pie and Scott should be the LF-DH duo against righthanders, with Freel and Wiggington in the two slots vs. lefties.
PITCHING
As long as the Texas Rangers are in the AL, it’s quite possible no other team will have to worry about finishing as the worst pitching staff in the Junior Circuit. The 2008 Orioles did however try to unseat the Rangers for the dishonor.
Baltimore ranked 13th in the AL with a 5.15 ERA and 10th in hits allowed (1,538). They were dead last in homers served up (184), walks issued (687) and strikeouts recorded (922). Orioles and Rangers fans will be quick to point out that both clubs play their home games in parks that favor hitters. They can spin it any way they want, but both staffs were still god awful.
The one bright spot in the rotation for Baltimore last year was Jeremy Guthrie who went 10-12 with a 3.63 ERA, with the O’s going 14-16 in his 30 starts. That was on the heels of a 3.70 ERA over 26 starts and six relief appearances so it’s obvious he can pitch at the major league level. But it’s also pretty obvious that he should not be the ace of a staff.
If the season started tomorrow, the rest of the rotation behind Guthrie would probably sort out with righthanders Koji Uehara, Matt Albers and Danys Baez, plus lefty Rich Hill. There’s still time for that list to change, starting with Hill who is battling a sore elbow at this time.
Uehara is over on a two-year deal from Japan and could be an interesting pitcher to follow on the moneyline early in the season before all teams have had a good look at his array of pitches. Albers pitched well in relief and in a few starting assignments before a torn labrum ended his 2008 campaign. Baez is making the move back to the rotation after pitching exclusively out of the pen for the Indians, Rays, Dodgers, Braves and Orioles from 2003-07, and missing all of ’08 with Tommy John surgery.
Southpaw Mark Hendrickson has been slowed this spring with a balky back, and could figure into the starting mix at some point. As it stands now, manager Dave Trembley is leaning more towards Hendrickson being his long arm out of the pen.
Three others trying to push their way into the rotation are Hayden Penn, Adam Eaton and Radhames Liz. Eaton might make it, though he’s still not up to speed coming off injury. Out of options now, Penn appears destined for a middle relief role while Liz – 51 walks and 16 homers in 84.1 IP – will likely make his address in Norfolk, VA, as part of the Triple-A Tides.
On the horizon are young hurlers Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman. Don’t look for Matusz and Arrieta this season, though Tillman could be called up.
The bullpen will open with George Sherrill as the closer and Chris Ray as the primary setup arm. Sherrill saved 31 for the O’s in 2008, and really just had the one bad stretch from mid-June to mid-July when he coughed up four of his six blown saves on the season. A bad streak like that this season, assuming Ray is fully healthy, will likely cost Sherrill the job and move Ray back into the 9th-inning role.
Additional setup and middle relief chores will go to righthander Jim Johnson and lefthander Jamie Walker. Another lefty who could make this group is Alberto Castillo.
SCHEDULE
The Orioles have an even slate for the campaign, though that will not help them much. The get the Angels and Rangers at Camden for an extra series each, but travel for an extra road series to the Mariners and White Sox.
Baltimore was one of the worst overall teams through my five simulations, no surprise there. Playing 72 games in arguably the toughest division in baseball would be tough on a team with a deep roster, much less a team with question marks all over the field. The O’s average 68.8 wins in the five simulations, winning 75 for a high in one run and 64 for the low.
I like Baltimore in the 68-70 win range, and that makes the Under (-130) look good at The Greek where the break is 73½ (Over +110). The Greek also lists both the Blue Jays and Orioles at +1215 to win the AL East.
Over at 5Dimes, current betting odds show Baltimore +9000 to win the American League Pennant and +15000 to win the World Series.
Baltimore's future appears to be bright with several young arms and a stud catcher in Matt Wieters on the horizon. Then again, Peter Angelos is still running the franchise.
Following our preview on the Nationals yesterday, we take the short journey north out of the US capital to the city of Baltimore where we find things are not much better for the Orioles’ outlook in 2009. Then again, things could not get much worse that the current shape of the Washington franchise, though perhaps I should hold off on making a statement like that until we get through Pittsburgh.
Like their regional counterparts in DC, the Orioles got off to a fast but short-lived start to 2008 when they opened the year with a 6-1 record. They were even flirting with a possible .500 season as late as mid-August when they stood 61-63 after taking two of three from the Tigers in Detroit. But from there on the bottom really fell out.
Baltimore won just seven of their final 37 games, sporting a disastrous 5-20 mark in September that included a 10-game losing skid from Sep 17-26. You don’t have to look deeper into their season than seeing how they fared against the top three teams in their division: The Rays, Red Sox and Yankees.
Against those three stalwarts, each of which won 89 games or more, the O’s were a sickly 16-38. They won just three of 18 games against the Rays, eventual AL Champions, and went 6-21 combined on the road in Tampa, Boston and New York.
The bad news is all three of those squads are still in Baltimore’s divisions and the Orioles will have 54 games once again against them. The good news is they don’t have more than 54 games against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays this year.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
If you’re the type of person who wants the bad news first, skip this part and go straight to the section on pitching.
Baltimore sported an offense that could’ve supported a .500 team as their record in mid-August seemed to point towards. The Orioles finished eighth in the AL in runs scored with 782 plate crossings. That was eight more runs than the Rays scored and 17 more than the Angels, both playoff teams. The lineup featured a pair of 100 RBI bats (Melvin More and Aubrey Huff), two players that scored 100+ runs (Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts), a 40-SB pair of legs (Roberts) and five players hit at least 20 home runs, a quintet that was led by Huff’s 32.
During the offseason the Orioles added a little more depth to their offense/defense and have a young stud on the near horizon who could take this group to the next level. In fact, let’s start with that young stud.
Matt Wieters was the fifth overall selection in the 2007 draft out of Georgia Tech and did everything he could in his first professional season last year to support Baltimore taking him that high…even if his agent is Scott Boras. Splitting his time at Single-A Frederick and Double-A Bowie, Wieters cracked 27 homers, drove in 91 runs and batted .355 with a 1.054 OPS in 130 games.
It looked like he would make the jump to the majors this year when Baltimore let catcher Ramon Hernandez go during the winter. But the Orioles’ front office did a smart thing – Words we haven’t really heard in Baltimore for a while now – when GM Andy MacPhail went out and brought Gregg Zaun in during to take over primary catching duties at least to begin this season. That will allow the O’s to give Wieters a taste of Triple-A to open the year, and once he does arrive, possibly as early as June, he’ll have Zaun on the bench to mentor him a bit.
Three-quarters of the infield from a year ago returns with Huff at first, Roberts at second and Mora at third. The newcomer on the dirt is shortstop Cesar Izturis. Rumors floated around during the winter that Baltimore was shopping Roberts, but those rumors never came to fruition. If it does happen this season, look for Scott Moore to take over at second base.
Additional infield backups include multi-position players Chris Gomez, Ryan Freel and Ty Wiggington who will also get some DH duty in along the way.
The three primary outfielders also return with Markakis in right, Adam Jones in center and Luke Scott probably spending more time at DH than in left where he was for 100 starts in 2008. The shift of Scott to DH was made when the club landed Felix Pie from the Cubs in a January trade. Pie and Scott should be the LF-DH duo against righthanders, with Freel and Wiggington in the two slots vs. lefties.
PITCHING
As long as the Texas Rangers are in the AL, it’s quite possible no other team will have to worry about finishing as the worst pitching staff in the Junior Circuit. The 2008 Orioles did however try to unseat the Rangers for the dishonor.
Baltimore ranked 13th in the AL with a 5.15 ERA and 10th in hits allowed (1,538). They were dead last in homers served up (184), walks issued (687) and strikeouts recorded (922). Orioles and Rangers fans will be quick to point out that both clubs play their home games in parks that favor hitters. They can spin it any way they want, but both staffs were still god awful.
The one bright spot in the rotation for Baltimore last year was Jeremy Guthrie who went 10-12 with a 3.63 ERA, with the O’s going 14-16 in his 30 starts. That was on the heels of a 3.70 ERA over 26 starts and six relief appearances so it’s obvious he can pitch at the major league level. But it’s also pretty obvious that he should not be the ace of a staff.
If the season started tomorrow, the rest of the rotation behind Guthrie would probably sort out with righthanders Koji Uehara, Matt Albers and Danys Baez, plus lefty Rich Hill. There’s still time for that list to change, starting with Hill who is battling a sore elbow at this time.
Uehara is over on a two-year deal from Japan and could be an interesting pitcher to follow on the moneyline early in the season before all teams have had a good look at his array of pitches. Albers pitched well in relief and in a few starting assignments before a torn labrum ended his 2008 campaign. Baez is making the move back to the rotation after pitching exclusively out of the pen for the Indians, Rays, Dodgers, Braves and Orioles from 2003-07, and missing all of ’08 with Tommy John surgery.
Southpaw Mark Hendrickson has been slowed this spring with a balky back, and could figure into the starting mix at some point. As it stands now, manager Dave Trembley is leaning more towards Hendrickson being his long arm out of the pen.
Three others trying to push their way into the rotation are Hayden Penn, Adam Eaton and Radhames Liz. Eaton might make it, though he’s still not up to speed coming off injury. Out of options now, Penn appears destined for a middle relief role while Liz – 51 walks and 16 homers in 84.1 IP – will likely make his address in Norfolk, VA, as part of the Triple-A Tides.
On the horizon are young hurlers Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman. Don’t look for Matusz and Arrieta this season, though Tillman could be called up.
The bullpen will open with George Sherrill as the closer and Chris Ray as the primary setup arm. Sherrill saved 31 for the O’s in 2008, and really just had the one bad stretch from mid-June to mid-July when he coughed up four of his six blown saves on the season. A bad streak like that this season, assuming Ray is fully healthy, will likely cost Sherrill the job and move Ray back into the 9th-inning role.
Additional setup and middle relief chores will go to righthander Jim Johnson and lefthander Jamie Walker. Another lefty who could make this group is Alberto Castillo.
SCHEDULE
The Orioles have an even slate for the campaign, though that will not help them much. The get the Angels and Rangers at Camden for an extra series each, but travel for an extra road series to the Mariners and White Sox.
- 22-22 (Home-Away) through May
- 66-66 (Home-Away) through August
- 7-3 (Home-Away) vs. Rangers; 6-4 vs. Angels
- 3-6 (Home-Away) vs. Mariners; 3-6 vs. White Sox
Baltimore was one of the worst overall teams through my five simulations, no surprise there. Playing 72 games in arguably the toughest division in baseball would be tough on a team with a deep roster, much less a team with question marks all over the field. The O’s average 68.8 wins in the five simulations, winning 75 for a high in one run and 64 for the low.
I like Baltimore in the 68-70 win range, and that makes the Under (-130) look good at The Greek where the break is 73½ (Over +110). The Greek also lists both the Blue Jays and Orioles at +1215 to win the AL East.
Over at 5Dimes, current betting odds show Baltimore +9000 to win the American League Pennant and +15000 to win the World Series.