Originally <a href='http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=25210255'>posted</a> on 01/26/2016:
Let me try and educate you one more time.
So, you lost 5.5 units on your horrible KU pick.
But--- and this is the part you need to learn as an amateur--- the statistical odds that the KU/ISU game would have fallen within your "+2" was less than 7%. So, you had a 93% probability that 2 points having nothing to do with the game-- and if you understood that-- and bet on the ML-- you would have saved yourself .5 a unit.
Over the course of a season, dumb bets add up.
Books love bettors like you because they feel safer taking a bucket knowing the game has an overwhelming probability of falling nowhere near the number. You can't cap basketball like football. Teams intentionally foul at the end of a game making the final score unpredictable, and rarely falling within a 2 point gap.
The idea that you would throw 5 units on a road team against a Top 10 RPI team is insane.
And then not knowing or understand probabilities and throwing away another .5 unit.
You need to get better.
Let me try and educate you one more time.
So, you lost 5.5 units on your horrible KU pick.
But--- and this is the part you need to learn as an amateur--- the statistical odds that the KU/ISU game would have fallen within your "+2" was less than 7%. So, you had a 93% probability that 2 points having nothing to do with the game-- and if you understood that-- and bet on the ML-- you would have saved yourself .5 a unit.
Over the course of a season, dumb bets add up.
Books love bettors like you because they feel safer taking a bucket knowing the game has an overwhelming probability of falling nowhere near the number. You can't cap basketball like football. Teams intentionally foul at the end of a game making the final score unpredictable, and rarely falling within a 2 point gap.
The idea that you would throw 5 units on a road team against a Top 10 RPI team is insane.
And then not knowing or understand probabilities and throwing away another .5 unit.
You need to get better.