Nobel Prize in Economics LOCK
Just said 'lock' to get your attention.
I like Barro at +1250. The guys with worse odds are too young and/or haven't shaken the field much. But they are known from their articles in big newspapers/WSJ.
Barro has done a lot of solid foundation shaking work for decades. Nobel prizes usually go to old farts, too, not young guys halfway through their careers.
Also, http://ideas.repec.org/top/top.person.all.html
Note Barro is above several guys who are already Nobel winners