Originally <a href='/showthread.php?p=19538626'>posted</a> on 09/04/2013:
This discussion has been here like million times. I will just cut it short, show you what my point is and than leave you be:
Imagine this matchup played with these odds in 100 alternate universes, all very alike this, but slightly different. In one of those maybe a rain will delay the match, maybe a spectator will shout during an intense rallye, maybe an umpire will not overrule line judge at the end of second set, maybe someone's strings would crack in one of the exchanges...those, very small variations. Imagine you bet one unit on youzhny in each of those exchanges OR you bet one unit on hewitt. What of these two would be a winning strategies? My point is that for sufficient numbers of those "alternate universes" you would be in positive balance if you bet on hewitt.
Now, of course there is no such thing as I explained above, but if you think about it, it is very similar to betting each day different matches.
And at the end "your sportsbook balance" really is what matters, but not after one match, but after thousands of them.
This discussion has been here like million times. I will just cut it short, show you what my point is and than leave you be:
Imagine this matchup played with these odds in 100 alternate universes, all very alike this, but slightly different. In one of those maybe a rain will delay the match, maybe a spectator will shout during an intense rallye, maybe an umpire will not overrule line judge at the end of second set, maybe someone's strings would crack in one of the exchanges...those, very small variations. Imagine you bet one unit on youzhny in each of those exchanges OR you bet one unit on hewitt. What of these two would be a winning strategies? My point is that for sufficient numbers of those "alternate universes" you would be in positive balance if you bet on hewitt.
Now, of course there is no such thing as I explained above, but if you think about it, it is very similar to betting each day different matches.
And at the end "your sportsbook balance" really is what matters, but not after one match, but after thousands of them.