Question for the forum regarding Superbowl line : Nominated Post

[KVB]

Originally <a href='https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=31129434'>posted</a> on 02/06/2023:

...When you put it together, considering Team Total push rates, the difference in team Totals may not be as much as it seems. There's a sweet spot here between 24 and 27 team total points that allows for a lot of wiggle room between 24.5 and 26.5.

Enough wiggle room, in fact, to give the full game underdog more Teat Total points than the Favorite, with the proper pricing.

Again, and it's worth repeating, at these numbers, expect the KC UNDER 26.5 (-132) to grow in price and the Philly OVER 24.5 (-122) to grow as well. By the prices moving so, these team totals become much closer than the actual score number indicates...

We're seeing the KC UNDER 26.5 at -137 and the Philly OVER 24.5 up to -125, as expected.

We're getting closer and closer to he proper conversion, which I said above was closer than it may seem to begin with.

While it is in a period of evolution with the extension of the extra point and increased frequency of 2 point conversions, it is still true that not very many teams land on a Team Total of 26, and less than half of that will land on 25. Hence the wiggle room offered.

Now we have KC UNDER 26.5 at -140 and Philly OVER 24.5 up to -135, again as expected and much closer to the proper conversion.

The Total as blinked as well and moved from 49.5 to 50.5, a little more in line with the Team Total expectations. The spread is still -1, but there is some pressure on the Philly side.