NASCAR - Coca Cola 600
Game Time: 05/27/2007 05:30 PM
By: Brian Gabrielle | bgsports.com
One of the biggest days in auto racing is this Sunday with the running of the Indy 500 followed by NASCAR's Coke 600 in Charlotte where Roger Penske hopes to finally get a car into the winner's circle.
It'll be a loooooong race on Sunday in Charlotte. And that's after you spend the early part of the afternoon watching the Indy 500. Plan for a nap.
The Coke 600 is the longest event in NASCAR, and it'll take place on the new-ish surface at Lowe's Motor Speedway which has been "levigated" (i.e., smoothed) to the point where it has too much grip with the old, softer Goodyear tire. Therefore Goodyear is forced to use an extremely hard tire, meaning the cars have less grip, making side-by-side racing difficult, and passing near impossible.
Track position will mean everything on Sunday, and you can bet that when late pit stops come, a lot of teams will change two tires or none at all. Let's take a look at the weekend's best bets.
Two weeks ago: We picked the outright winner correctly, as Jeff Gordon came through for us at +500. Unfortunately Greg Biffle was leading Jeff Burton for about 98% of the Darlington race, but gave up his position late (Biffle faded badly and finished 15th while Burton finished 10th). That blew a head-to-head wager that looked like money in the bank, and put as at a negative 0.17 units for the day. For the season, then, we're at a positive net 2.14 units on 16.5 units wagered, a 13.0% return. (And as always, please note that if you'd eschewed the conservative betting scheme we outline below, and simply had wagered one unit per bet on everything we've recommended this season, you'd be up 15.34 units on 44 units wagered, a return of 34.9%, though of course, there's more risk involved.)
This week in Charlotte, take Jimmie Johnson (+400), 1/6th unit: Well, duh. In the last eight points races on Lowe's Motor Speedway ("Lowe's" is also stenciled on J.J.'s hood), Johnson has won five times, finished second twice, and third once. He's the man here. If he's lagging early in this race, or if he's stuck at 20th in the middle, don't worry. He'll be there at the end. 'Nuff said.
Take Matt Kenseth (+900), 1/6th unit: Kenseth doesn't have a great record at Charlotte. His finishing average here over the last four events is 20.5. But a closer look indicates he'll contend Sunday night. Considering Atlanta, Charlotte and Texas share a lot of the same high-banked, 1.5-mile qualities, Kenseth's third-place finish at Atlanta and his second-place finish at Texas are supremely relevant.
And I'll tell you something else: Kenseth's #17 was the strongest car, by far, in the Nextel All-Star Challenge last Saturday night. The field kept getting inverted, the running order kept getting jumbled, and Kenseth kept getting yanked around, but until he sped in the pits on the evening's final stop, he looked to be the odds-on favorite to win (he finished seventh). That fast piece, and Milwaukee Matt's patience, could mean a first career win at Charlotte.
Take Denny Hamlin (+1000), 1/6th unit: LMS seems like kind of a weird choice for the venue where the snake-bitten Hamlin will break his 2007 curse; he's finished 28th, 8th and 9th here, and has proven he's more of a threat in the Car of Tomorrow than the old car (and this is an "old car" race). Still, Hamlin fits the profile of a guy who'll eventually excel in a race this long. He's patient, he's very good at improving his car as a night advances, and he's got big-team equipment. Many might say Hamlin's teammate, Tony Stewart (+1000), is a better choice here, but I think the kid gets into the top five and threatens late.
Game Time: 05/27/2007 05:30 PM
By: Brian Gabrielle | bgsports.com
One of the biggest days in auto racing is this Sunday with the running of the Indy 500 followed by NASCAR's Coke 600 in Charlotte where Roger Penske hopes to finally get a car into the winner's circle.
It'll be a loooooong race on Sunday in Charlotte. And that's after you spend the early part of the afternoon watching the Indy 500. Plan for a nap.
The Coke 600 is the longest event in NASCAR, and it'll take place on the new-ish surface at Lowe's Motor Speedway which has been "levigated" (i.e., smoothed) to the point where it has too much grip with the old, softer Goodyear tire. Therefore Goodyear is forced to use an extremely hard tire, meaning the cars have less grip, making side-by-side racing difficult, and passing near impossible.
Track position will mean everything on Sunday, and you can bet that when late pit stops come, a lot of teams will change two tires or none at all. Let's take a look at the weekend's best bets.
Two weeks ago: We picked the outright winner correctly, as Jeff Gordon came through for us at +500. Unfortunately Greg Biffle was leading Jeff Burton for about 98% of the Darlington race, but gave up his position late (Biffle faded badly and finished 15th while Burton finished 10th). That blew a head-to-head wager that looked like money in the bank, and put as at a negative 0.17 units for the day. For the season, then, we're at a positive net 2.14 units on 16.5 units wagered, a 13.0% return. (And as always, please note that if you'd eschewed the conservative betting scheme we outline below, and simply had wagered one unit per bet on everything we've recommended this season, you'd be up 15.34 units on 44 units wagered, a return of 34.9%, though of course, there's more risk involved.)
This week in Charlotte, take Jimmie Johnson (+400), 1/6th unit: Well, duh. In the last eight points races on Lowe's Motor Speedway ("Lowe's" is also stenciled on J.J.'s hood), Johnson has won five times, finished second twice, and third once. He's the man here. If he's lagging early in this race, or if he's stuck at 20th in the middle, don't worry. He'll be there at the end. 'Nuff said.
Take Matt Kenseth (+900), 1/6th unit: Kenseth doesn't have a great record at Charlotte. His finishing average here over the last four events is 20.5. But a closer look indicates he'll contend Sunday night. Considering Atlanta, Charlotte and Texas share a lot of the same high-banked, 1.5-mile qualities, Kenseth's third-place finish at Atlanta and his second-place finish at Texas are supremely relevant.
And I'll tell you something else: Kenseth's #17 was the strongest car, by far, in the Nextel All-Star Challenge last Saturday night. The field kept getting inverted, the running order kept getting jumbled, and Kenseth kept getting yanked around, but until he sped in the pits on the evening's final stop, he looked to be the odds-on favorite to win (he finished seventh). That fast piece, and Milwaukee Matt's patience, could mean a first career win at Charlotte.
Take Denny Hamlin (+1000), 1/6th unit: LMS seems like kind of a weird choice for the venue where the snake-bitten Hamlin will break his 2007 curse; he's finished 28th, 8th and 9th here, and has proven he's more of a threat in the Car of Tomorrow than the old car (and this is an "old car" race). Still, Hamlin fits the profile of a guy who'll eventually excel in a race this long. He's patient, he's very good at improving his car as a night advances, and he's got big-team equipment. Many might say Hamlin's teammate, Tony Stewart (+1000), is a better choice here, but I think the kid gets into the top five and threatens late.