Originally <a href='https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=31232774'>posted</a> on 09/27/2023:
Can't say I blame you. GL this weekend.
One thing on what you write above:
*HFA in NFL is way down.
Home Field has mattered very little YTD. See the Sagarin ratings:
The calculation I did on my own says HFA = 1.70.
...I don't think Current HFA is close to 3.00.
...Also, HFA early in the season is less important. See my note about the late-season Cold/Warm situations.
So, Buff -2.5 doesn't necessarily mean the market is viewing the Dolphins as the better team.
Von Miller is still out for BUFF. To me, it's all about Miami's speed. Has the # adjusted too much based on the Dolphin's early-season success?
JMO, I won't be betting this game. Looks too tough for me.
*HFA in NFL is way down.
Home Field has mattered very little YTD. See the Sagarin ratings:
The calculation I did on my own says HFA = 1.70.
...I don't think Current HFA is close to 3.00.
...Also, HFA early in the season is less important. See my note about the late-season Cold/Warm situations.
So, Buff -2.5 doesn't necessarily mean the market is viewing the Dolphins as the better team.
Von Miller is still out for BUFF. To me, it's all about Miami's speed. Has the # adjusted too much based on the Dolphin's early-season success?
JMO, I won't be betting this game. Looks too tough for me.
Can't say I blame you. GL this weekend.