Any books that help teach how to make a model? : Nominated Post

[Dark Horse]

Originally <a href='/showthread.php?p=16457574'>posted</a> on 10/20/2012:

I love models. I really do. They are incredibly insightful for complex processes as they provide insight into how to think about the process, how processes affect each other, and allow one to refine ones thinking. Betting sports is by no means easy, neither is building an appropriate model for it. In my experience modeling sports has led me to essentially battle variance. I've found it much more efficient to identify spots where variance is your friend.

It's an amazing learning experience, especially if you keep at it long enough. I look back at my earliest 'models', and even though they may have worked they now seem like kindergarten stick figures. The model I'm currently completing has been a year-and-a-half in the making. It's art. The ability to distill something complex into something extremely concise and precise develops with practice. It wouldn't surprise me if history would decide that serious sports bettors did predictive and probability theory an enormous favor.