Some tips to for the newbs.

[crazyfied]

great post suicideking

[mihi4]

Excellent post Suicekings!

[mihi4]

especially the part where u say not to pay someone and use other opinions when betting cuz our money is our responsibility

[scott235]

most problems arise from winning. as long as you lose , you will never have a problem with a book. What you do upon signup is critical. Any newb can PM me at any time if you have any questions.

[Kemalettin]

very good thread

[dataz722]

Yes, 5Dimes has a 10c MLB line all the time (same as BetJam), and a 5c line during overnight hours.

What are 10 cent lines that I keep seeing?


I know, probably a really stupid question. Sorry

[pedro803]

great thread, thanks for the great advice everyone!

[TheBeautifulGame]

1) Playing at a good book is key (5Dimes is another reputable site, adding on to the list that Sawyer provided). If you deposit at a crap book you will eventually have problems with them. Also, having accounts with at least 2 books vastly increases your flexibility & earning potential.

2) When possible, take advantage of reduced juice options over any bonus offered. It is FAR more valuable in the long run as it reduces your breakeven winning percentage dramatically.

3) Your long term success in the industry is defined by how you manage the hot and cold streaks associated with gambling. Maybe you'll win 55% of wagers over an extended period (which may not sound impressive, but would actually yield a strong profit margin), but that span will be full of ups and downs. Have a well defined notion of what your maximum wager should be for one event and if you're running cold, there's no shame in cutting down that bet size for a bit or taking a few days off to clear your head. On that same note, not everyone is cut out for sports betting. Decide whether you can take the stress before you lose a lot of money.

4) Parlays are only for fun. Stick to straight wagers if you're serious about sports betting. Books generate a substantial portion of their revenue from parlays and teasers.

5) Don't chase your losses. It's SO tempting sometimes but is a long term losing strategy. You need to be able to move on quickly from a loss and not let it affect your future plays.

6) Don't tail other people's picks or pay for handicapper's services. You're responsible for your money and if you're not making your own selections, you're eventually going to be handing your money over to the books (or even worse, to the touts). Tailing teaches you nothing and you'll never develop your own skills.

7) Learn to handicap. I repeat, if you're not making your own selections, you're not going to be a long term winner. There are numerous threads about the different handicapping methods and techniques, as well as numerous proven cappers to learn from at SBR. Justin7 (one of the mods) is also publishing a book later this summer that should be a very comprehensive guide. In general, you need to be able to establish what a fair price is for a particular matchup so you can compare it to what is being offered and identify where there is value.

8) Keep records of your plays. They will help you learn from your mistakes and maintain greater discipline.

9) Pick one sport to start in and master it before you spread your focus to others. Trying to learn multiple sports at the same time is tough.

10) Do your homework about how betting actually works. Prices associated for spreads/totals in major sports are governed by the market (just like the prices of stocks/commodities/etc). Lines open at certain values set by the linemakers first by using statistics and then adjusting them to meet with public opinion so that they will hopefully generate equal betting on both sides (a perceived fair line). The books' goal is to have even betting (or rather equal money) on both sides so that they can take their 10% vig off the top and pay off the winners with the losers money, thus guaranteeing their profit margin.

The market can generally be considered to become more efficient closer to the start of the game. This means, that it's very important where a line opens, which way it moves (and how), and where it closes. Lines move as the books try to make one side more attractive to bettors so that the money evens out. The bottom line for you is to always try to beat the closing line and you do that by accurately assigning value to a matchup and then buying at the better price before the line moves, not buying into a line that has already moved.

11) Math Skills. If you don't have them, get some. Assigning value to matchups means at least a basic understanding of Expected Value, Binomial probabilities, Poisson distributions, & Pythagorean expectation. They sound complicated, but there are numerous resources online and in the Think Tank to reference as you work your way through them. The time spent on these will pay you back tenfold. Pay special attention to the ability to convert different odds formats to compare value, and how to calculate the value of points on a spread using push probabilities.

12) Excel. Learn how to use it. Many of the calculations you'll be doing are repetitive and strong command of Excel means being able to handicap much more efficiently. You need to develop methods to handicap games as quickly as possible so you can identify potential value and then focus on those selected games.

13) Line movement. Mentioned above, it's the pulse of the industry. It offers you a chance to observe how the books react to money placed on each side and can often provide hints as to what their opinions are on matchups. Handicapping comes first, but this is a good aspect to study later on.

Absolutely brilliant write up man, well done. How do I nominate this post?

[AceKingHigh]

Click on the thumbs up next to the coin under the signature.

[Balco10]

Never ha problems with Caribsports and is a great place for small to average players. Very honest and fast payouts with top notch CS!
B- rating they have is a personal opinion and still believe in the top 10 easily! Their website is user friendly and no extra advertisement.

[jarvol]

fade yourself

OMG YES! I do this in college and pro football every year with very good results. I mark 8-10 college games and 4-5 NFL games every week that I really like and just bet opposite. Works great.

[Shonner]

I'm a big believer that the opening line is sharp and the bettors are not. I make the majority of my wagers by looking at the opening line and selecting teams that have more favorable current lines because the bettors are against them.

Therefore, I bet college and baseball more than NFL and NBA because they have more line movement.

My favorite play is that one that started off team A -3 and by the end of the week team A is +1. Oh boy do I love my team A at +1.

[gags]

Don't bet. TRADE. Use Betfair & Pinnacle (ie. the best books)

[pedro803]

yea, I so wish that we had access to Pinacle here in the states!

[WorkHorse]

Read everyone.....Trust no one.

(especially the self-promoters)

[DFWallace]

Don't listen to the advice most people give on this site. They are long term losers and really haven't a clue when it comes to sports betting. The only way you're going to be profitable is by learning yourself. Start by reading either Sharp Sports Betting or Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting (preferably both). They are good books because they are based on math instead of some arbitrary whim pulled out of the ass of a loser. Follow that by reading the 2+2 wells in the sports betting forum and posts/threads by Ganchrow on this site. Success is not guaranteed with all this but it will put you on the right path.

Alternatively if you don't feel like doing any of that that look for bets when the +# is bigger than the -#.

Thanks for your input here. I just picked up those 2 books. Fun!

[gomyr]

Thanks SuicideKings

Amazing information, thanks SuicideKings!

[allin1]

Don't bet. TRADE. Use Betfair & Pinnacle (ie. the best books)

could you please give more details on that?

what kind of strategies can newbies use for trading line changes using pinnacle and an exchange?

[GunShard]

First time I read SuicideKings post. Very informative.

[ycchai]

found some usefull information here, thanks

[bubbs]

Yea! Thanks for bumping this up... Good tidbits for sure

[probettor1]

1) Playing at a good book is key (5Dimes is another reputable site, adding on to the list that Sawyer provided). If you deposit at a crap book you will eventually have problems with them. Also, having accounts with at least 2 books vastly increases your flexibility & earning potential.

2) When possible, take advantage of reduced juice options over any bonus offered. It is FAR more valuable in the long run as it reduces your breakeven winning percentage dramatically.

3) Your long term success in the industry is defined by how you manage the hot and cold streaks associated with gambling. Maybe you'll win 55% of wagers over an extended period (which may not sound impressive, but would actually yield a strong profit margin), but that span will be full of ups and downs. Have a well defined notion of what your maximum wager should be for one event and if you're running cold, there's no shame in cutting down that bet size for a bit or taking a few days off to clear your head. On that same note, not everyone is cut out for sports betting. Decide whether you can take the stress before you lose a lot of money.

4) Parlays are only for fun. Stick to straight wagers if you're serious about sports betting. Books generate a substantial portion of their revenue from parlays and teasers.

5) Don't chase your losses. It's SO tempting sometimes but is a long term losing strategy. You need to be able to move on quickly from a loss and not let it affect your future plays.

6) Don't tail other people's picks or pay for handicapper's services. You're responsible for your money and if you're not making your own selections, you're eventually going to be handing your money over to the books (or even worse, to the touts). Tailing teaches you nothing and you'll never develop your own skills.

7) Learn to handicap. I repeat, if you're not making your own selections, you're not going to be a long term winner. There are numerous threads about the different handicapping methods and techniques, as well as numerous proven cappers to learn from at SBR. Justin7 (one of the mods) is also publishing a book later this summer that should be a very comprehensive guide. In general, you need to be able to establish what a fair price is for a particular matchup so you can compare it to what is being offered and identify where there is value.

8) Keep records of your plays. They will help you learn from your mistakes and maintain greater discipline.

9) Pick one sport to start in and master it before you spread your focus to others. Trying to learn multiple sports at the same time is tough.

10) Do your homework about how betting actually works. Prices associated for spreads/totals in major sports are governed by the market (just like the prices of stocks/commodities/etc). Lines open at certain values set by the linemakers first by using statistics and then adjusting them to meet with public opinion so that they will hopefully generate equal betting on both sides (a perceived fair line). The books' goal is to have even betting (or rather equal money) on both sides so that they can take their 10% vig off the top and pay off the winners with the losers money, thus guaranteeing their profit margin.

The market can generally be considered to become more efficient closer to the start of the game. This means, that it's very important where a line opens, which way it moves (and how), and where it closes. Lines move as the books try to make one side more attractive to bettors so that the money evens out. The bottom line for you is to always try to beat the closing line and you do that by accurately assigning value to a matchup and then buying at the better price before the line moves, not buying into a line that has already moved.

11) Math Skills. If you don't have them, get some. Assigning value to matchups means at least a basic understanding of Expected Value, Binomial probabilities, Poisson distributions, & Pythagorean expectation. They sound complicated, but there are numerous resources online and in the Think Tank to reference as you work your way through them. The time spent on these will pay you back tenfold. Pay special attention to the ability to convert different odds formats to compare value, and how to calculate the value of points on a spread using push probabilities.

12) Excel. Learn how to use it. Many of the calculations you'll be doing are repetitive and strong command of Excel means being able to handicap much more efficiently. You need to develop methods to handicap games as quickly as possible so you can identify potential value and then focus on those selected games.

13) Line movement. Mentioned above, it's the pulse of the industry. It offers you a chance to observe how the books react to money placed on each side and can often provide hints as to what their opinions are on matchups. Handicapping comes first, but this is a good aspect to study later on.

This is all true, very practical and organized. Doing that will increase your chances of being a professional bettor to 1%. Not doing that will reduce it to 0.000000001%.

[Inkwell77]

[chipper]

Suicidekings post is fantastic. There's a whole lot of wisdom there for newbies and seasoned betters alike. Thanks!

[probettor1]

Parlays are for fun and straight bets are for fun for 98% of all bettors. For newbies that % goes to 99.9%.

[soul786]

Parlay's are one thing but I've seen some value in choosing right and still coming out in profit with Round Robins. What's the perspective on that? Same as a regular parlay?

[probettor1]

Round robin is better as it makes u feel more intelligent being able to apply a system known only by degenerates.

[msu5611]

TA.......Best advice I've seen. Unfortunately, easier said than done.

Totally agree.

[cutchemist42]

1) Playing at a good book is key (5Dimes is another reputable site, adding on to the list that Sawyer provided). If you deposit at a crap book you will eventually have problems with them. Also, having accounts with at least 2 books vastly increases your flexibility & earning potential.

2) When possible, take advantage of reduced juice options over any bonus offered. It is FAR more valuable in the long run as it reduces your breakeven winning percentage dramatically.

3) Your long term success in the industry is defined by how you manage the hot and cold streaks associated with gambling. Maybe you'll win 55% of wagers over an extended period (which may not sound impressive, but would actually yield a strong profit margin), but that span will be full of ups and downs. Have a well defined notion of what your maximum wager should be for one event and if you're running cold, there's no shame in cutting down that bet size for a bit or taking a few days off to clear your head. On that same note, not everyone is cut out for sports betting. Decide whether you can take the stress before you lose a lot of money.

4) Parlays are only for fun. Stick to straight wagers if you're serious about sports betting. Books generate a substantial portion of their revenue from parlays and teasers.

5) Don't chase your losses. It's SO tempting sometimes but is a long term losing strategy. You need to be able to move on quickly from a loss and not let it affect your future plays.

6) Don't tail other people's picks or pay for handicapper's services. You're responsible for your money and if you're not making your own selections, you're eventually going to be handing your money over to the books (or even worse, to the touts). Tailing teaches you nothing and you'll never develop your own skills.

7) Learn to handicap. I repeat, if you're not making your own selections, you're not going to be a long term winner. There are numerous threads about the different handicapping methods and techniques, as well as numerous proven cappers to learn from at SBR. Justin7 (one of the mods) is also publishing a book later this summer that should be a very comprehensive guide. In general, you need to be able to establish what a fair price is for a particular matchup so you can compare it to what is being offered and identify where there is value.

8) Keep records of your plays. They will help you learn from your mistakes and maintain greater discipline.

9) Pick one sport to start in and master it before you spread your focus to others. Trying to learn multiple sports at the same time is tough.

10) Do your homework about how betting actually works. Prices associated for spreads/totals in major sports are governed by the market (just like the prices of stocks/commodities/etc). Lines open at certain values set by the linemakers first by using statistics and then adjusting them to meet with public opinion so that they will hopefully generate equal betting on both sides (a perceived fair line). The books' goal is to have even betting (or rather equal money) on both sides so that they can take their 10% vig off the top and pay off the winners with the losers money, thus guaranteeing their profit margin.

The market can generally be considered to become more efficient closer to the start of the game. This means, that it's very important where a line opens, which way it moves (and how), and where it closes. Lines move as the books try to make one side more attractive to bettors so that the money evens out. The bottom line for you is to always try to beat the closing line and you do that by accurately assigning value to a matchup and then buying at the better price before the line moves, not buying into a line that has already moved.

11) Math Skills. If you don't have them, get some. Assigning value to matchups means at least a basic understanding of Expected Value, Binomial probabilities, Poisson distributions, & Pythagorean expectation. They sound complicated, but there are numerous resources online and in the Think Tank to reference as you work your way through them. The time spent on these will pay you back tenfold. Pay special attention to the ability to convert different odds formats to compare value, and how to calculate the value of points on a spread using push probabilities.

12) Excel. Learn how to use it. Many of the calculations you'll be doing are repetitive and strong command of Excel means being able to handicap much more efficiently. You need to develop methods to handicap games as quickly as possible so you can identify potential value and then focus on those selected games.

13) Line movement. Mentioned above, it's the pulse of the industry. It offers you a chance to observe how the books react to money placed on each side and can often provide hints as to what their opinions are on matchups. Handicapping comes first, but this is a good aspect to study later on.

Could you point us towards the threads involving how to learn handicapping ourselves? Also, what threads would allow us to lean about using stats/excel for sports betting. I'm an econ major with good understanding of excel, SPSS, and stats so would love to learn this!

Thanks!

[chipper]

I too would like to be pointed in the direction of some good info to learn handicapping. Right now I'm just blindly following the touts figuring they are the experts but quite honestly that hasn't always gone so well. After three years my original bankroll is still intact and up but not nearly as up as I would have hoped.

[Blondie]

Could you point us towards the threads involving how to learn handicapping ourselves? Also, what threads would allow us to lean about using stats/excel for sports betting. I'm an econ major with good understanding of excel, SPSS, and stats so would love to learn this!

Thanks!

This section may be of assistance to you

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/

[MickeyD]

What a great read suicideking, i agree