Can anyone eplain the relevance? of line moves : Nominated Post

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  • DwightShrute
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-17-09
    • 102382

    #1
    Can anyone eplain the relevance? of line moves : Nominated Post
    Originally <a href='https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=31235175'>posted</a> on 10/03/2023:

    Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
    Dwight, that's great stuff. One game comes to mind when you mention small books at risk of going bust.

    Go back to the first Brady Super Bowl. The Patriots are +14 vs the Rams. Moneyline = +500.

    Here's the story I heard. Boston local bookies were sided to the moon with Patriot moneyline bets. Makes sense, that's the local team.

    Bookies figure it's like Xmas. Write the +500 tickets. Expect the Big Fav to win outright, payday for the locals.

    Well, they didn't manage their risk at all. Let's say a local writes $10,000 in action. Let's say it's an 80/20 Moneyline split toward the Patriots.

    If Rams (and I'll give them -500 price) win:
    *The $2000 pays out $400.
    *The Patriot bets are profit. $8000.
    ...Net = +$7600.

    What if the Patriots somehow win?
    *The $2000 pays out nothing.
    *Patriot bets of $8000 pay out $40,000!!
    ...Net = -$38,000.

    Here's the story I heard. The Boston locals couldn't get the scratch to pay out 5/1. They tried to settle at 2/1...just so they could pay out.

    LOL. Imagine if that's even close to true. Really no different than Wall Street:
    *If we win, it's b/c we're brilliant.
    *If we lose, we can write it off and get bailed out in the next tax bill.
    There are a million stories over there years I am sure and many more to come.

    I worked at a book once where I would spend a good chuck of my day making excuses as to why the money hasn't been paid to the player yet. Anywhere from she's in the basement looking into it to all sorts of stupid excuses I can't even remember them all anymore. That was my first experience with an online book back in 2003. Having nothing to comparing it to, and since it was rather early on in the offshore sports betting era, I assumed all these shop were dirt bags. I was having a beer at a pub close by the office when I was someone from the office and we drank a few together. Not long after, 2 big dudes come into the bar and physically removed her from the bar. The next day I was told no socializing with co workers! WTF? Needless to say, I didn't work there long.

    Not long after, I helped out an affiliate manager at another book for a few days and met the bosses. They hired me and they were night and day compared to the other place. They paid their players fast. The players trusted them and that created loyalty. They hired good people and treated them well.

    When Bush Jr. passed the law in 2006, the offshore industry never was the same. The good books grew but the profit margins shrunk big time. Neteller, fierpay and c redit crads were gone for the most part. Mnoeygran and Werstern Uonion were great but then they started to limit and blacklist players. Chargebacks and higher deposit/payout fees were a real thing. Then the shitty books started up by promising these huge bonuses hoping the players would keep losing. When the players won, then getting paid became a struggle.
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