Originally <a href='https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=26594499'>posted</a> on 12/01/2016:
Last year was my third year posting my plays to SBR. All my plays are documented in this thread http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...679-l2yrs.html. In short, I created a model for NCAA Basketball three years ago that I've backtested to hit about 54%. It focuses primarily on totals, but a smaller quantity of sides will also be released. I struggled a bit to adjust to the new 30 second shot clock last year on my totals which resulted in some poor early season results, but we bounced back and, if you're like me and take advantage of reduced juice, profited. Starting today I'll be posting my plays daily here, I can't guarantee a specific time as my work schedule varries, but my goal is by around 5pm. Especially for the weekend releases there may be multiple releases as all information for the night games isn't available when the noon games tip.
My results from the last few seasons:
This season I've been off to a flyer, I'm 132-97 (18-15 Sides and 114-82 Totals) for 57.64% +25.3 Units. I know these numbers might sounds incredible, but I've provided screen-caps of my graded wagers. Ordinarily I had intended to begin posting my plays at the start of the season, but I've been bogged down with my two jobs the last few weeks and I'm planning to move house in a month. Then when I got off to such a hot start I got superstitious about posting the plays, but now I've figured it's 1 December it's time to begin posting. A few tweaks I've made this year including reducing the number of conferences we focus on during conference play by two (obviously won't take effect until January but this is a very minor change only affecting about 7-8% of plays) and the biggest change I've noticed my numbers tend to peak by the end of January, so I've significantly increased the threshold required to be a play in the month of February, this should reduce Febraury plays by as much as 80% to only focus on the best bets.
There's some RAS plays sprinkled in with my plays, my system doesn't do 2nd half plays
With that said let's get to the good stuff!
November Results
Sides (18-15 ytd)
Totals (114-82 ytd)
Overall (132-97 ytd)
Last year was my third year posting my plays to SBR. All my plays are documented in this thread http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...679-l2yrs.html. In short, I created a model for NCAA Basketball three years ago that I've backtested to hit about 54%. It focuses primarily on totals, but a smaller quantity of sides will also be released. I struggled a bit to adjust to the new 30 second shot clock last year on my totals which resulted in some poor early season results, but we bounced back and, if you're like me and take advantage of reduced juice, profited. Starting today I'll be posting my plays daily here, I can't guarantee a specific time as my work schedule varries, but my goal is by around 5pm. Especially for the weekend releases there may be multiple releases as all information for the night games isn't available when the noon games tip.
My results from the last few seasons:
| 2015-2016 | 2014-2015 | 2013-2014 | L3 Years | |
| Overall Win/Loss | 439-405 | 445-365 | 376-332 | 1260-1102 |
| Units Earned (@-110) | -6.5 | 43.5 | 10.8 | 47.8 |
| Win Rate | 52.01% | 54.94% | 53.11% | 53.34% |
| Sides | 92-83 | 157-126 | 88-91 | 337-300 |
| Totals | 347-322 | 288-239 | 288-241 | 923-802 |
There's some RAS plays sprinkled in with my plays, my system doesn't do 2nd half plays
With that said let's get to the good stuff!
November Results
Sides (18-15 ytd)
Totals (114-82 ytd)
Overall (132-97 ytd)
| 727 Montana St +17.0 | at Utah |
| 721 TX-San Ant +8.0 | at Cal Poly |
| 719 Cincinnati +7.0 | at Iowa State |
| 727 Under 146.0 | Montana St at Utah |