AFL Round 14

[Coopertrooper]

No thread for it yet so I thought I'd make one! (Not sure how to get it across to Players Chat as well though? How does that work?)

Some good early value that I see is Collingwood -43.5 @ 2.1, but that is about all that really springs out. If you like the Hawks 40+ is at 2.80, which represents good value.

Looking at playing pies -43.5 x2 and a multi of hawks 20-39/pies -43.5/bombers -9.5 at odds of around 11.80 x1.

Any other good plays anyone has seen so far?

[Lookingtostart]

Brisbane with the day's break; 8-7, over Melbourne, at home (though after having travelled), -26.5 looks too good to be true, something funny there.

[benrama]

Some stats/info for tonights game I've compiled from rleague afl stats and pro stats.

Taking away games against the cellar dwellers ...
Hawthorn results
At MCG
W 20 Collingwood
L 2 Geelong
W 35 St Kilda
W 65 Brisbane


Other grounds
L 5 WCE
L 37 Sydney
W 56 Fremantle
W 115 North Melb
W 46 Port


Carlton results
At MCG
W 44 Richmond
W 60 Collingwood
L 30 Essendon


Other grounds
W 8 Fremantle
L 24 St Kilda
L 69 Adelaide
L 54 Port
L 12 Geelong
W 91 Brisbane

H2H history
Hawthorn won last 8, 13 of last 15, 9-3 at MCG


Relative stat advantages for Hawthorn:
+9% goals scored
+7% frees
+4% inside 50's
+4% marks

Relative stat advantages for Carlton:
+10% hit-outs
+3% contested marks

With Lewis back and potentially marking Judd, and without Murphy and Waite, I see Carlton potentially getting dominated in this game. Carlton however showed some promise against West Coast and Geelong, and the pressure is on them having only beaten Melbourne in their last 5.

I'm going to go with Hawthorn 1-39 here for 1 unit with a hedge on 40+ to get my money back if it's a blow-out.

Also looking at a Pies/Adelaide/Essendon multi

[Immaculate]

i rekon a good multi of
Hawthorn Straight


Collingwood Straight


Adelaide Straight


Essendon Straight


Brisbane

[Coopertrooper]

I saw an interesting bet of all sides over 39.5, odds are something like 780-1, it is rare that all games are blow-outs but this round is as likely as any, so the odds are probably good value for that!

I like the over tonight, a chance of a bit of rain, but the blues can be exposed by a good side, and are capable of scoring easily on an open ground with their speed. Should be hard for both sets of defence, will be jumping on, probably x2.

[Coopertrooper]

Rain has passed, not sure how much fell in the city, but wouldn't be much more than 5mm. Definitely on the over, GL tonight all

[Coopertrooper]

Over hit, missed my 20-39 margin by less than 2 goals, and should have taken my own advice on the hawks 40+

Square after tonight, hopefully the pies can kick things off tomorrow!

[Immaculate]

I followed you on the 40+.. should have taken it

Pies 40 + imo

[Lookingtostart]

Those who bet on the Crows line, how's your heart? Mullet smothered by another mullet to cover.

[Coopertrooper]

Bloody hell, we dominated around the ground but our forwards were terrible today, only got to 29 points. Went to the game and had a last minute hedge of pies 30-39 into adelaide -16.5, missed that by 1 point and I wasn't happy

Small play on the bombers 30-39 for me tonight, don't like anything so far!

[hedgejob]

Those who bet on the Crows line, how's your heart? Mullet smothered by another mullet to cover.

[Lookingtostart]

Haha hedgebob, I wouldn't have been able to watch.