Originally posted on 05/04/2018:
It takes alot of losing to become a winner in sports gambling - so consider this practice.
Here are some tips.
1. Stop betting parlays period. You need to think of everything in terms of +EV and -EV, if you are making +EV plays you will have a positive ROI and no matter how much you bet per game - if you are betting a straight amount on every game - and are betting +EV bets - you will make money - it may be a fraction of a % per day - but that's what the pros do. "Going for the big score" is not what professional gamblers do - that is recreational thinking and you will lose more than you win. 95% of gamblers go bust. 2.5% have a consistent bankroll but rarely ever profit more then a few dollars a year - then the final 2.5% are the ones that actually make money - but again, it takes alot of losing before you can win anything.
You have to think of every bet you make - as, "if i bet this bet 100 times, is there a chance that i can win atleast 55 of those 100 bets." - meaning, if you bet a parlay - would you bet those single games on their own - or is there no value in betting them as single bets - if the answer to that question is no - 'X' out your parlay box and start looking for value.
2. YOU CAN NOT PREDICT GAMES. - No one can predict the outcome of an event - don't kid yourself and pretend like you can - because you can't - and that mentality is going to make you a broke gambler. The best way to be on the winning side of a sports bet is by simply finding value in a play. If there's a big favorite on the board and they are laying -8 when it should be -6.5, you take the dog. If there's an overated team that is getting alot of money - take the dog. Take the dog. Take the dog. Take the dog. You will not win consistently by betting favorites - you will not win consistently by trying to predict games. You have to find value on the board - otherwise you are fooling yourself and giving away your money.
3. NEVER LAY ANYMORE THAN -135, - this took me literally 10 years to learn and about 5k+ in losing for me to finally come to terms with this. There is no reason you should ever lay more than -135 on any game. That includes upping your stake on a -200, that includes parlaying 2 -200's into a +100, all of those things. Never lay -135 on any game period. You have to have your bets being in the majority of the + money category for you to even have a chance at profit.
4. Never bet more than 2.5% of your bankroll on one wager - ever. This is another thing that took me alot of losing to learn and actually follow. There is no point in betting more than 2.5% per bet - even that is almost too high in my opinion. 2.5% = 40 bets for your entire bankroll. If you are betting 5-10 games a day and can consistently hit at 52-55%, betting at 2.5% per unit - you WILL MAKE MONEY. But you need to be discipline - don't up your bet size on a game - no matter how good you feel about it. You will lose more than you win. So be smart about it and keep your bet size small and steady and as long as you have value on your side - you have a higher chance of coming out of it with money in your pocket than not - it just takes time.
5. Bank roll management. This took me years and years to figure out but this is what got me into the small percentage of people who actually put money in their pocket from sports betting:
$1000 bankroll, $25/bet, bet nothing higher than -135, some days you'll be +$200, some days you'll be -$200, DO NOT up your bet size after big winning day, DO NOT lower your bet size after a losing day - keep it the same no matter what. At the end of every week - take out whatever is in your account after $1000, some weeks you might be below $1000, that's fine - some weeks you'll be above $1000, take that money out - you are now earning a legit WAGE from gambling. It's as simple as that. It takes alot of time and ALOT of patience to be able to stay within those parameters. But if you lose your money, your girl, your friends and your self respect enough times you will learn that this game isn't for everyone - if you can't hack it - get another hobby.
Remember this. - "Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment."
Jim Rohn: American entrepreneur.
GL.