Big $$$ Play on Futures - League/AFL

**benrama** · 02-13-12, 07:05 AM

Beni - agreed you have to look carefully at each team the year after. Any team in particular you find concerning for backing up this season? Teams with good coaches like Bellamy or Bennett simply do not capitulate, agreed?

Kingsr - I'm a fan of momentum and the power of confidence in footy, and I think a few early wins or losses can significantly alter these. The Hawks are a solid bet for the Top 4 and pretty much free money for the Top 8, I'm just saying that if they come into the season not ready then they could be 1-3 going into round 5 and you're already sweating a top 4 finish.

But looks like we are pretty much on the same page.

**kingsr** · 02-13-12, 11:26 PM

Melbourne Storm - When will their dynasty finish? I still can't get the Manly VS Melb GF out of my head (2008?) where Cam Smith didn't play...they were pumped 40-0 by Manly. If Cam happens to be injured for a few weeks/months, the Melb top 8 bet will be looking shaky. He's a massive part of that team! This is my concern with the Melb Top 8...I actually feel safer with a Newcastle Top 8.

**brettels** · 02-14-12, 12:03 AM

Melbourne is a guarantee for the 8, still such a good team!

**kingsr** · 02-17-12, 06:14 AM

Careful betting WC top 8...Mark Le Cras is GOOONE for the season!

**kingsr** · 02-18-12, 01:31 AM

Titans to finish in the bottom 4/Hawks Top 4 = $4.60! Yes please

**benrama** · 02-18-12, 02:31 AM

Yea, big blow for sure. The WC home ground advantage is so great however that I still don't see top 8 being much of an issue - looks like the futures odds haven't yet budged to reflect Le Cras being out.

I'm going to wait till the NAB cup has finished before locking in my future bet - I'm only going to make one and make it large!

**kingsr** · 02-18-12, 02:45 AM

Hey Ben, if you're waiting for NAB to finish, I take it you're not doing a NRL futures bet? NRL starts March 1, while AFL starts March 24.

What you think of Titans to finish bottom 4?

**Beniphone** · 02-18-12, 03:07 AM

Titans 2010 kinda worry me, they hadnt changed much from the 2011 yet played so poor, seems like princes form determines how they go.

**hawley** · 02-18-12, 03:11 AM

Titans made a few notable signings but i'm not big on Myles or Idris...in fact I think they are both extremely overrated.

They have lost Friend and Campbell so there is huge pressure on Scotty Prince this season.

I don't think they will be great but bottom 4 will be close

Sharks and Panthers will both be down there IMO

**Beniphone** · 02-18-12, 03:18 AM

Panthers
Titans
Raiders
Roosters

**hawley** · 02-18-12, 03:21 AM

I wouldn't write the Raiders off just yet.

They have a big pack and with Campese and Dugan there they have points in them. When they get a roll on at home they can pump almost any side by 40+

**kingsr** · 02-18-12, 03:24 AM

Originally posted by hawley

Titans made a few notable signings but i'm not big on Myles or Idris...in fact I think they are both extremely overrated.

They have lost Friend and Campbell so there is huge pressure on Scotty Prince this season.

I don't think they will be great but bottom 4 will be close

Sharks and Panthers will both be down there IMO

Agree both Idris and Myles very overated. I actually think Titans will get the spoon or be close to it. TAB has them at $2.30 to finish 13-16th in the reg season.

**kingsr** · 02-18-12, 03:26 AM

Originally posted by Beniphone

Panthers
Titans
Raiders
Roosters

My bottom 4 but in this order:

13. Rooster
14. Pantherr
15. Raider
16. Titans

**hawley** · 02-18-12, 03:27 AM

Originally posted by kingsr

Agree both Idris and Myles very overated. I actually think Titans will get the spoon or be close to it. TAB has them at $2.30 to finish 13-16th in the reg season.

Actually have to agree now I think about it

A lot of holes in their squad, especially throughout the spine.

**kingsr** · 02-18-12, 03:28 AM

Originally posted by hawley

I wouldn't write the Raiders off just yet.

They have a big pack and with Campese and Dugan there they have points in them. When they get a roll on at home they can pump almost any side by 40+

I'm not convinced. Alan Tounge was the backbone of that team, similar to Cam Smith. Without his leadership they will suffer.

**kingsr** · 02-18-12, 03:31 AM

Originally posted by hawley

Actually have to agree now I think about it

A lot of holes in their squad, especially throughout the spine.

Yep. Aweful recruitment imo, massive internal club problems and they have a terrible team.

**benrama** · 02-18-12, 06:13 AM

Originally posted by kingsr

Hey Ben, if you're waiting for NAB to finish, I take it you're not doing a NRL futures bet? NRL starts March 1, while AFL starts March 24.

What you think of Titans to finish bottom 4?

Titans have a totally different team in 2012 so makes it hard to predict how they'll go - I rate Myles as an acquisition (Idris - not so much) and Titans get decent crowds to their home games which makes them hard to beat at Robina. They are obviously weak at key positions like five eighth and fullback, I think they probably do finish in the bottom 4, but I'm not sure there's value there - too unpredictable for my liking.

And yep - I'll be on a NRL/AFL parlay - can't do multiple futures bets within the NRL or AFL in the books I use - and yea I meant to say when the first round NAB games are finished. Not that I expect it to change my opinion much - just the more information the better. Noticed that the futures odds on Sportsbet are now out to $1.55 for WCE which is about right.

Thinking about it some more, losing what is probably their best player in Lecras has to make them a no play now.

Probably just going to go the conservative route and take Hawks top 8 /Storm top 8 combo, only pays $1.73, but I have to look at it as a 73% return in 6 months which is better than the shitstorm that is the sharemarket has been doing for me.

**kingsr** · 02-18-12, 06:29 AM

Originally posted by benrama

Titans have a totally different team in 2012 so makes it hard to predict how they'll go - I rate Myles as an acquisition (Idris - not so much) and Titans get decent crowds to their home games which makes them hard to beat at Robina. They are obviously weak at key positions like five eighth and fullback, I think they probably do finish in the bottom 4, but I'm not sure there's value there - too unpredictable for my liking.

And yep - I'll be on a NRL/AFL parlay - can't do multiple futures bets within the NRL or AFL in the books I use - and yea I meant to say when the first round NAB games are finished. Not that I expect it to change my opinion much - just the more information the better. Noticed that the futures odds on Sportsbet are now out to $1.55 for WCE which is about right.

Thinking about it some more, losing what is probably their best player in Lecras has to make them a no play now.

Probably just going to go the conservative route and take Hawks top 8 /Storm top 8 combo, only pays $1.73, but I have to look at it as a 73% return in 6 months which is better than the shitstorm that is the sharemarket has been doing for me.

I know the feeling, which is why I am opting out and looking at real estate in the USA for investment. 10-15% net yeilds will do me fine

Better thank what the sahre market is doing and much better than bank interest! Going to the states soon to find me a good ground team there. Already starting to network with investors and doing my due dilligence. So far looks good

**benrama** · 02-18-12, 06:47 AM

Originally posted by kingsr

I know the feeling, which is why I am opting out and looking at real estate in the USA for investment. 10-15% net yeilds will do me fine

Better thank what the sahre market is doing and much better than bank interest! Going to the states soon to find me a good ground team there. Already starting to network with investors and doing my due dilligence. So far looks good

Nice! I've looked into it too, good opportunity. I'm still kicking myself for not getting into China when I had a chance, and when it wasn't so tightly regulated. One of my good mates lives in Beijing and he said he had mates that were flipping properties every 6 months for 100% profits - insane!

Most of my money is tied up in Ubank at the moment to be honest - got totally out of the share market, got sick of going nowhere (long term patient stock investing is not my thing), and with the Euro zone in a mess, and the US technically bankrupt, can't see much changing any time soon. I'm in the process of looking to short some tech stocks (Pandora, Groupon and Linkedin) - that'll probably be my only market play in the next 12-24 months.

Apart from that looking to start some import-export business on the side - only way to really get ahead is to do your own business.

Good luck with the real estate, be interested to hear how the process works in the US.

**kingsr** · 02-18-12, 06:52 AM

Thanks Benny, yep I'll keep you posted. Do you have FB? PM me your details and ill add you...

**kingsr** · 02-18-12, 06:54 AM

Flipping property for 100% profit after 6 months

WOW! Gotta take the risk, to get ahead!

**garygroundwork** · 02-21-12, 03:57 AM

I like West Coast/ Melbourne storm to finish top 8.

**angelo63** · 02-21-12, 04:11 AM

I agree with The Knights as a safer bet for the top 8 than the Storm, 1 injury to any of the top three stormers and it will be all hands on deck.

**angelo63** · 02-21-12, 04:13 AM

Here is a preview for the Storm:
Storm
2011 Finished 4th
The Melbourne Storm had a magnificent season in 2011 ending with a loss to the Warriors in the Preliminary Final. The Storm were minor premiers and had a 12 week winning run during the season. Craig Bellamy has always had his team in a competitive mood and when on a roll they are practically unbeatable. The ghosts of the 2010 salary cap debacle still haunt the storm and in turn affects their playing roster.
Players In:
Jason Ryles, Ryan Hoffman, Will Chambers, Micheal Greenfield,Jack Afamasaga,Shea Moylan,Mitchell Garbutt.
Players Out:
Chase Stanley (St. George Illarwara Dragons), Beau Champion (Gold Coast Titans), Adam Blair (Wests Tigers), Atelea Vea (St. George Illarwara Dragons), Adam Woolnough (retired), Troy Thompson (retired) and Dane Chisholm (Wests Tigers).
Losing Blair and Beau Champion will affect the Storms attacking ability, the recruitment of Ryles is a risk with his penchant for giving away a lot of penalties not something the Storm will appreciate.Coach Bellamy will no doubt try to change his game but Ryles has been doing the same silly mistakes for over decade.

Can the Storm win the NRL Premiership in 2012?
No, The Storm are a very good team , who are coached by one of the best , but they simply are lacking the forward power to physically match it with some of the bigger teams such as the Warriors . The big 3 of Slater , Smith and Cronk will no doubt have the Storm competitive in any match , but if an injury is sustained by any of the big three the Storm will struggle.

Overview: Top 8

**benrama** · 02-21-12, 07:14 AM

Hey kings - sorry don't really use FB, let us know when you've got some progress and I'll fire you through my email.

10 days of final research for my future play. I think I've changed my mind on WCE being ruled out due to Lecras, they are not reliant on him like they were in 2010 for their goal scoring and as I said - their home ground advantage is huge and they have a favourable schedule. The odds have now adjusted nicely so that the value of losing Lecras is captured.

Bloody Storm have now solidified into 1.33 to make Top 8 so their value has mostly gone. Can't agree with the preview above, with Greenfield and Ryles, they probably have the biggest pack in close to a decade - and they are on record as specifically beefing up given what happened with the Warriors - see e.g. http://www.theroar.com.au/2012/02/21...-storm-go-big/.

Bromwich is a young star for the Storm in the forwards, and Ryles adequately replaces Blair - Greenfield is a bit well, Green, but Bellamy turns so-so players into solid ones. With then Slater, Cronk, Smith, Nielson, et al in the backs and halves, the only risk I see to the Storm is losing not one star but 2 or 3 - but then again any side would struggle losing it's top 2 or 3 players.

There's a reason they are 1.33 equal favourites now for Top 8.

Newcastle top 8 looks solid but they have a whole coaching change to adjust to - that takes time and with their season schedule they could come under some early pressure - I haven't ruled them out, but I make it a general rule not to bet BIG on the teams I support - robs the enjoyment of watching the games and I'm in sports betting to increase not decrease entertainment. I don't need the money, it's just the icing on the cake

As for other options in the NRL, Tigers and Warriors I just can't trust, Tigers are my "second team" and I've seen the roller coaster too much over the years (and they are now also $1.33 so no value anyway). Warriors have the talent but are also too volatile for my liking. Brisbane I can't be sure how they'll react with Lockyer, and Dragons same without Bennett. NQ at times can be horrid, especially away from home.

That leaves one option, Manly. Yea they had a coaching change but I think I could bloody coach them to the Top 8 given their talent - even after losing Hopoate (they gain back Williams). Any team that has Lussick on the interchange goes deep, very deep.

Their odds have drifted out nicely given what happened in Leeds and the loss to the Sharks.

Given all the above, I think I've decided to split my futures, one conservative and one aggressive.

Conservative (60% of futures bet): Storm/Hawthorn - both Top 8 at $1.66
Aggressive (40% of futures bet): Manly / WCE - both Top 8 at $2.17

With effective combined odds of $1.86 if both hit. If I lose my aggressive bet I basically break even, and if I lose my conservative I'm down slightly. Obviously losing both would be a disaster, but that's the risk you take.

Anyone know if the Top 8 futures are offered during the season?

**garygroundwork** · 02-22-12, 04:31 AM

yeah mate they are offered.. AFL anyway so im assuming NRL. they just get ridiculously short fast.

**kingsr** · 02-22-12, 11:51 AM

Yes they are offered during the season. Beni grab the hawks top 4 at $2.00 with TAB, it's a fukn steal!

**brettels** · 03-01-12, 10:59 PM

KingsR--Explain to me how to get screenshots up please?

**kingsr** · 03-01-12, 11:44 PM

Originally posted by brettels

KingsR--Explain to me how to get screenshots up please?

Click the 'attachemnt' logo when in the 'reply to post' mode. It looks like a paper clip. A new window will pop-up to upload your pics. Press 'add files' then choose the pic you want, then click 'upload'. Once it uploads it will appear at the bottom of the window. Simply click 'insert inline' and it will appear in your message.

IT WONT WORK IN 'quick reply" MODE!

**brettels** · 03-01-12, 11:52 PM

thank you!!!

**kingsr** · 03-01-12, 11:53 PM

No prob! Now post some slutttty girls for us to perve at

**garygroundwork** · 04-11-12, 05:46 PM

ok so 7 and 3 rounds in respectively (NRL/AFL) what do u like now?

storm are a certainty...but too short atm for anthing. who else will finish top 4 in the NRL??? broncos/bulldogs?

extremely even atm top 4 in the AFL-west coast, geelong, hawks, collingwood, carlton. anyone of these could finish top 4 or slip out to 5th.

**Coopertrooper** · 04-12-12, 02:18 AM

Wouldn't be putting the house on this... but I think it is value.

There is a market on the Vic TAB on who will gain the most points (in terms of win = 4 points, draw = 2 points) over the season, but it is handicapped.

They have GWS currently at +74, with odds of $4.50, which I think is overs. For the +74 to get up, you add GWS's wins and the top teams losses (and draws), and there only needs to be a total of 4 GWS wins or top side losses for it to get up.

It is so tough to go through undefeated, and already cats/hawks/pies have all had one loss each, and we are only 2 rounds in! GWS only need to win a couple of games and this should get up, I think it is worth a look!

EDIT: Forgot to add that the hawks are +6, and if they are the top team it will make it tougher, but the pies are off scratch, and the cats off 2. Looking through the rest of the field, it is tough to see too many threats. Think it is very good value.

**benrama** · 04-12-12, 03:06 AM

I'm certainly happy with my futures so far:

Conservative (60% of futures bet): Storm/Hawthorn - both Top 8 at $1.66
Aggressive (40% of futures bet): Manly / WCE - both Top 8 at $2.17

Sharks at $1.60 look good - between now and the end of the season they have:

Byes: x 2
Worst teams: Eels x 2/Titans/Roosters/Panthers
Middle tier teams: Souths x2/Canberra x2 /Warriors x2/Dragons/Knights/NQ
Top teams: Storm x2/Bulldogs/Broncos

They'd need another 20 points to get top 8 based on last season. If they won their 5 games against the worst teams, lost all the games against the elite, then they'd need to win 3 out of 9 against the middle tier - seems like a pretty solid bet IMO.

Only AFL future I think has some value is Adelaide to not make the Top 8 at $2.90 - I think they are highly over-rated and Hawthorn should crush them this weekend so this may be as generous odds as you'll get.

**garygroundwork** · 04-12-12, 08:35 PM

Originally posted by benrama

I'm certainly happy with my futures so far:

Conservative (60% of futures bet): Storm/Hawthorn - both Top 8 at $1.66
Aggressive (40% of futures bet): Manly / WCE - both Top 8 at $2.17

Sharks at $1.60 look good - between now and the end of the season they have:

Byes: x 2
Worst teams: Eels x 2/Titans/Roosters/Panthers
Middle tier teams: Souths x2/Canberra x2 /Warriors x2/Dragons/Knights/NQ
Top teams: Storm x2/Bulldogs/Broncos

They'd need another 20 points to get top 8 based on last season. If they won their 5 games against the worst teams, lost all the games against the elite, then they'd need to win 3 out of 9 against the middle tier - seems like a pretty solid bet IMO.

Only AFL future I think has some value is Adelaide to not make the Top 8 at $2.90 - I think they are highly over-rated and Hawthorn should crush them this weekend so this may be as generous odds as you'll get.

yeah i know it's early but your futures look home..nice work

i agree adelaide are overrated..however i think they will make the 8 simply becuase of their draw, they play GWS, The SUNS and Port adelaide twice. they will also be hard to beat at home. i wouldnt be putting money on them to miss the eight.