Newb Bankroll Management

**ODDmaster** · 02-17-12, 12:50 PM

3-5% Is perfectly working for me.

**mcduggly** · 02-17-12, 02:37 PM

I started with $100 as well and just used my own system. I was making $20 bets and am now at over $800 after starting about 2 months ago.

**135steward** · 02-17-12, 03:17 PM

As a recreational gambler, I look to do two things: feel the rush and not sweat the losses. If you're betting $1, you probably don't care about winning or losing, so why bother? If you bet $100, you should keep more than $100 on hand, because you won't be able to bet again after a single loss. So, you budget for gas, food, rent/mortgage, etc., right? So budget for recreational gambling.

A couple of rules of thumb: as a recreational gambler, you'll lose about $5 on average (betting straight ATS, o/u, or ML) for every $100 bet. BUT your win/loss ratio can be several times that, so maintain outside cash flow in your budget until your "luck" changes. Enough to cover (sorry, I have to get mathy here) about 3x the square route of the number of bets you place, or enough to cover about 10 consecutive losses, whichever is greater.

And if you're still reading, one more word of advice or two: If your losses exceed the numbers you budgeted, take a break. This is for fun, right? If you overextend, it ain't fun any more.

Now, brace yourself. The Kelly crowd may stop by with formulas with Greek letters in them.

**mcduggly** · 02-17-12, 03:22 PM

Originally posted by 135steward

As a recreational gambler, I look to do two things: feel the rush and not sweat the losses. If you're betting $1, you probably don't care about winning or losing, so why bother? If you bet $100, you should keep more than $100 on hand, because you won't be able to bet again after a single loss. So, you budget for gas, food, rent/mortgage, etc., right? So budget for recreational gambling.

A couple of rules of thumb: as a recreational gambler, you'll lose about $5 on average (betting straight ATS, o/u, or ML) for every $100 bet. BUT your win/loss ratio can be several times that, so maintain outside cash flow in your budget until your "luck" changes. Enough to cover (sorry, I have to get mathy here) about 3x the square route of the number of bets you place, or enough to cover about 10 consecutive losses, whichever is greater.

And if you're still reading, one more word of advice or two: If your losses exceed the numbers you budgeted, take a break. This is for fun, right? If you overextend, it ain't fun any more.

Now, brace yourself. The Kelly crowd may stop by with formulas with Greek letters in them.

Hey Steward, just wondering, where did you get the, "about 3x the square route of the number of bets you place, or enough to cover about 10 consecutive losses, whichever is greater."?

**135steward** · 02-17-12, 03:47 PM

you'll be sorry you asked

Originally posted by mcduggly

Hey Steward, just wondering, where did you get the, "about 3x the square route of the number of bets you place, or enough to cover about 10 consecutive losses, whichever is greater."?

The square route thing goes to variance and standard deviation. De Moivre's (I'm sure I screwed up the spelling) theorem shows that a gambler's bankroll varies with the square route of the number of bets he places. E.g., 100 bets at one unit each means he should be prepared to be up or down 10. Allowing for 3x that number (3 standard deviations) means you'll be ok about 99% of the time.

The 10 consecutive losses may happen once in 2^10 = 1000 bets. These are roughed out numbers. But figure if you only placed one bet/day, that's maybe 10,000 bets over 30 years, so you'll see a lot of wierd shit over that time.

**jgilmartin** · 02-18-12, 04:58 AM

Originally posted by 135steward

Now, brace yourself. The Kelly crowd may stop by with formulas with Greek letters in them.

Kelly crowd has arrived! In all seriousness, though, I wouldn't recommend Kelly to a beginner, especially when they are just in it for a bit of fun and not really expecting to win anything. OP, I was like you when I started and I think I was betting 5% as I, too, had a very small bankroll and could afford to lose all of it without hurting my lifestyle.

**mcduggly** · 02-18-12, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by 135steward

The square route thing goes to variance and standard deviation. De Moivre's (I'm sure I screwed up the spelling) theorem shows that a gambler's bankroll varies with the square route of the number of bets he places. E.g., 100 bets at one unit each means he should be prepared to be up or down 10. Allowing for 3x that number (3 standard deviations) means you'll be ok about 99% of the time.

The 10 consecutive losses may happen once in 2^10 = 1000 bets. These are roughed out numbers. But figure if you only placed one bet/day, that's maybe 10,000 bets over 30 years, so you'll see a lot of wierd shit over that time.

Thanks!

**MickeyD** · 04-12-12, 09:11 AM

Thats was a nice read, my personal opinion is the smaller the bankroll, bigger bets.. I'm no talking 50% of bankroll, but 5-7%, depending on how well u know the sport etc. Oh, and great great factor is, is this the bankroll you're comfy with? i mean, if 100% is alot to you i'd suggest betting between 3-5%, coz you're aiming for a bigger bankroll. If you want to do it completely right than bet 1-3% imo

**jumpsquat** · 04-15-12, 07:01 AM

I have been there, and i completely agree with MickeyD. At such low bankroll, your first goal is to build a bigger bankroll, therefore, i'd suggest betting 5-10 percent at max at start.
But, if you don't want to rush, i suggest you keep it at 5% max, you are new to this and first you need to "learn" what are good information, what are not, what to be aware etc. I suggest doing that for at least 3-4 months, track your stats, see your advantages, see what you are not good at. Consider it as a "voulonteering work", in order to get a better "job".