Originally <a href='https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=31125163'>posted</a> on 01/30/2023:
Great stuff. Thanks for delving in kvb.
Yesterday
Cincinnati TT 23.5-121 over/ under-107 or so
KC TT over 22.5-157/162 range/ under +127
KC hit exactly 23. Bengals had a shot to do the same.
Pinnacle does this stuff all season long on games. Cleary they knew that the chiefs were going to be tough sledding to get 23 but would probably hit it as the juice indicated. Some people called it stopping action I guess. They certainly didn't put up 23.5 on KC as that would lend to a win on the under at close to plus money or low juice. They gambled hoping that the -157 would lose.
Not true. You are talking about Team Totals in the context of the full game spread. If you didn't have the full game spread in front of you, you wouldn't even be asking the question.
I suspect the prices on the KC UNDER 26.5 and the Philly OVER 24.5 will increase even more than they are now.
It's a conversion issue here and I am not going to give up my team Total push rates to answer this basic question.
What I will say is that yes, these markets are separate markets and will operate independently. Of all the football games, it is with the SuperBowl that we see lines and prices move from where they are equal to each other. For example, in this game Philly backers are far more likely to take the -2 spread while KC backers will choose the moneyline. This can lead to a shorter upset moneyline odds relative to the increasing spread.
For most games, they prices will be more equivalent, but not with the SuperBowl.
When it comes to team Totals, like I said, I would expect the KC UNDER 26.5 to grow in price while the Philly OVER 24.5 grows as well.
Notice the Full Game Total is 49.5 (-106/-106). But these team totals add up to 51 (not considering the pricing).
But, we need to consider the pricing, which helps lend to the answer to your question.
Just how different is UNDER 26.5 (-132) and OVER 24.5 (-122) when it comes to the math? What if the UNDER 26.5 went to -135 and the OVER 24.5 went to -125?
While the point spread might be 2, with Pinny pricing towards the dog (-110 or so) notice the Pinny moneyline is showing a no vig price of just -115. (That's the current Philly -121/KC +110).
When you put it together, considering Team Total push rates, the difference in team Totals may not be as much as it seems. There's a sweet spot here between 24 and 27 team total points that allows for a lot of wiggle room between 24.5 and 26.5.
Enough wiggle room, in fact, to give the full game underdog more Teat Total points than the Favorite, with the proper pricing.
Again, and it's worth repeating, at these numbers, expect the KC UNDER 26.5 (-132) to grow in price and the Philly OVER 24.5 (-122) to grow as well. By the prices moving so, these team totals become much closer than the actual score number indicates.
I suspect the prices on the KC UNDER 26.5 and the Philly OVER 24.5 will increase even more than they are now.
It's a conversion issue here and I am not going to give up my team Total push rates to answer this basic question.
What I will say is that yes, these markets are separate markets and will operate independently. Of all the football games, it is with the SuperBowl that we see lines and prices move from where they are equal to each other. For example, in this game Philly backers are far more likely to take the -2 spread while KC backers will choose the moneyline. This can lead to a shorter upset moneyline odds relative to the increasing spread.
For most games, they prices will be more equivalent, but not with the SuperBowl.
When it comes to team Totals, like I said, I would expect the KC UNDER 26.5 to grow in price while the Philly OVER 24.5 grows as well.
Notice the Full Game Total is 49.5 (-106/-106). But these team totals add up to 51 (not considering the pricing).
But, we need to consider the pricing, which helps lend to the answer to your question.
Just how different is UNDER 26.5 (-132) and OVER 24.5 (-122) when it comes to the math? What if the UNDER 26.5 went to -135 and the OVER 24.5 went to -125?
While the point spread might be 2, with Pinny pricing towards the dog (-110 or so) notice the Pinny moneyline is showing a no vig price of just -115. (That's the current Philly -121/KC +110).
When you put it together, considering Team Total push rates, the difference in team Totals may not be as much as it seems. There's a sweet spot here between 24 and 27 team total points that allows for a lot of wiggle room between 24.5 and 26.5.
Enough wiggle room, in fact, to give the full game underdog more Teat Total points than the Favorite, with the proper pricing.
Again, and it's worth repeating, at these numbers, expect the KC UNDER 26.5 (-132) to grow in price and the Philly OVER 24.5 (-122) to grow as well. By the prices moving so, these team totals become much closer than the actual score number indicates.
Yesterday
Cincinnati TT 23.5-121 over/ under-107 or so
KC TT over 22.5-157/162 range/ under +127
KC hit exactly 23. Bengals had a shot to do the same.
Pinnacle does this stuff all season long on games. Cleary they knew that the chiefs were going to be tough sledding to get 23 but would probably hit it as the juice indicated. Some people called it stopping action I guess. They certainly didn't put up 23.5 on KC as that would lend to a win on the under at close to plus money or low juice. They gambled hoping that the -157 would lose.