[Optional]

Originally posted on 02/21/2020:

Nice going Opti!

On $100 units I have

D = + 1080
H = + 1040
K = + 1700

Now, I know the math is with you on these dogs but will they bark?
You lose if you only get 2 on K
win peanuts if D only gets 22
lose if H only gets 14

My question is would you bet these even with the math behind you as it is very possible to lose real fast with only a little change in the expectancy. I see it as risking too much to win too little.

If someone offered you those sort of odds on an ongoing basis you should bet them hard every single time.

As if you could do this forever you have ZERO chance of losing.


But in a one off game just because you are getting paid 10% higher odds than you should be it does not mean you are any more likely to win or lose. So need toa ssess the risk against your bankroll still in real world.

It's a good thread because in reality you should be thinking about every single bet you make this way. The stumbling block comes in when it is not as clear cut as a bag of colored balls. We can only guess an expected probability in sports. But the people you see around here being called sharps who really are sharp are mostly basing their capping on this starting point.



BTW, the easiest way to work this out is to use the SBR Odds Converter tool

Just put the % of balls in the "Implied Probability" box and it will tell you the correct odds for that outcome.