Handicapper vs screen watcher : Nominated Post

[d2bets]

Originally <a href='https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=31115832'>posted</a> on 01/20/2023:

Exactly. Unless you're actually accounting for it's impact on the line it just becomes extra, subjectively used info. Trends may go one way, but then push the line that way as well, until there is value on the other side.

There was a thread about the Celtics and that we were trying to catch them when they were "over valued" with the point being you have to look at the line offered, not just go with or against a trend. We got lucky in there with the winning bet being the game winner on an overvalued line against Golden State. Even then, there was debate about the value of the line among us (Lakeshow and me).

Some people try to pick the winner of the game, some try to pick the winning bet. The two are not always the same.

Yes, and honestly too much "reading" is probably bad and leads to paralysis or misinfo. Filling your head with stuff that doesn't matter isn't helpful. Might just might you question what you otherwise know you should do. Sometimes happen to me, where I let a past result bias creep in where it shouldn't be. Have a (good) process, trust the process, and act on the process. Realize that you cannot, should not, and will not win every wager. You need the losers to get the winners. Have a realistic ROI expectation and don't be disappointed that you only won "a little". A little can become a lot.