it's pretty much non-existent. it's all about individual player effort on a given night. they just cannot get up for every game. with this dumbass shootout rule they play for ties to get a guaranteed point. no one has a clue and the bookies spread the money line too wide to ensure they will make money. hot team theory works but once again the books are way ahead of the bettor. someone on here claims that hockey unders are the way to go. seems like scoring is up this year from last however. stick to college hoops and try to get lucky on those.
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Grand Salami Example - Would this be useful?
Well, the reason that I ask is that I created a website, http://smartsportsfan.com, and I have a ton of data that is put into an organized DB - so I'd like to come up with something useful.
I have the ability to slice and dice the data however I want, and can be quite sophisticated. So, I was thinking the following pseudo-algorithm for something like Grand Salami.
For each team playing, take 0.5 * (home_goals + away_goals) over the last X games where X then becomes the row number.
Then, sort on the order in which they played. Then, multiply by the odds to see if it is profitable over time.
So, if there were 6 teams playing tonight (3 games) and the over 15.5 was -140, the results would look something like:
Row, GrandSalami, $winloss, $cummulative
1, 16.5, +$100, +$100
2, 21.5, +$100, +$200
3, 20.5, +$100, +$300
4, 16.5, +$100, +$400
5, 18, +$100, +$500
6, 23, +$100, +$600
7, 18.5, +$100, +$700
8, 17.5, +$100, +$800
9, 15, -$140, +$660
10, 15.5, 0, +$660
11, 18.5, +$100, +$760
12, 13, -$140, +$620
13, 19.5, +$100, +$720
14, 12.5, -$140, +$580
15, 17, +$100, +$680
16, 16.5, +$100, +$780
17, 16, +$100, +$880
18, 17.5, +$100, +$980
19, 23, +$100, +$1080
20, 13, -$140, +$940
This is real data for 6 teams (although fake odds) playing on a given night, and obviously this shows that it would be a profitable bet.
But, the beauty of it is that single-click variants can be included, like:
1. Consider whether they are home or away (as opposed to here, it looks at all games independent of home versus away)
2. Only consider goals for (as opposed to here, I am averaging both goals for and goals against)
Also, I can do similar things for money line and puck line bets. E.g., One click to look at a team's wins vs. loses, as opposed to looking at its goals for and goals against compared to opponents goals for and goals against.
I don't know if any of this is clear, but if it makes sense to anyone, and you think it would be useful, let me know and I will implement it ASAP.
Looking forward to hearing feedback.Comment