Originally <a href='/showthread.php?p=18815618'>posted</a> on 05/31/2013:
spot on. would only add to this that $results over time depend on the aggrgated VALUE extracted from the lines you bet on...a team you've identified on a "situational" basis may indeed have won...but it may NOT have been a good value bet...keep doing this and you'll be -EV however impressive the W% of the strategy...
remember over the haul your yield/ROI = aggregate winning %/aggregate implied (by the book odds you got) winning %...
easy to see how as a streak progresses, people "wise up" to it...making the plays increasingly expensive/lower-value the longer the streak runs...even if the situational angle has an impressive W% it generally will be -EV because of this...
better to be a game-by-game value-hunter...this way ur free to take into account the streak and the extent to which it has been over-/under-appreciated by bettors relative to its historical predictive value...
any "system" or situational angle such as this...that tells u what to do (ie. back or fade) with insufficient attention (often zero) to price WILL fail...
this is why all manner of "chasing"/"line-clearing" is long-term -EV...cuz the focus is on "winning" (translation: buying into the play at whatever the cost to be in a position to win your damn chase or clear the damn line..."wheew, that was close, but we won")...ditto for buying into a play, price be damned, just to adhere to the streak-following method...so you "don't get left out"...not as dramatically catastrophic as chasing/line-clearing...but equally -EV per $ played...cuz it distracts u from...
the core consideration: is this a good play AT THE AVAILABLE PRICE? (anything that ignores those last 4 words is a recipe for long-terem -EV)
spot on. would only add to this that $results over time depend on the aggrgated VALUE extracted from the lines you bet on...a team you've identified on a "situational" basis may indeed have won...but it may NOT have been a good value bet...keep doing this and you'll be -EV however impressive the W% of the strategy...
remember over the haul your yield/ROI = aggregate winning %/aggregate implied (by the book odds you got) winning %...
easy to see how as a streak progresses, people "wise up" to it...making the plays increasingly expensive/lower-value the longer the streak runs...even if the situational angle has an impressive W% it generally will be -EV because of this...
better to be a game-by-game value-hunter...this way ur free to take into account the streak and the extent to which it has been over-/under-appreciated by bettors relative to its historical predictive value...
any "system" or situational angle such as this...that tells u what to do (ie. back or fade) with insufficient attention (often zero) to price WILL fail...
this is why all manner of "chasing"/"line-clearing" is long-term -EV...cuz the focus is on "winning" (translation: buying into the play at whatever the cost to be in a position to win your damn chase or clear the damn line..."wheew, that was close, but we won")...ditto for buying into a play, price be damned, just to adhere to the streak-following method...so you "don't get left out"...not as dramatically catastrophic as chasing/line-clearing...but equally -EV per $ played...cuz it distracts u from...
the core consideration: is this a good play AT THE AVAILABLE PRICE? (anything that ignores those last 4 words is a recipe for long-terem -EV)