Best bets for Thursday's Super Start Batteries 400 at Kansas Speedway 🏁
Best bets for Thursday's Super Start Batteries 400 at Kansas Speedway
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Kansas City, Kansas, on Thursday for the Super Start Batteries 400 Presented by O'Reilly Auto Parts.
Austin Dillon held on for his first Cup series victory of the season on Sunday in Fort Worth, Texas. Who will take the checkered flag under the lights Thursday (7:30 p.m. ET) at Kansas Speedway?
ESPN.com NASCAR senior writer Ryan McGee, fantasy's Mike Clay, Stats & Info's Matthew Willis and editor Scott Symmes offer their best bets for the race.
Note: Odds from Caesars Sportsbook as of Tuesday, unless otherwise noted.
Best bets
Kevin Harvick (4-1)
Willis: Picking the favorite is so boring, but you know what's not boring? Winning. No driver has won more races (tied for most with Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson) or led more laps at Kansas Speedway than Harvick. All three of his wins at the track have come in the past 13 outings there. In those 13 races, he also has a trio of runner-up finishes and eight races with at least 50 laps led. One more note: No driver has led more laps on 1.5-mile tracks this season than Happy Harvick.
McGee: In the 20-year history of Kansas Speedway, only three drivers have earned three wins on the best racetrack to be built between a casino and an outlet mall. Jeff Gordon is retired. Jimmie Johnson hasn't won anywhere in three years. That brings us to Harvick, who has earned all three of his Kansas wins since 2013. The most recent one came in this race (OK, technically this race -- it was the spring date) in 2018, and he was on the pole for this event one year ago. The 2020 points and wins leader has been particularly ridiculous on intermediate tracks, with only one non-top-10 among his eight races on 1.5-mile-ish ovals, including fourth- and fifth-place runs in the previous two points-paying events at Kentucky and Texas. You might call tracks such as Kansas Speedway cookie cutters, but Happy calls them money-makers.
Chase Elliott (+550)
Symmes: Elliott won last week's All-Star Race in impressive fashion, but recent points-paying races haven't gone his way. A trip to Kansas could be just what he needs to turn the tide. Elliott has scored three straight top-5s at Kansas, including a victory in the 2018 playoffs. His average finish in the past four Kansas races is 4.75, the best in the Cup Series. When NASCAR resumed after the COVID-19 shutdown, Elliott and the No. 9 group looked like the most complete team in the sport. Elliott still has winning pace, but others, most notably Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin, have surpassed him over the past month. Thursday night is a great chance for Elliott to step to the forefront.
Martin Truex Jr. (+550)
Symmes: Since 2012, Kansas has been one of Truex's best tracks. Since 2017, Truex has been a contender for the win in five of six races there. Truex swept the Kansas races in '17 and has added three more top-10s since, including a runner-up finish in 2018. In last year's fall race, Truex posted the best average green-flag speed en route to a sixth-place finish. The No. 19 team's performance on 1.5-mile tracks has been somewhat uneven this season, but Truex showed a lot of strength at Kentucky and Texas the past two weeks. That and recent history should bode well for him Thursday.
Ryan Blaney (8-1)
Symmes: Kansas is a 1.5-mile track, which means Blaney will be a factor Thursday. You could argue that Blaney and the No. 12 team currently have the best 1.5-mile program in the Cup Series, even though they've yet to close the deal. Blaney had the fastest car last weekend at Texas and one of the fastest cars the weekend prior at Kentucky. Strategy, circumstances and downright bad luck have kept him from Victory Lane on these types of tracks. Will this finally be his week? His recent luck at Kansas hasn't been great, with finishes of 21st or worst in three of the past four races there.
Willis: Thanks to the scheduling quirks that have been the 2020 season, the Cup Series is holding its third straight points race on a 1.5-mile track. So why not pick the driver who has looked the strongest in the previous two races? That would be Blaney, who was the fastest driver more than twice as often as any other driver in last weekend's race at Texas, losing the lead only because of a quirky caution late in the race. The week before at Kentucky, Blaney had the best average position throughout the race, only to finish sixth, but he still had the second-most fastest laps in the field.
Clay: During his three seasons with the Wood Brothers, Blaney showed well at Kansas. In five trips to the speedway, he garnered three top-5s and finished no worse than 14th. Those favorable results haven't followed him to Team Penske, but he has remained competitive, and there's nobody hotter than Blaney on 1.5-milers in 2020. He was well on his way to a potential victory Sunday at Texas, leading 150 laps before a late-race caution ruined his day on pit strategy. He continues to have the fastest car on 1.5-mile ovals, and he's sporting an average finish of 4.3 in his past six races on this track type.
Sleepers
Tyler Reddick (33-1)
Clay: Cole Custer might have a win to his name, but Reddick has been the rookie to watch in 2020, with six top-10 finishes. He enters Kansas with momentum on his side following a runner-up finish Sunday at Texas. That result was aided by favorable track position, but Reddick did his part in the waning laps to retain his spot in the order during a handful of anxiety-inducing restarts. Although officially a rookie, Reddick made a start for Richard Childress Racing at Kansas in May 2019 and managed the first top-10 of his career. It might take a strategy call to set the stage, but Reddick has enough talent to contend if presented with the opportunity in the closing laps.
Matt DiBenedetto (50-1)
Willis: This is an outright bargain for a driver who was firmly in the top five last week before a mistake by an inexperienced driver damaged Matty D's car and ruined his day. The week before, at another 1.5-mile track in Kentucky, DiBenedetto finished third. The Wood Brothers, with driver Ryan Blaney, had a top-5 finish in both Kansas races in 2017 and in four of the five races at the track with Blaney running for them. This is DiBenedetto's first season with the team after replacing Paul Menard, who isn't the level of driver of Blaney but did have a sixth-place run in the 21 car at Kansas in 2018.
Matt Kenseth (66-1)
McGee: The oddsmakers still don't know what to make of Kenseth's comeback, so they keep punting on his numbers. He has sleeper written all over him at Kansas, where he owns a pair of wins and three poles and is driving for a team that posted four top-10s in its past six Kansas races with Kyle Larson and with any luck would have won two of them.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Kansas City, Kansas, on Thursday for the Super Start Batteries 400 Presented by O'Reilly Auto Parts.
Austin Dillon held on for his first Cup series victory of the season on Sunday in Fort Worth, Texas. Who will take the checkered flag under the lights Thursday (7:30 p.m. ET) at Kansas Speedway?
ESPN.com NASCAR senior writer Ryan McGee, fantasy's Mike Clay, Stats & Info's Matthew Willis and editor Scott Symmes offer their best bets for the race.
Note: Odds from Caesars Sportsbook as of Tuesday, unless otherwise noted.
Best bets
Kevin Harvick (4-1)
Willis: Picking the favorite is so boring, but you know what's not boring? Winning. No driver has won more races (tied for most with Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson) or led more laps at Kansas Speedway than Harvick. All three of his wins at the track have come in the past 13 outings there. In those 13 races, he also has a trio of runner-up finishes and eight races with at least 50 laps led. One more note: No driver has led more laps on 1.5-mile tracks this season than Happy Harvick.
McGee: In the 20-year history of Kansas Speedway, only three drivers have earned three wins on the best racetrack to be built between a casino and an outlet mall. Jeff Gordon is retired. Jimmie Johnson hasn't won anywhere in three years. That brings us to Harvick, who has earned all three of his Kansas wins since 2013. The most recent one came in this race (OK, technically this race -- it was the spring date) in 2018, and he was on the pole for this event one year ago. The 2020 points and wins leader has been particularly ridiculous on intermediate tracks, with only one non-top-10 among his eight races on 1.5-mile-ish ovals, including fourth- and fifth-place runs in the previous two points-paying events at Kentucky and Texas. You might call tracks such as Kansas Speedway cookie cutters, but Happy calls them money-makers.
Chase Elliott (+550)
Symmes: Elliott won last week's All-Star Race in impressive fashion, but recent points-paying races haven't gone his way. A trip to Kansas could be just what he needs to turn the tide. Elliott has scored three straight top-5s at Kansas, including a victory in the 2018 playoffs. His average finish in the past four Kansas races is 4.75, the best in the Cup Series. When NASCAR resumed after the COVID-19 shutdown, Elliott and the No. 9 group looked like the most complete team in the sport. Elliott still has winning pace, but others, most notably Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin, have surpassed him over the past month. Thursday night is a great chance for Elliott to step to the forefront.
Martin Truex Jr. (+550)
Symmes: Since 2012, Kansas has been one of Truex's best tracks. Since 2017, Truex has been a contender for the win in five of six races there. Truex swept the Kansas races in '17 and has added three more top-10s since, including a runner-up finish in 2018. In last year's fall race, Truex posted the best average green-flag speed en route to a sixth-place finish. The No. 19 team's performance on 1.5-mile tracks has been somewhat uneven this season, but Truex showed a lot of strength at Kentucky and Texas the past two weeks. That and recent history should bode well for him Thursday.
Ryan Blaney (8-1)
Symmes: Kansas is a 1.5-mile track, which means Blaney will be a factor Thursday. You could argue that Blaney and the No. 12 team currently have the best 1.5-mile program in the Cup Series, even though they've yet to close the deal. Blaney had the fastest car last weekend at Texas and one of the fastest cars the weekend prior at Kentucky. Strategy, circumstances and downright bad luck have kept him from Victory Lane on these types of tracks. Will this finally be his week? His recent luck at Kansas hasn't been great, with finishes of 21st or worst in three of the past four races there.
Willis: Thanks to the scheduling quirks that have been the 2020 season, the Cup Series is holding its third straight points race on a 1.5-mile track. So why not pick the driver who has looked the strongest in the previous two races? That would be Blaney, who was the fastest driver more than twice as often as any other driver in last weekend's race at Texas, losing the lead only because of a quirky caution late in the race. The week before at Kentucky, Blaney had the best average position throughout the race, only to finish sixth, but he still had the second-most fastest laps in the field.
Clay: During his three seasons with the Wood Brothers, Blaney showed well at Kansas. In five trips to the speedway, he garnered three top-5s and finished no worse than 14th. Those favorable results haven't followed him to Team Penske, but he has remained competitive, and there's nobody hotter than Blaney on 1.5-milers in 2020. He was well on his way to a potential victory Sunday at Texas, leading 150 laps before a late-race caution ruined his day on pit strategy. He continues to have the fastest car on 1.5-mile ovals, and he's sporting an average finish of 4.3 in his past six races on this track type.
Sleepers
Tyler Reddick (33-1)
Clay: Cole Custer might have a win to his name, but Reddick has been the rookie to watch in 2020, with six top-10 finishes. He enters Kansas with momentum on his side following a runner-up finish Sunday at Texas. That result was aided by favorable track position, but Reddick did his part in the waning laps to retain his spot in the order during a handful of anxiety-inducing restarts. Although officially a rookie, Reddick made a start for Richard Childress Racing at Kansas in May 2019 and managed the first top-10 of his career. It might take a strategy call to set the stage, but Reddick has enough talent to contend if presented with the opportunity in the closing laps.
Matt DiBenedetto (50-1)
Willis: This is an outright bargain for a driver who was firmly in the top five last week before a mistake by an inexperienced driver damaged Matty D's car and ruined his day. The week before, at another 1.5-mile track in Kentucky, DiBenedetto finished third. The Wood Brothers, with driver Ryan Blaney, had a top-5 finish in both Kansas races in 2017 and in four of the five races at the track with Blaney running for them. This is DiBenedetto's first season with the team after replacing Paul Menard, who isn't the level of driver of Blaney but did have a sixth-place run in the 21 car at Kansas in 2018.
Matt Kenseth (66-1)
McGee: The oddsmakers still don't know what to make of Kenseth's comeback, so they keep punting on his numbers. He has sleeper written all over him at Kansas, where he owns a pair of wins and three poles and is driving for a team that posted four top-10s in its past six Kansas races with Kyle Larson and with any luck would have won two of them.