Should I still continue to bet? I'm getting good prices on college football over/unders before the line moves but have lost a lot over the last 2-3 weeks. I'd like to think if I'm getting the right side of the line that in the long run I'll be winning but trying to gauge how much value there truly is by being on getting early lines and beating the public but still losing?
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Right Bets
How many bets do you take in this 2-3 weeks? I mean.....number, not stakes. And odds??Comment -
It's just variance. You need a lot of bets before you reach your expected win rate. Think of flipping a coin, it's 50-50, but you are not likely to hit 50-50 if you flipped 100 times. So even 100 bets is small sample size. If you are beating the closing line consistently it's only variance and you'll be in the money if you stick too it flat betting. If you vary bet size you're on the road to ruin, unless you are a kelly criteria expert and even those guys go busto. I'd recommend flat betting at least until your bad luck changes.
I don't beat closing lines, but I have read what others much smarter than me say about closing line and if you can do it consistently some books will cut your limits even if you are losing, because they know you'll eventually win.Comment
