[fitguy67]

Originally posted on 05/31/2013:

Hi fellas I'm brand new to the thread after stumbling onto this site. Basically been tailing no coin here and there to get some confidence with my own picks (NO COIN YOU KILL IT). I met some guy the other day that was telling me about his "streak rule" that I wanted to share. He said he bets any team that has won 3 straight until they lose and bets against any team that has lost 3 straight until they win. Example- the Cubs currently, I have made good money during this 7 game win streak. I just started doing this about a week or two ago and had some success since baseball is so streaky. Love to know what u guys think.

Every streak ends. I wouldn't blindly bet on/against any kind of streak in any sport unless historically and recently it has been extremely profitable. I would backtest to see if it is before blindly making those types of plays. just my 2 cents, though

There are certainly "hot" and "cold" streaks in baseball, but every game is an independent event and you should approach it as such. Just my take.

spot on. would only add to this that $results over time depend on the aggrgated VALUE extracted from the lines you bet on...a team you've identified on a "situational" basis may indeed have won...but it may NOT have been a good value bet...keep doing this and you'll be -EV however impressive the W% of the strategy...

remember over the haul your yield/ROI = aggregate winning %/aggregate implied (by the book odds you got) winning %...

easy to see how as a streak progresses, people "wise up" to it...making the plays increasingly expensive/lower-value the longer the streak runs...even if the situational angle has an impressive W% it generally will be -EV because of this...

better to be a game-by-game value-hunter...this way ur free to take into account the streak and the extent to which it has been over-/under-appreciated by bettors relative to its historical predictive value...

any "system" or situational angle such as this...that tells u what to do (ie. back or fade) with insufficient attention (often zero) to price WILL fail...

this is why all manner of "chasing"/"line-clearing" is long-term -EV...cuz the focus is on "winning" (translation: buying into the play at whatever the cost to be in a position to win your damn chase or clear the damn line..."wheew, that was close, but we won")...ditto for buying into a play, price be damned, just to adhere to the streak-following method...so you "don't get left out"...not as dramatically catastrophic as chasing/line-clearing...but equally -EV per $ played...cuz it distracts u from...

the core consideration: is this a good play AT THE AVAILABLE PRICE? (anything that ignores those last 4 words is a recipe for long-terem -EV)