Originally posted on 06/28/2014:

Quote Originally Posted by JeffTheShark View Post
That's a bad example to make your point though. He played that hand horribly. You raise on the flop or the turn. That way, you feign strength and scare the other guy from doing what he just did, or alternatively, you show strength and make it seem like you're not on a flush draw, so if you hit the draw on the river or turn, if the other guy does have a made starting hand, he won't expect a flush.
Saying raise the flop or turn is easy from home. However when you breakdown the hand raising flop is not smart.

1. Phil Laak a super tight player raises from early position.
2. Gets flat called by three lose dangerous maniacs.
3. Dwan last to act preflop can see a flop cheap with perfect hand to do so but disguises hand with 25k raise. Very bold considering he has to fold if someone goes hard over the top of him. In this hand everyone knows if Laak has a monster he will push all in right after the 25k raise by dwan to scoop 40k already in pot.
4. Everyone folds but Ivey and they see a flop with 70k in pot.
5. Flop gives a Ivey a hand where 12 Cards give him the absolute nuts. It's a good flop but the problem is the three cards on flop are all ten or higher. These are cards that Dwans preflop raise absolutely implies are well within his range for this hand.
6. Dwan first to act fires 45k. There is already 70k in pot and both players are sitting with over 800k. If Ivey raises that scary flop then what does he do If dwan pushes all in? It's very possible because just calling this dwan bet makes the pot 160k already. A raise needs to be another 125k to have any chance of chasing Dwan out. If dwan doesn't fold Ivey has bloated the pot to a minimum 425k with no hand versus a tricky player and a scary flop. Also if dwan now reraises the flop all in you have to put the rest of your money in the pot calling not betting with nothing but a draw. going all in here against ANY TWO RANDOM cards in the deck and Ivey is only 54% to win! Not even considering how strong Dwan is repping here with his action so far . Ivey needs to see the turn cheap and call the 45k
7. Now turn is a complete blank a 3spades. Dwan bets 123k just a call makes the pot 410k so you need to raise like 300k or push all in on the draw with one card to go of you are going to raise.at this point Ivey is a 60% dog or worse to any pair, even pocket twos! The bet was 123k BUT THEY BOTH STILL HAVE 600k+Behind. . He can't risk 500k more in this spot the way Dwan has played the hand so far. He could be a ballsy hero and semi bluff 1/2 a million with one card to go here which would have of course won the pot. But that's not easy. Remember brad booth did the same thing to Ivey a few years back and forced Ivey to fold and Ivey had a hand that time. This time Ivey has nothing.
8. The river six gives Ivey the fourth best pair on board But dwan fires another 260k and even though pot is now almost 700k and Ivey now has a pair he can't call. Did really consider it though, that is obvious.

Ivey is is the greatest in these games and that hand was played great by both of them. I am going to dig up the booth Ivey hand from HSP in a little while.