Originally posted on 11/29/2018:

The line is set at 7 to entice one into a play on New Orleans, but most people are too smart to do what Vegas is 'trying to get them to do', so the sharp play is to take points, but sharp people are too sharp to play what sharp people are 'supposed to play' , so the correct play is on New Orleans, which is exactly what the book wants you to think, so the real correct play is on Dallas. Once the real correct play has been established it is typically best to fade that play because most people lose over time, so the pick would best be New Orleans, and that is exactly the thinking that the books count on, so the play becomes Dallas plus the points. The public does not know any of this is going on, only sharp people. That is why the sharps flip to the public pick, because they know the public wants to think they' re sharp. So the correct play is the public sharp double fade reversal.