2009 MLB Preview: Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners can't help but be a better team in 2009
No team defied my 2008 projections more than the Seattle Mariners who went from possible preseason contenders to plain old pretenders on their way to 101 losses.
Nobody likes to be embarrassed, even if it’s just a little bit. The Seattle Mariners embarrassed the hell out of me in 2008.
My projections were way off for several clubs, 23 too many wins forecast for the Padres and 23 too few for the Rays. But the Mariners were the worst, missing them by 27+ when Seattle came home with a major league low 61 wins after they averaged more than 88 in my simulations. Compounding the embarrassment was the money lost on the futures that I purchased.
The writing was on the wall for everyone to see in the very first week of the season. After opening with a series win at home against Texas, a series in which they saw their closer J.J. Putz go down with a rib injury, the Mariners took off across the Lower 48 to meet the Orioles for four games in Baltimore. They were 2-1 entering the series, and 2-5 when they left town, the O’s sweep exposing a thin bullpen among other things. Adding insult to injury is George Sherrill, one of the players Seattle sent to Baltimore to land Erik Bedard, saved three of the games on his way to an All-Star season and 31 saves.
Though Seattle bounced back from that series to go 11-10 the rest of April, the season was over for all intents and purposes. An 8-20 month of May slammed the lid on their coffin. By mid-June, manager John McLaren was gone with Jim Riggleman taking over in the interim and Don Wakamatsu brought in for this season.
Wakamatsu and his staff have their work cut out for them. Never mind getting past the Angels who have dominated the AL West for years. Their first job will just be to rebuild some confidence in a team that finished near the bottom of the AL in almost every meaningful statistical column, starting with that 101 in the loss column.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
So how do you start to rebuild an offense that ranked 13th in the AL in runs scored (671), 13th in both on-base and slugging and 12th in homers (124)? According to the Mariners, you don’t re-sign your best run producer.
Ok, I don’t really disagree with Seattle’s decision not to bring back Raul Ibañez despite his RBI proficiency the past few years. He turns 37 and the Mariners were not going to give him the 3-year, $30 million-plus that the Phillies offered. But they are also going to have to find that run production somehow, somewhere with what they have left.
What they have left is a cast that’s rough around the edges. The big news during the winter was signing Ken Griffey Jr to return to the Mariners for presumably his final season. Junior will sell some tickets, but he’s not going to replace Ibañez in the field or at the plate. Franklin Gutierrez could replace some of the missing offense assuming he can handle the everyday duties in center. And Ichiro Suzuki will provide his usual 200 hits at the top of the order.
The addition of Griffey does help to make the outfield deeper, pushing Endy Chavez to the bench. Chavez will also be seeing a lot of late inning work in left in replacement of Griffey. I look for Mike Morse to land the fifth and final OF slot.
If Griffey just shifts Chavez to the bench, that won’t be bad; if he costs Jeff Clement to the bench, that will be a bad thing. Clement needs to take his licks at the plate day in, day out this season in order to develop. If he catches when Wakamatsu wants to give Kenji Johjima a day off and Griffey serves as DH those days, again not a bad thing. But the signing of Griffey cannot cost Clement any ABs or Seattle will be screwing up in the long run.
Three-quarters of the infield from last year’s Opening Day will be back. Adrian Beltre returns at third with Yuniesky Betancourt at short and Jose Lopez at second. Lopez and Beltre should be fine, but Betancourt is going to have to start to come to the party if he’s ever going to realize any of his potential.
Over at first, Seattle signed Russell Branyan in the offseason to take over, and with Chris Shelton behind him, the M’s should be better off than they’ve been in recent seasons with Richie Sexson at the infield corner.
Ronny Cedeño and Chris Woodward look to be the primary infield reserves for now. Matt Tuiasosopo might also be in the mix, though Seattle is more likely to want him to get everyday action in down at Triple-A.
PITCHING
Assuming good health, the Mariners’ starting rotation should be much better this year than last. They could hardly be worse off.
Felix Hernandez could’ve won 16 games if not for a lack of run support. The only starter to make at least 30 assignments and top the 200 inning mark, King Felix posted a 3.45 ERA and finished seventh in the AL with 175 Ks. The trouble is he might not get much more run support this year.
The key to this staff will be Erik Bedard who could only managed 15 starts after his much ballyhooed acquisition from Baltimore. Both he and fellow lefty Jarrod Washburn have looked good this spring, and that’s a good sign for the Mariners.
Carlos Silva reported to camp in great shape according to reports at the team’s MLB.com website. He and Washburn combined to go 9-29 – Seattle was 16-28 in their starts – with an ERA over 5.50 last season. Your No. 3 and No. 4 starters don’t have to have Cy Young seasons to be competitive, but they’ve got to do better than that.
The fifth slot in the rotation is a battle between right-hander Brandon Morrow and lefties Ryan Rowland-Smith and Garrett Olson. All three are off to rough starts this spring, so it remains to be seen. If they all finish with equal stats, even if they are equally bad, Morrow probably gets the nod. He started five games last September after spending the 2007-08 seasons in the pen up to that point, and had mixed results. But he’s just three springs removed from the Cal campus, and has plenty of time to justify being the fifth overall pick in 2006.
The bullpen is a complete mystery right now. As things stand, Miguel Batista will open as the closer, something the 28-year-old Dominican has some experience at with a 31-save season for the Blue Jays in 2005. But sheesh! I just don’t see him sticking with any success over the course of the entire season.
If, er, I mean, when the Batista trial runs out, look for Mark Lowe to take the reins. For the time being, Lowe and Corcoran, along with David Aardsma and Tyler Walker, figure to get the most 7th- and 8th-inning work bridging the starters to Batista. With Tyler Johnson presently sidelined as he comes back from shoulder surgery, the lone lefty in the pen to start the year could be a battle between Cesar Jimenez and Justin Thomas, with my money on Jimenez.
SCHEDULE
As far as team-vs-team slates go, the Mariners have one of most uneven schedules of any team in the American League. The good news is the extra series they will play against AL East squads are in Seattle, and the extra road trips are against AL Central teams meaning a little less travel than had it been the other way.
If I’m 27+ wins too high on the Mariners this year, we’re about to see one of the worst teams to ever take a major league field. Seattle averaged 75 wins through the course of five simulations, hitting a high of 79 and a low of 71. I like the 75 mark, but after the beating they gave me last year, I still at this time can’t bring myself to bet over the 72½ break (Over -125, Under +105) that The Greek has posted.
Over at 5dimes, the betting odds on the Mariners include +1200 to win their division, +6000 to win the AL Pennant and +12500 to go all the way.
No team defied my 2008 projections more than the Seattle Mariners who went from possible preseason contenders to plain old pretenders on their way to 101 losses.
Nobody likes to be embarrassed, even if it’s just a little bit. The Seattle Mariners embarrassed the hell out of me in 2008.
My projections were way off for several clubs, 23 too many wins forecast for the Padres and 23 too few for the Rays. But the Mariners were the worst, missing them by 27+ when Seattle came home with a major league low 61 wins after they averaged more than 88 in my simulations. Compounding the embarrassment was the money lost on the futures that I purchased.
The writing was on the wall for everyone to see in the very first week of the season. After opening with a series win at home against Texas, a series in which they saw their closer J.J. Putz go down with a rib injury, the Mariners took off across the Lower 48 to meet the Orioles for four games in Baltimore. They were 2-1 entering the series, and 2-5 when they left town, the O’s sweep exposing a thin bullpen among other things. Adding insult to injury is George Sherrill, one of the players Seattle sent to Baltimore to land Erik Bedard, saved three of the games on his way to an All-Star season and 31 saves.
Though Seattle bounced back from that series to go 11-10 the rest of April, the season was over for all intents and purposes. An 8-20 month of May slammed the lid on their coffin. By mid-June, manager John McLaren was gone with Jim Riggleman taking over in the interim and Don Wakamatsu brought in for this season.
Wakamatsu and his staff have their work cut out for them. Never mind getting past the Angels who have dominated the AL West for years. Their first job will just be to rebuild some confidence in a team that finished near the bottom of the AL in almost every meaningful statistical column, starting with that 101 in the loss column.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
So how do you start to rebuild an offense that ranked 13th in the AL in runs scored (671), 13th in both on-base and slugging and 12th in homers (124)? According to the Mariners, you don’t re-sign your best run producer.
Ok, I don’t really disagree with Seattle’s decision not to bring back Raul Ibañez despite his RBI proficiency the past few years. He turns 37 and the Mariners were not going to give him the 3-year, $30 million-plus that the Phillies offered. But they are also going to have to find that run production somehow, somewhere with what they have left.
What they have left is a cast that’s rough around the edges. The big news during the winter was signing Ken Griffey Jr to return to the Mariners for presumably his final season. Junior will sell some tickets, but he’s not going to replace Ibañez in the field or at the plate. Franklin Gutierrez could replace some of the missing offense assuming he can handle the everyday duties in center. And Ichiro Suzuki will provide his usual 200 hits at the top of the order.
The addition of Griffey does help to make the outfield deeper, pushing Endy Chavez to the bench. Chavez will also be seeing a lot of late inning work in left in replacement of Griffey. I look for Mike Morse to land the fifth and final OF slot.
If Griffey just shifts Chavez to the bench, that won’t be bad; if he costs Jeff Clement to the bench, that will be a bad thing. Clement needs to take his licks at the plate day in, day out this season in order to develop. If he catches when Wakamatsu wants to give Kenji Johjima a day off and Griffey serves as DH those days, again not a bad thing. But the signing of Griffey cannot cost Clement any ABs or Seattle will be screwing up in the long run.
Three-quarters of the infield from last year’s Opening Day will be back. Adrian Beltre returns at third with Yuniesky Betancourt at short and Jose Lopez at second. Lopez and Beltre should be fine, but Betancourt is going to have to start to come to the party if he’s ever going to realize any of his potential.
Over at first, Seattle signed Russell Branyan in the offseason to take over, and with Chris Shelton behind him, the M’s should be better off than they’ve been in recent seasons with Richie Sexson at the infield corner.
Ronny Cedeño and Chris Woodward look to be the primary infield reserves for now. Matt Tuiasosopo might also be in the mix, though Seattle is more likely to want him to get everyday action in down at Triple-A.
PITCHING
Assuming good health, the Mariners’ starting rotation should be much better this year than last. They could hardly be worse off.
Felix Hernandez could’ve won 16 games if not for a lack of run support. The only starter to make at least 30 assignments and top the 200 inning mark, King Felix posted a 3.45 ERA and finished seventh in the AL with 175 Ks. The trouble is he might not get much more run support this year.
The key to this staff will be Erik Bedard who could only managed 15 starts after his much ballyhooed acquisition from Baltimore. Both he and fellow lefty Jarrod Washburn have looked good this spring, and that’s a good sign for the Mariners.
Carlos Silva reported to camp in great shape according to reports at the team’s MLB.com website. He and Washburn combined to go 9-29 – Seattle was 16-28 in their starts – with an ERA over 5.50 last season. Your No. 3 and No. 4 starters don’t have to have Cy Young seasons to be competitive, but they’ve got to do better than that.
The fifth slot in the rotation is a battle between right-hander Brandon Morrow and lefties Ryan Rowland-Smith and Garrett Olson. All three are off to rough starts this spring, so it remains to be seen. If they all finish with equal stats, even if they are equally bad, Morrow probably gets the nod. He started five games last September after spending the 2007-08 seasons in the pen up to that point, and had mixed results. But he’s just three springs removed from the Cal campus, and has plenty of time to justify being the fifth overall pick in 2006.
The bullpen is a complete mystery right now. As things stand, Miguel Batista will open as the closer, something the 28-year-old Dominican has some experience at with a 31-save season for the Blue Jays in 2005. But sheesh! I just don’t see him sticking with any success over the course of the entire season.
If, er, I mean, when the Batista trial runs out, look for Mark Lowe to take the reins. For the time being, Lowe and Corcoran, along with David Aardsma and Tyler Walker, figure to get the most 7th- and 8th-inning work bridging the starters to Batista. With Tyler Johnson presently sidelined as he comes back from shoulder surgery, the lone lefty in the pen to start the year could be a battle between Cesar Jimenez and Justin Thomas, with my money on Jimenez.
SCHEDULE
As far as team-vs-team slates go, the Mariners have one of most uneven schedules of any team in the American League. The good news is the extra series they will play against AL East squads are in Seattle, and the extra road trips are against AL Central teams meaning a little less travel than had it been the other way.
- On road for first seven, followed by a 9-game homestand
- Seven of first of 1st 32 games at Minnesota
- Only three home games vs. Angels after May 21
- 24-27 (Home-Away) through May; 67-65 through August
- Will play the Padres six times before they face the Yankees, Indians or Blue jays
- 6-3 (Home-Away) vs. Orioles, 7-3 vs Yankees, 6-2 vs. Rays, 6-3 vs. White Sox, 3-7 vs. Indians, 3-6 vs. Tigers, 3-7 vs. Twins
If I’m 27+ wins too high on the Mariners this year, we’re about to see one of the worst teams to ever take a major league field. Seattle averaged 75 wins through the course of five simulations, hitting a high of 79 and a low of 71. I like the 75 mark, but after the beating they gave me last year, I still at this time can’t bring myself to bet over the 72½ break (Over -125, Under +105) that The Greek has posted.
Over at 5dimes, the betting odds on the Mariners include +1200 to win their division, +6000 to win the AL Pennant and +12500 to go all the way.