F1 Australian Grand Prix - Sunday March 25th 01-00 EST

**Optional** · 03-22-18, 07:21 PM

I'm in China and dont have internet capable of streaming it or a TV in the hotel that has all the practice action on

Hoping Ricciardo beats Verstappen and Red Bull on the podium as most of my interest.

And HAAS to do well would be nice too. One of them to finish in the points may be easier odds to bet as well. But agree Kimi nice and reliable and anything but a top 10 is unlikely without a crash for him.

**5mike5** · 03-22-18, 08:52 PM

im on Kimi FL. may take another

**Optional** · 03-22-18, 09:38 PM

Well that was a bit sad for our first practice session of the year.

Mercedes streets ahead, Ferrari and Red Bull streets ahead of rest of the field again. McLaren still cant get it together. Sauber still slow and Williams/ForceIndai looking suspiciously crappy as well.

**semibluff** · 03-22-18, 11:21 PM

Originally posted by Optional

Well that was a bit sad for our first practice session of the year.

Mercedes streets ahead, Ferrari and Red Bull streets ahead of rest of the field again. McLaren still cant get it together. Sauber still slow and Williams/ForceIndai looking suspiciously crappy as well.

No offence, but P1 was as expected. This is what the testing in Barcelona indicated:
Mercedes ahead and ultra reliable.
Red Bull and Ferrari close together but miles ahead of the 4th team. (Extended from last year).
McClaren and Renault battling to be 4th team.
Haas, Force 'whatever', and Toro Rosso battling to be 6th team. (Reliability questions with Honda).
Williams struggling badly in 9th.
Sauber looked to be 6 seconds off the pace in Barcelona. There was a doubt as to whether they'd be within 107% for Australia. Fortunately they're 'only' 3.5 seconds off the pace in P1. It will still likely be 5 seconds plus come qualifying and they may be lapped so often on Sunday they don't count as finishing the race.

Rain is predicted for Saturday qualifying so be wary of short odds on Hamilton.
I toyed with backing under 15.5 finishers with Sauber looking so bad and questions about the Toro Rosso reliability but a safety car could nix that completely. Kimi Räikkönen is now a best priced -400 to finish in the top 10. There's still some value in that. Worst case projections should be 16 top 10 finishes from 21 races. 18 top 10 finishes is what i'm expecting.

**Optional** · 03-23-18, 09:47 AM

Originally posted by semibluff

No offence, but P1 was as expected

Ok buddy, will start my own thread in future and not bother to comment on yours

Good luck with your -300 pops.

**semibluff** · 03-23-18, 01:19 PM

Originally posted by Optional

Ok buddy, will start my own thread in future and not bother to comment on yours

Good luck with your -300 pops.

Sorry if that came across as aggressive. It wasn't intended to be. P1 just reaffirmed what happened in winter testing is all.

**semibluff** · 03-23-18, 10:12 PM

P2 was closer at the top as teams showed a bit more of what they have. Mercedes still look the team to beat. Haas looked better as both Renault and McLaren had issues. Those 3 teams look best of the rest and they'll probably compete for 7th -12th place.

P3 is just starting. It's wet, (expected) so we won't get representative times. Qualifying is 3hours away. It doesn't look like it'll be completely dry for qualifying but who knows.

Daniel Ricciardo has a 3 place grid penalty for Sunday's race. Overtaking was tough last year and it will probably be tougher this year as the cars are faster. If he ends up starting a net 4th behind main rivals he'll be a +1400 chance to win. If he starts a net 9th he'll be about +10000 to win. Obviously this will also significantly hurt his podium chances. However, this shouldn't have a massive effect on his chances of a top 10 finish so if books overreact that could become a decent bet.

**Optional** · 03-24-18, 01:14 AM

The Dan grid penalty sucks but I bet it fires him up for Quali and he may even make one of those places back with the extra fire in the belly. Hoping anyway.

Nice to see Kimi drop in a stonking lap to start Q1 too

**semibluff** · 03-24-18, 05:16 AM

It was completely dry for qualifying so no real shocks in the performance shown. There isn't a lot of betting value left to be had as books have very heavy juice on F1 markets.

Bottas crashed in Q3 and while he is provisionally 10th on the grid he may have to take further penalties for gearbox changes etc. Even from 10th he'd be +10000 to win so definitely avoid taking the +6600 on him winning. He should finish in the top 10, (even if he starts last), but in a rebuilt car i'm not inclined to take -400. From 4th place Verstappen ought to be +950 as a break-even point but he's as short as +600 with 1 book. If there is value to be had on the race winner it's Räikkönen from 2nd place on the grid. You'd need to get the top price +900 for value as he's probably only a break-even bet at +830. Vettel at a best price +550 is probably only a break-even bet.

There was very little between the Haas, Renault, and McLaren cars. Renault had some handling issues and McLaren saw a reoccurrence of the overheating issues they had in winter testing. McLaren will start 11th and 12th, barring further grid penalties, but the car is still as good as anything outside of the big 3 teams. If Alonso can get to the end and he's outside the points it would not be a shock to see him pit late and go for the fastest lap on fresh tires. At +5000 he might be a fair bet, (maybe not +ev given the level of juice).

The Sauber and Williams are at the back but they were much closer to the midfield than was anticipated. Based on that i'm not inclined to bet the Under on the number of classified finishers.